Timeform TV Focus: ITV racing tips on Saturday

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Ayr

1.10 1 pt – 2 Homme Public

This has an end-of-season feel as it is but it gets even less appealing when considering the each-way market is likely to be impacted by the likely absence of Asta La Pasta (declared to run in softer race on the opening day of Ayr’s fixture). That would mean place terms are reduced to just two places and none of the remaining septet look bombproof on various scores. The likes of Etalon, novice Western Diego and last year’s winner Tommy’s Oscar all have a case to be made, but the risks with them aren’t too hard to find and, instead, minimum stakes are advised on a runner with no say in the ongoing Mullins vs Skelton title battle. Homme Public doesn’t hold any secrets from the handicapper, but his penultimate second to Brookie was made to look better when that one split Kalif du Berlais and L’Eau du Sud in the Maghull at Aintree and he’s since carried over his good form back to hurdling by filling the same position at Bangor. This sort of track is ideal for Homme Public and the fact he’s at longer odds than a few more likely to disappoint sways it.

1.43 1 pt – 2 Loughlynn

We’re now firmly at the stage of the Jumps season where horses that have been on the go all winter can be starting to feel the effects. Plus underfoot conditions are generally much livelier than they have been since the autumn, the forecast ‘Good to Soft’ at Ayr rather hard to believe given the weather over the last month or so. As such, it’s likely that speed more than stamina will be the order of the day in this, despite the race being over 3m, and with that in mind Loughlynn can edge Willie Mullins closer still to the British Trainer’s Championship. He’s had just three runs this season so is still fresh for the time of year and, though raced solely on soft/heavy ground so far, appeals as likely to be at least as effective under less testing conditions, a solid jumper who tends to travel well and race prominently.

2.15 1 pt – 6 Dysart Enos

It’s possible Ethical Diamond, even with all the talk of Mullins and his title charge lately, isn’t quite short enough judged on how well he shaped in finishing a never-nearer fourth in the County. But numbers were down in that race this year and this trip around here on drying ground is going to make life all the trickier should the same tactics be adopted. His nearest rival in the betting is the refreshed Kabral du Mathan, seeking to give yet another spring boost to a resurgent Paul Nicholls, but the one whose handicap form looks at least as good at a much bigger price is that of Dysart Enos, courtesy of her placed effort behind Burdett Road and Be Aware in the Greatwood first time back. She’s made the track only twice since, one at Ascot a disaster and her never-sighted eighth in the David Nicholson at Cheltenham not vastly better, but she found herself in a poor position in the latter – presumably dropped out ‘to get the trip’ – and her jumping suffered as well in the face of what was already a stiff task on the formbook in a race that saw Lossiemouth lead home Jade de Grugy and Take No Chances. A less-exaggerated patient ride at a sharp two miles ought to suit her down to the ground and, given how infrequently she’s been sighted this campaign, she has the added bonus of late-season freshness that a few of the others lack.

2.55 1 pt – 6 Armed And Fabulous

It’s true that plenty of these are in good heart, but it’s less certain how many of the field are actually ahead of their marks. Rockola Vogue probably is, better than the result when coming from well off the pace to justify favouritism at Musselburgh last month and, very unusually, she’s been left on the same mark after beating a whole host of rivals who were either out of the handicap and/or carrying overweight. This is a much more competitive affair, however, and we’d rather take a chance that the handicap debutante Armed And Fabluous has been underestimated on her handicap debut. She looked distinctly ordinary on her first 6 starts (3 bumpers and 3 maiden hurdles) but returned from fifteen months off a different model in mid-February, justifying favouritism in a Newcastle maiden with a fair bit more in hand than the result suggests after losing momentum at the second last. That form as it stands is admittedly nothing special but Armed And Fabulous is very much bred for stamina – her unraced dam is a full sister to a Midlands national winner – and it’s hard to believe we’ve seen the best of her yet, this first crack at 3m highly likely to unlock further progress.

