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Timeform TV Focus: ITV racing tips on Saturday


The Timeform Jury team pick out the best bets for the ITV racing on Saturday.

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Cheltenham

1.45 No Bet Advised

This race has attracted about twice as many runners as usual but a few of them have plenty on and L’Eau du Sud really does looks very solid at the top of the betting. Not only was he the best of them over hurdles – including seconds last season in the Betfair and County Hurdles – but he’s also got the best piece of chasing form on offer courtesy of a wide-margin success in a handicap at Stratford on his first outing over fences at the end of last month. He impressed both visually and on the clock in defying a mark of 138 that day, reaching a level good enough to win many graded novices, and, what’s more, is open to a fair bit of improvement. If anything, he’s not far off a bet at around the even-money mark, but on a day with no shortage of alternative punting opportunities, it’s not too difficult to pass this one over.

2.20 1pt win – 3 Ginny’s Destiny

It’s tough to leave Ginny’s Destiny out of calculations in the Paddy Power, even though he’s predictably found his way to the top of the betting. A superb jumper, his record at Cheltenham last season stands up to the closest scrutiny, and a mark of 155 looks decidedly lenient judged on his excellent second in the Golden Miller at the Festival, with further progress more than likely on the cards embarking on his second season over fences. At bigger odds, there’s also a case for including In Excelsis Deo, who could be the type to benefit from what looks sure to be a strongly-run race. Admittedly, his jumping doesn’t always pass muster, but he’s finished no worse than fifth in four outings at Cheltenham, is still unexposed around two and a half miles, and will race from a mark just 5 lb higher than when an authoritative winner of the Silver Trophy at this track last April. It’s probably best to put a line through his poor run in the Galway Plate when last seen, and his record fresh offers hope he’ll be ready to do himself justice.

2.55 No Bet Advised

There are some favourites to take on and others that it’s very hard to. Doyen Quest falls into the latter category. He’s proved most progressive since sent handicapping four starts ago, yet to finish out of the first two, and his reappearance effort when runner-up to Josh The Boss in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow is form that very hard to knock, Take No Chances, Tightenyourbelts, Act of Authority and Irish Hill all successful on their next outing and the fourth Lowry’s Bar making a really encouraging chasing debut at Bangor earlier this week. Doyen Quest himself has been put up a mere 3 lb for that effort and there’s every chance he can continue his upward trajectory, anyway, unexposed at 3m and certainly bred to benefit from it despite the fact he always shows plenty of speed, the emphasis hardly likely to be on stamina in this, anyway. The issue is his price, a general 13/8 at the time of putting this preview together and very hard to recommend him as a bet at such odds, though that’s not to say his price isn’t worth monitoring on Saturday morning as it’s hard to believe bookmakers will be seeing much interest in him at that kind of price and, if he gets out to 5/2, we wouldn’t deter anyone from stepping in.

3.30 1pt win – 9 Hamsiyann

There are plenty of really interesting handicap hurdlers in this and there’s no doubt that whoever comes out on top will need to be a fair way ahead of his/her mark. The most obvious one is Hamsiyann. It is slightly concerning that he wasn’t seen out again on the Flat this year after finishing runner-up to his stable-companion Alphonse le Grande in the Chester Plate back in May, but that niggle aside he really does have a lot going for him. He’s surely very well treated from a BHA mark of just 111 over hurdles and, though he was unable to take advantage of a similar mark on his handicap debut in this sphere, that was over a steadily-run 2m at Ascot and, judged on the stamina he displayed at Chester, this test is likely to be much more up his street, especially as a solid gallop seems likely with the front-running Wyenot in the field.

Newcastle

3.15 1pt win – 4 Peace Man

Dubai Honour is the class horse in a race run at Newcastle for the first time, but it’s doubtful he’s quite as good as he once was, even though he’s a Group 1 winner this year, and a 7-lb penalty for that leaves him with more on his plate than is reflected in the market on Friday afternoon. It’s encouraging that Peace Man has run two really good races since returning from sixteen months off, and while it’s a slight niggle that this comes just a fortnight on from the second of them, it’s possible to pick holes in pretty much every other horse in the race, Peace Man looking the one to be on at the prices. He gave Bolster (whose handicap success at York three weeks earlier has a very solid look to it) all he could handle at this level at Newmarket last time, looking all over the winner for most of the final furlong only to somehow emerge on the wrong end of the photo finish, and a repeat of that form should see him go very close again.

3.48 1pt win – 9 Wiltshire

The possibility of some fairly brisk westerly gusts at Newcastle tomorrow afternoon, combined with a pretty big field for this listed sprint could mean those that get cover are favoured, and hopefully that will be the case with Wiltshire from a middle draw in stall 8. Still in his first season with Haggas, he’s won two handicaps this year and finished a close second in another from just a handful of starts, and his run in a Group 3 at Ascot last time had all the hallmarks of a race that came too soon (just a weak after being touched off at Haydock on the back of three months off). He goes well fresh and has been given six weeks off since then, while he’s back on all-weather having won all three previous starts on a synthetic surface, including when producing a very warm sectional rating over this C&D on Northumberland Plate day.


You can access the TV Focus selections and rationale at 5pm the evening before racing for £7.50 on the Timeform website


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