Timeform TV Focus: ITV racing tips on Friday

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Newbury

1.55 1 pt – 6 The Jukebox Man

Six runners is a couple more than this usually attracts and it’s a corking novice chase full of potential. The Jukebox Man – actually a chasing debutant – and Captain Teague – de facto one having walked over at Exeter recently – are the pick of them according to the betting and it’s worth betting that the former has it in him to make a successful start over fences. The Jukebox Man finished third behind Captain Teague (and just ahead of Johnnywho) when third in the Challow at this track last autumn, but he showed better form after, notably when second in the Albert Bartlett at the Festival, and that rates as the pick of the hurdling efforts on offer in this field. The Jukebox Man is very much a chaser on looks and has a forward-going style of racing that promises to be an advantage in this smallish field, and while he lacks a recent run compared to most, lack of fitness is rarely an issue for runners from Ben Pauling’s stable.

2.30 0.5 pt – 2 Le Patron

This handicap has a somewhat trappy looks to it and it could be worth taking a chance on Le Patron, who did after all prove good enough to win a Grade 1 novice last season and embarks on his second campaign over fences with a bit of potential intact. There’s nothing at all wrong with the form of his win in the Henry VIII at Sandown last December, when he had several subsequent big-race winners in behind, and, with this race in mind, it’s perhaps best not to judge him too harshly on two subsequent heavy defeats in top-level novices. This is certainly a much easier task, with a 5-lb claimer up, and it’s worth remembering that Le Patron returned to action in top form around this time last season.

3.05 No Bet Advised

While there certainly seems to have been a change of approach from Dan Skelton this season compared to last in terms of how forward he’s had his horses this autumn, it still takes a leap of faith to think that Langer Dan will be close to his best first time out given he’s been trained to peak in the spring for each of the last four seasons, and he’ll likely have to be right up to form to challenge Strong Leader, who looked such a promising stayer when winning the Liverpool Hurdle. The latter does have to give away 2 lb though and his jumping can hold him back, while the likelihood of a fairly muddling race is another reason to think that this is a contest best left alone from a betting perspective.

3.40 1 pt – 11 Madaket

Woodie Flash is undoubtedly the right favourite in this staying handicap hurdle, picking up his progression where he left off last season when scoring comfortably on his reappearance earlier in the month from a runner-up who went on to score earlier this week. This is a much better race, however, and he’s edging towards a general 9/4, and it’s not as if there aren’t other interesting ones in here. Largy Poet is definitely in that category, but perhaps this will be a prelude to going chasing, and while that doesn’t mean he can’t win, there might just be one or two more tuned up for the day. Madaket is also reappearing, and may well go chasing himself before too long, but given he won first time out last season, and comes from a yard having a great time of things (already two more winners on the board this month than in any of the other 20 since Johnson White joined the licence), he could be more forward. Only sixth over C&D on his final start last year, he moved into that race encouragingly, however, and didn't have the clearest of runs at a key stage, while it came just 15 days on from a wide-margin win on heavy ground. What’s more, that Newbury form has been soundly franked by the first two both winning their next two starts. He’s got ground to make up on Hermino AA from that run, but that one is also reappearing and, on balance, the case for Madaket is a bit more compelling given the stable form.

You can access the TV Focus selections and rationale at 5pm the evening before racing for £7.50 on the Timeform website.

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