3.35 1 pt ew – 20 Snipe

The Mullins/Skelton title race has added considerable spice to the last few weeks of the Jumps season and, whilst the former is mob-handed in the Scottish National, it’s one of the latter’s two runners that seems a silly price. Snipe hasn’t managed to get his head in front so far this season but has shaped as though capable of defying this sort of mark on several occasions, notably when runner-up to the Welsh National winner Val Dancer at Carlisle and when a close third behind Docpickedme and The Changing Man in the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster. He’s long since given the impression that marathon trips will bring out the very best in him, including when a staying-on third behind a progressive one at Warwick on his most recent start. The cheekpieces he wore that day are retained and, with the stable’s conditional Harry Atkins taking off 7 lb for the first time, Snipe surely has a better chance of being involved in the finish than his odds on Friday afternoon might suggest.

Newbury

1.25 1 pt – 2 Bellum Justum

Ancient Wisdom and Sunway are the two with the best form in the John Porter, though there’s an argument that both might be better suited by softer going. Bellum Justum on the other hand won’t be inconvenienced by firmish conditions and he embarks on his four-year-old season with sound prospects of making up into a smart performer. He bookended 2024 with wins, scoring in the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom on his return (boding well for his likely readiness this time around) and signing off with victory in a very valuable graded stakes in the USA. In between, he went down by just a neck to the St Leger winner Jan Brueghel in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood and physically, he’s the type to come back even better this season, having stood out in the paddock in exalted company prior to his mid-field finish in last season’s Derby.

2.00 1 pt – 16 Time For Sandals

Sixteen runners makes for a cracking Fred Darling and there’s a fascinating blend of potential and proven form on show. Time For Sandals fits into the latter category, having finished an excellent second in the Lowther on her third and final two-year-old outing, but she also belongs firmly among the potential improvers, and that makes her a most interesting proposition. Her form progressed in big chunks last season, from a smooth debut win at Kempton, to a third over a trip too short in the Super Sprint before than fine York effort, and there’s no reason why that trend can’t continue this year, not least as she’s a good-topped filly who should train on well. What’s more, the way she shaped at York – she finished best after taking a little while to get going behind an all-the-way winner - suggests she’ll be well suited by stepping up to seven furlongs, with the likelihood of a strong gallop in such a big field set to suit her come-from-behind style.

2.35 1 pt – 7 Rashabar

There’s loads of potential on offer in the Greenham, but Rashabar is a fair way ahead of his rivals judged on form in the book and he’s a fair price even at the top of the betting. His win in the Coventry last season can be upgraded considering he did it on the ‘wrong’ side of the track, and he looked a bit unlucky not to win a Group 1 after, having to circle his rivals when edged out by Whistlejacket in the Prix Morny at Deauville then mugged late on by Camille Pissarro in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, when in the firing line earlier than the winner in a strongly-run race. Admittedly, those aren’t outstandingly strong pieces of form by Group 1 standards, but they’re still good enough to go close in a typical Greenham, and there’s no obvious reason to think he won’t make at least as good a three-year-old, for connections who won this race with Isaac Shelby back in 2023.

3.12 1 pt – 10 Metal Merchant

This is a slightly smaller field than is usual for the Spring Cup and it’s probably not quite so competitive as the edition in which Metal Merchant beat 20 rivals last season. Admittedly, he’s 6 lb higher this time around, but he showed even better form in defeat subsequently in 2024 and has high-end handicap efforts to his name that few of his rivals can match. The most eyecatching effort of all is his close fourth from this mark in last season’s International Stakes at Ascot (four of the first five from that race scored next time out), and Metal Merchant had an excuse when beaten at Goodwood on his only outing after. A very strong traveller, it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if he can eke a bit more out as a five-year-old, and he returns to action at a time when his trainer Jack Channon’s string is still in fine form.

You can access the TV Focus selections and rationale at 5pm the evening before racing for £7.50 on the Timeform website.

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