Matt Brocklebank tipped Fighting Fifth Hurdle winner No So Sleepy last weekend and is back with a look ahead to Friday’s action from Cheltenham.
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Value Bet tips: Friday, December 15
1pt e.w. Skytastic in 1.15 Cheltenham at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt win Sam Brown in 2.25 Cheltenham at 12/1 (General)
Sky offering pick of the value
A few good betting heats should make for interesting viewing at Cheltenham on Friday, with the ground expected to be soft and not a whole lot worse after Thursday’s forecast showers didn’t really materialise.
The first race on ITV4 from Prestbury Park (they’re also showing Bangor’s 1.30 and 2.05 which haven’t really captured my imagination) is the Catesby Estates Handicap Hurdle, a race I vividly recall Starluck winning in 2014 after he’d slipped right back down the weights.
Others, such as Al Dancer in 2018, have won this race as novices on their way up to greater things and if there’s one in that sort of category this time around it’s most likely to be Nicky Henderson’s Doddiethegreat, who defied a two-year layoff to win Ascot’s ‘Introductory’ hurdle last month.
He did it quite stylishly too, and his mark of 131 looks manageable now switched to handicaps. The lure of an unbeaten record is bound to see him over-bet, however, and I wouldn’t be getting too carried away as connections look to bring him back just 21 days on from the reappearance run.
In Henderson’s defence, the trainer has sent out nine other hurdle winners returning from 600-plus days off the track since 1997 and five of them managed to follow up on their next start (all within three weeks) so don’t read much into the ‘bounce factor’ nonsense, but it will be the softest ground Doddiethegreat has encountered which is surely a lot more pertinent.
The fact he’s never been to Cheltenham before is neither here nor there in reality too, but it is true that he’s only ever raced on right-handed tracks to this point so that’s undoubtedly another fresh challenge for the horse.
At the odds I’d rather chance SKYTASTIC, who was formerly with Sam Thomas and (owner) Dai Walters but has made the move to Ben Pauling’s yard after things went pear-shaped during his novice chase campaign last season.
In his defence, he only had three runs over fences so it’s not like he was over-raced, but he obviously didn’t take too kindly to the discipline and now has quite a bit to prove all over again having been highly regarded in his youth.
Unbeaten in bumpers before winning his first two over hurdles, his only other outing over timber – prior to last month’s comeback effort – came in a Grade 1 at Aintree when sent off just 11/2, so it’s fair to suggest he probably has some unfinished business at this game.
The aforementioned reappearance ended in him being well beaten in a handicap hurdle over two miles and five furlongs here at the November Meeting, but on second viewing I didn’t think he ran all that badly, arguably showing a bit too much enthusiasm early on and leading the field until touching down after the third-last.
He got tired up the hill, but Beau Morgan ensured the horse avoided a hard race and the assessor has been quite quick to drop him another 3lb to a mark of 121. You couldn’t really argue Skytastic is thrown in on his old form but he’s getting that way now and while Pauling can clearly get one ready, this horse’s SP (22/1) suggests the recent run may have been a bit of a fact-finding mission.
The early keenness has prompted an immediate drop back in trip which I like and although there’s a bit of competition for the lead in this, prominent racers do tend to outperform market expectations an awful lot in handicaps on the New Course.
Brown not to be missed
The other one currently offering a bit of value is SAM BROWN in the Unibet Middle Distance Chase Series Veterans’ Handicap Chase.
He’s never run at Cheltenham before, which may come as a bit of a surprise to some as he doesn’t mind an undulating track (won at Lingfield and Plumpton in his youth) and should still have the requisite class to give a good account under top weight in a race of this nature.
Things have been quite tough for him since he bolted up by 15 lengths from Shan Blue at Aintree in April 2022, but he’s now only 3lb higher than that running off 150 and if back to anything like the form that saw him beaten just four lengths by Bravemansgame on his seasonal return in last year’s Charlie Hall Chase, I suspect he’d gobble this lot up and spit them out.
Sam Brown found things happening all too quickly on this year’s comeback in the Badger Beer but that featured a couple of unexposed types including Anthony Honeyball stablemate Blackjack Magic, who went on to win the race from another eight-year-old in Threeunderthrufive.
Sam Brown has been unlucky with a few falls over the years, not least in the Irish Grand National when leading and looking in with every chance before coming down two from the finish. That was his first try in blinkers and the same headgear is back now having been left off for Wincanton.
The Punchestown effort was only this April and he’s running off the same mark here too so if he can build on the initial run back this season then he’s definitely over-priced as one of the outsiders of the field.
Published at 1500 BST on 14/12/23
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