Timeform TV Focus: ITV racing tips on Saturday

The Timeform TV Focus team provide their best bets on all the ITV action!

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Kelso

1.10 1 pt – 2 Helnwein 7/4 general

Helnwein has been expensive to follow so far this season, turned over at 9/4, 6/5 and 5/6 on his three starts. He was undeniably disappointing at Sandown last time but has had a breathing operation since then and is highly likely to find the drying ground at Kelso in his favour, too – he’s a speedy type who showed much improved form over hurdles faced with good ground for the first time on his final start last season. The top-weight Real Stone has to be respected on the form of his runaway win at Wetherby a month ago but he’s back up the weights as a result and has never gained back-to-back successes, Helnwein making greater appeal at the prices.

1.45 1 pt – 2 Iroko 2/1 bet365, Betvictor, Ladbrokes, Coral

Even conceding 3 lb Grey Dawning has the edge over Iroko on Timeform ratings and it’s fair to assume he’ll be back on his game having been given a couple of months off since bombing out in the King George over Christmas, the yard subsequently coming to the conclusion that they wouldn’t be targeting the Gold Cup with him. He’ll surely be a tough nut to crack, but at the odds we’d rather be with Iroko. He was a long way behind Grey Dawning in the Golden Miller last season but that was just his second outing over fences after a troubled preparation and, though he’s still to add to his chasing debut success, he has shaped really promisingly on a few occasions, including when an eye-catching fourth under a big weight at Cheltenham at the end of January. The National weights are out now so his mark will be unaffected however he fares here and, still very much unexposed at staying trips, Iroko remains a cracking prospect.

2.20 No Bet Advised

It might seem odd suggesting ‘No Bet’ in a handicap of this nature but we’re simply not comfortably forwarding anything at the prices and there’s a definite possibility that the race will have a tactical element to it, too, none of the ten-strong field noted for going forward at an early stage. It’s understandable that the Skelton novice Ace of Spades has been put in short as he’s the one runner in the field still with any great potential, but his opening mark is no gimme by any means, whilst the likeable Mr Bramley looks about the right price after his win in a Wetherby handicap that wasn’t so competitive as the number of runners might have suggested last time out. This had us unsuccessfully looking at longer-priced ones and, all things considered, it’s a race we’re happy to leave alone.

2.55 1 pt ew – 10 Listentoyourheart 15/2 general, 17/2 Betfair, 9/1 Paddy Power

This has proved to be a strongly-contested Grade 2 novice in recent seasons and it’s another really interesting renewal this time round, too. Castle Carrock falls into the ‘could be anything’ category after winning an Ayr bumper and Sandown novice hurdle in impressive fashion, Willie Mullins’ Chart Topper has looked good in winning both his hurdles starts so far, whilst Vanderpoel is also unbeaten and surely capable of a fair bit more improvement now upped in class. Choosing between that trio from a win-only perspective is hard, but it’s slightly easier to side with the mare Listentoyourheart at the bottom of the weights with the places on side as well. She lost her unbeaten record over hurdles when sent off favourite but only fourth in a listed mares event at Taunton over Christmas, highly possible that the sharp track on ground that wasn’t especially testing placed the emphasis a bit too much on speed for her. The form has worked out well regardless and there’s a good chance this slightly longer trip will be in her favour given how she’s been shaping. A two-month break since Taunton should have freshened her up and, whilst she doesn’t quite have the potential of some of these, if she gives her running the likelihood is that she’ll reward each-way support.

3.30 1 pt – 1 Favour And Fortune 6/1 general

Another smashing field for the modern-day version of the Morebattle and everything looks in place for the top-weight Favour And Fortune to run a big race. Winner of the Scottish Champion Hurdle on his final start as a novice last season, he didn’t return to action until mid-December this time round, showing the benefit of his reappearance when a promising fourth in the old Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last time out. Not for the first time, he shaped that day as though likely to prove best away from the mud, travelling typically comfortably for a long way and losing third only late on. Favour And Fortune should really be spot on fitness-wise now, the drying conditions at Kelso should be in his favour and the likely strong gallop will suit his usual run-style, too.

