Timeform Daily Racing Tips | Tuesday 11 March

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Cheltenham

1.20 1 pt – 11 William Munny

For a trainer who’s dominated the Cheltenham Festival like no other it’s surprising that Willie Mullins' recent record in the Supreme isn’t better. Yes, he’s won it a couple of times in the last decade, but during that time he’s also been responsible for Min, Melon, Getabird, Asterion Forlonge, Dysart Dynamo, Facile Vega and Tullyhill, all of whom failed to justify their positions at the head of the betting. As such, we probably shouldn’t be that afraid of taking on Kopek des Bordes at such a short price. Admittedly, he was hugely impressive when running away with the Brave Inca in early-February and there’s obviously a chance he could be the real deal, but at the same time it shouldn’t be forgotten just how poorly he’d jumped when making a successful hurdling debut over the same C&D on Boxing Day. Not all inexperienced horses cope with the fevered atmosphere of the Festival, especially ones that may be on the cusp of being overly keen, and at the prices we’d rather take a chance of William Munny taking his form to a new level faced with the prospect of a strongly-run race with the emphasis more on speed than stamina. He’s certainly blessed with a lot of the former, ridden prominently when defeated by Workahead and Kawaboomga on his first two starts in maiden hurdles then looking much more effective when patiently ridden and landing the odds by a wide margin in a listed event at Punchestown three weeks ago. Admittedly, some of the opposition that day weren’t at home over the trip, but William Munny has long since shaped like a horse who could come into his own faced with the kind of test he’ll get here, like Kopek des Bordes fitted with a first-time hood and hopefully settled off a strong pace before working his way into things approaching two out.

2.00 No Bet Advised

It’s a very grim state of affairs that, even after the demise of the Turners, Britain can manage just two representatives in the Arkle this year. Admittedly, Sir Gino is missing through injury, but even so it’s almost painful looking back to the early-to-mid 2000s when Well Chief accounted for 15 rivals, Contraband won a 19-runner race and Voy Por Ustedes, Monet’s Garden and Foreman filled the first three places in a 14-runner event. Lack of runners tends to lead to a lack of betting opportunities and that’s definitely the case so far as the 2025 Arkle is concerned. Yes, there will doubtless be plenty willing to take the short odds on Majborough following up his Triumph success twelve months on, and good luck to those who do. But taking very short prices about inexperienced novice chasers around Cheltenham isn’t for us and, whilst we can see the case for opposing him with the accurate jumping L'Eau du Sud, it’s surely the case that Majborough has a fair bit more ability provided his jumping holds up. All in all, it’s a rare race at the meeting we’d rather sit out completely.

2.40 1 pt win – 14 Happygolucky & 7 Crebilly

The Ultima is one race during the week in which British-trained runners have managed to swim successfully against the tide of Irish domination and the wait for a raider dating back to Dun Doire’s 2006 can continue for another year. Britain has the weight of numbers as usual but home-trained runners also form the bulk of a shortlist headed – at the prices – by a pair of previous Festival handicap chase seconds bidding to make amends this time around, with Myretown the closest one to nosing his way into the staking plan otherwise but rejected as his price continues to shorten. Prior Festival form aside, the chosen pair boast different profiles, with Crebilly more of an up-and-coming type and Happygolucky something of a wildcard seeking to recapture the sort of form that had seen him push Vintage Clouds closest when sent off favourite for this back in 2021. Regardless of their backgrounds, the handicapping case for both is clear; Happygolucky finds himself 7 lb lower than in that edition of this race and Crebilly 2 lb below the mark from which he shaped so well in last year’s Plate. Happygolucky has been seen only four times since ending that campaign by going one better in the Freebooter at Aintree, and that fragility is clearly a hefty concern, but his price compensates sufficiently for the negatives and he does arrive having shaped perfectly well returning from another long lay-off for a new yard (formerly with Kim Bailey) over an inadequate trip back at this track on Trials’ Day, fading into seventh but beaten only seventeen lengths. Crebilly, meanwhile, has got three runs under his belt coming in but has given the strong impression that Cheltenham is the day that matters and he’s certainly worth another try at this trip on ground likely to be far less testing than when a weakening seventh in the latest running of the Aintree staying handicap chase, Crebilly will have more fences to clear than at the meeting last year but, against that, the likely slower tempo of the race should mean there’s less pressure on his sometimes suspect technique.

