Free racing tips: Best bets for Southwell & Ascot

Racing betting tips: Friday December 18

1pt e.w. Heron in 12.25 Southwell at 7/1 (1/5 1,2,3) - minimum 6/1

1pt win Chazza in 12.45 Ascot at 8/1 - minimum 13/2

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Change of surface to pay - 12.25 Southwell

A couple caught the eye here. Mister Universum was one, given he was winning a Class 3 handicap over hurdles in the summer from a mark of 125, yet turns up here (having changed yards in the meantime) off just 57 after three poor efforts this autumn.

He’s never tried this surface before but if he handles it, he could look thrown in. That is a lot to take on trust, but a market move from a yard that can land a touch would make him more interesting, and he’s not one to ignore completely given he’s been chalked up at 50/1.

HERON has no such worries, having hosed up in a 0-60 off top weight on his first try over C&D and is 9lb lower today. It goes without saying that’s because he’s on the downgrade, but he has dropped hints in two starts this autumn that all is not lost, and he was noted staying on well at Chelmsford last time, albeit posing no win threat.

The deeper surface here will suit him better than polytrack as he’s bred to be a dirt performer, being by top-class US dirt runner Quality Road, and such horses tend to be much better suited to Fibresand than other AW surfaces in the UK.

Chazza hazza chance – 12.45 Ascot

CHAZZA has form on heavy ground, and looks well treated having gone up 4lb for an excellent second to the progressive Breffniboy at Leicester last time.

The winner overcame the run of the race to win a competitive event at Cheltenham last week, and the collateral form is very strong, with the first three at Leicester all coming off a win, and third-placed When You’re Ready runner-up in a better quality handicap at Taunton next time.

Leicester has some parallels with Ascot in that it’s quite a stiff test from the home turn when the going is testing, and both are right-handed tracks where it’s no advantage to race against the inside rail.

Chazza was racing over a bare two miles at Leicester, but is a point-to-point winner who is proven over further, and both his background and pedigree point to him showing improved for at this trip.

This is a tougher race on paper, but he was unlucky to run into one of the calibre of Breffniboy at Leicester, and remains on the right side of the handicapper as a result of that, the assessor revisiting the Leicester race and raising him a further 2lb, but that mark not due to kick in until Saturday.

It’s also worth noting that he handed out a beating to Llandinabo Lad in a heavy-ground bumper at Bangor last season. That gelding landed a Listed contest over hurdles at Haydock recently to add further depth to the selection’s form on a testing surface.

Published at 2110 GMT on 17/12/20

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