Newbury

1.20 No Bet Advised

This is an old bunch even by veterans standards and it’s tough to form a strong view as to which one will be on a going day. Sam Brown has a 10-lb claimer up, heads the Timeform ratings and has recent form that’s perhaps stronger than that of his younger stable-companions Credo and Gustavian, but it’s tough to argue that he’s wildly overpriced and, overall, this race isn’t too difficult to swerve on an afternoon hardly short of betting opportunities.

3.45 1 pt – 8 Vicenzo 15/2 bet365, Betvictor, Ladbrokes, Betfred, Boylesports

Sam Thomas landed a big handicap chase last weekend with Katate Dori at Kempton and his bang-in-form stable has an excellent chance of repeating the dose with the progressive Vicenzo. He’s won two of his three starts over fences and really impressed with how much he found up the hill when successful over two miles at Sandown last time. That form looks solid – the runner-up arrived seeking a hat-trick and has won again since – and the way Vicenzo won suggests he should be even better suited by a galloping test at this trip. There aren’t too many other potential improvers in this considering the size of the field and Vicenzo’s upwardly-mobile profile and likely suitability to this test mean he has plenty in his favour.

Doncaster

2.05 0.5 pt – 7 Miss Cynthia 6/1 Paddy Power, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Coral

This isn’t especially appealing as a betting medium but Miss Cynthia does strike as a potential improver faced with a galloping test over three miles. She’ll need to do much more than when defying a mark of 109 in handicap at company at Market Rasen last time, but her Flat form – she had a poor strike rate but was good enough to finish fourth in the Group 1 Prix du Cadran for Sir Mark Prescott – suggests untapped stamina and potential over hurdles. Indeed, if she can bring her jumps form more in line with her best Flat efforts, then she ought to be thereabouts in a race that’s by no means a strong one by listed standards.

2.40 1 pt – 6 Rare Edition 4/1 Betvictor, Ladbrokes, Coral

Petit Tonnerre is an opposable favourite in this as his strike rate is ordinary and he rather had things set up for him when scoring over course and distance last time. There are a few viable alternatives, including the last two winners of this race Homme Public and Calico, but the novice Rare Edition offers more upside. He took well to chasing in the autumn, winning at Uttoxeter on his return then finishing a good in a handicap at Ascot, and he’s had nearly three months off to get over a lesser effort in a graded race at the latter track just before Christmas. He’s also had a breathing operation and sports first-time cheekpieces, either of which could prompt improvement, and it’s also of note that he has a win and an excellent close third to his name from two outings at Doncaster.

3.15 1 pt – 6 Weveallbeencaught 5 general, 11/2 bet365, William Hill & 0.5 pt – 8 Monte Igueldo 40/1 Betvictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports

It took Weveallbeencaught ten goes to win a chase, but he was impressive when scoring in a three-mile handicap at this track last time and there’s a feeling that he could well take off now that he’s got his head in front over fences. It’s no surprise that a positive ride got the best out of him that day, as he’s always been a strong-galloping type, and he really should be suited by the extra distance of this race. An 8 lb rise for that wide-margin win looks lenient – he tops the Timeform ratings – and the Twiston-Davies yard is going well at the minute. There’s no harm in having a second stab at a big-field handicap, and Monte Igueldo has been totally underestimated as the complete rag of the field. He didn’t shape at all badly back from three months off when seventh to Victtorino at Ascot a fortnight ago and should be sharper for that. He's sports first-time cheekpieces, has conditions to suit, and is now 3 lb lower than when second to a next-time winner at Uttoxeter in the summer.

You can access the TV Focus selections and rationale at 5pm the evening before racing for £7.50 on the Timeform website.

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