3.20 1 pt – 6 Joyeuse (without Lossiemouth)

It’s very hard to oppose Lossiemouth now that she’s – entirely predictably – defending her crown against her own sex rather than having a shot at the Champion. Those who want to do so are presumably using her heavy fall at Leopardstown as part of the reasoning, and clearly she does have to prove that hasn’t left a mark, but the bottom line is that she’s been dominant on each of her three visits to Cheltenham and stands head and shoulders above her rivals on ratings. We’re looking to the betting without her, and it’s Joyeuse that stands out in that market. Yes, her win in the big handicap hurdle at Newbury (formerly the Betfair) came from a mark of just 123 and she needs to take another step forward to reach the level of Jade de Grugy and July Flower, but that was just her fourth run over hurdles and the fifth of her life, and to win such a competitive affair so comprehensively – sprinting clear on the run-in – marks her down as a mare well capable of mixing it at this level. She’s going forward quickly, her speed may well be an asset in a race in which it isn’t obvious where the pace will come from, and her trainer is the only one to have broken the Irish stranglehold in this race since the very first running way back in 2008. She makes a fair bit of appeal in the ‘without’ market, and we certainly wouldn’t put anyone off the 3/1 in the ‘without Lossiemouth and Jade de Grugy’ market if they can get on (only one firm currently priced up).

4.00 1 pt – 4 State Man (without Constitution Hill)

The key question leading up this year’s Champion Hurdle is how much of Constitution’s outstanding ability remains, and how far removed from it he can be in order to still land the odds. And backing a horse even of his rare level at such a short price when the likely reasons for a defeat would be easy to call to mind isn’t a pleasant betting experience. Therefore, take him out of the equation and look to play the ‘without favourite’ market, in which the prices would perhaps wrongly suggest the outcome between old rivals Brighterdaysahead and State Man can go only one way. Granted, State Man did run a shocker over Christmas, left with only a distant view of a mare posting a top-drawer hurdling performance, while his subsequent DRF win that saw him left in an unassailable lead after the fall of duelling stablemate Lossiemouth clearly isn’t robust evidence he’s back on song, but it isn’t that long back that he burst to the front past Brighterdaysahead in the Morgiana Hurdle until race fitness seemed to play a big role in deciding the outcome. Should Brighterdaysahead’s Leopardstown rout prove a flash in the pan – and she was turned over by an inferior rival in Golden Ace in the Dawn Run at the meeting last season – then reigning Champion Hurdler State Man is much closer to her than the market might indicate.

4.50 1 pt ew – 5 Total Look & 21 Hot Fuss

Unsurprisingly there are loads of unexposed hurdlers in the Fred Winter and finding a well-handicapped one mightn’t be sufficient to ensure a return on each-way wagers, even with several firms paying 6 places on such bets. In what is something of a departure from the norm in recent years, the top two in the Triumph Hurdle betting are trained in Britian, and it could be that the domestic juvenile form is stronger than it has been for a little while – the last five winners of the Triumph and last seven of this race have been trained across the Irish Sea – and that gives more confidence in Hot Fuss, who looks potentially very well handicapped on his Flat form. That Flat form even includes a ready success at Southwell recently which should mean he arrives here in peak condition having qualified for this with three runs before the end of December, which include getting much closer to East India Dock than anything has managed subsequently.

Given that just over half the field is trained in Ireland it makes sense to have one of those on side too, and Total Look fits the bill nicely. Progressive on the Flat, this looks to have been the aim all along since starting out over hurdles, even having a sighter of Cheltenham (the New Course, admittedly) in December, before really catching the eye in a juvenile handicap at Punchestown last time. Admittedly he’ll have to jump more slickly than he did there, but first-time cheekpieces ought to help with that, and he left the impression that he had a fair bit left to give that day with the way he rattled home having lost his place before the home turn.

5.20 1 pt – 13 Gericault Roque

The rights and wrongs of altering the race conditions of the NH Chase can be argued until the cows come home, but even the most ardent of traditionalists would have to admit that the first renewal of the race as a novice handicap for professional riders has resulted in a cracking turnout, especially when viewed against the backdrop of some recent renewals in its old guise. At the head of the market Haiti Couleurs and Transmission represent strong form and are closely tied in, Now Is The Hour has the look of a horse that’s had this has his aim for some considerable time, whilst Captain Cody is one of only two Willie Mullins’ representatives in the race and has been shaping as though this first try at a marathon trip will see him potentially improve. This could be the time that Gericault Roque finally bags himself a valuable handicap, however. David Pipe’s 9-y-o is very hard to ignore from a handicapping point of view, 8 lb lower than when third in the 2022 Coral Gold Cup and 7 lb lower than when beating all bar Corach Rambler in the Ultima the same year. He returned from more than two years off with an encouraging effort at Windsor in mid-January and, whilst obviously hoping he goes the right way from that comeback, he’s wisely been given plenty of time to recover from it and, as a notably sound jumper and uncomplicated ride, Gericault Roque has all the right qualities for a race of this nature.

You can access the TV Focus selections and rationale at 5pm the evening before racing for £7.50 on the Timeform website.

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