Timeform TV Focus: ITV racing tips on Boxing Day

The Timeform TV Focus team provide their best bets on all the ITV action!

The crack team of analysts, reporters, and handicappers behind their world-renowned data and ratings help you find more value every week with leading insight and winning picks.

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Kempton

12.45 1 pt – 7 Fire Flyer

As ever, this is an interesting handicap sure to take a lot of winning, but Timeform ratings do rather point the way towards Fire Flyer for Paul Nicholls. He won twice over hurdles last season but has always looked very much the type to make a better chaser and took to it well when second to the prolific Billytherealbigred in a novice handicap at Exeter at the start of this month. The BHA handicapper has taken a chance leaving Fire Flyer’s mark unchanged following that effort – he pulled 13 lengths clear of the rest and the race was run in a good time - and a similar performance should be enough to go close here, but Fire Flyer is surely open to improvement as well, especially now stepping back up in trip to two and a half miles.

1.20 No bet advised

This isn’t a particularly difficult race to price up and The Jukebox Man, who was the pick of them over hurdles and already has the best chase form courtesy of his win in the John Francome at Newbury at the end of November, looks a worthy favourite. He’ll probably be able to dominate as well, acknowledging Hyland has been making the running this season, and all that adds up to a race to sit out on an afternoon hardly lacking for betting opportunities.

1.55 No bet advised

The Christmas Hurdle presents a real conundrum. It’s perhaps justifiable that Lossiemouth is favourite as she’s very much the solid option of the two at the top of the betting, but if Constitution Hill returns from his year on the sidelines close to his phenomenal best – which is perhaps the best a hurdler has ever been - then he’ll have the beating of her. It’s a tough one to call, but the prices on offer mean the financial rewards for siding one way or the other aren’t really worthwhile, making this more one to watch and enjoy.

2.30 1 pt – 10 Spillane’s Tower

If all 11 stand their ground this will be the biggest field for the King George since Kauto Star’s fourth win back in 2009. That makes for a fascinating race, and a tight one too, but it’s arguable that the horse with the best form is also the one with the most potential, and that means Spillane’s Tower is the one to be on even as favourite. The John Durkan at Punchestown in November was an outstanding race of its type and Spillane’s Tower’s close second to another of last season’s top novices Fact To File, ahead of Galopin des Champs and Fastorslow, was a top-class effort, backed up by an excellent time. That performance at two and a half miles shows that Spillane’s Tower isn’t short of speed, but the fact he signed off last spring when making his first start at three miles a winning one in the Champion Novices’ Chase at Punchestown bodes extremely well for him finding further progress returned to this trip, and if he can do that on his first outing outside Ireland, then it’ll likely take something pretty outstanding to beat him.

Aintree

1.05 1 pt – 2 Country Mile

Unlike last year, there no Irish/French-trained entries for the Formby, but it’s a good-looking renewal all the same, all seven entries still worthy of a Timeform ‘p’ or, in Country Mile’s case, a 'P'. Country Mile’s sole defeat so far came at the hands of the reopposing Roadlesstravelled on Betfair Chase Day, but since then Dan Skelton’s charge seemed to benefit from the greater emphasis on speed when an impressive winner at Cheltenham. Underfoot conditions again shouldn’t be too testing here and there should be a good pace for him to aim at, too, a bit surprising he’s as big as 13/2 on Monday afternoon. Conversely, Potters Charm is undoubtedly a smashing prospect but he does seem a short price for a horse that’s dropping down in distance having raced at around 2½m so far. In truth, it’s not an easy race to have a strong opinion on with so much still about potential rather than form, but at the prices Country Mile is worth chancing in the hope that the race develops just right for his patient tactics.

Wetherby

1.35 1 pt – 5 Sine Nomine

As is the case with so many of the top staying handicap chases these days, the Rowland Meyrick isn’t really the race it once was, hard to make a case for any of the eight entries this year necessarily being ahead of their marks. The likeable Cruz Control could be, improving last back-end and coming here fresh after a pipe-opener over hurdles a couple of months ago, but there’s hardly much in his price on Monday afternoon and, as such, we’d rather be with last season’s Hunter Chase winner Sine Nomine. She was value for a bit extra over the result that day, stopped in her run and needing to be switched before getting up late and, though she looked a bit rusty prior to unseating at the thirteenth at Market Rasen on her return to action last month, Sine Nomine is really the only one of these that strikes as potentially capable of a fair bit better again. A smooth-travelling hold-up mare, she should be suited by the way this is likely to develop – Cruz Control, Young Buster and Good Boy Bobby all like to get on with things – and the booking of a 5-lb claimer instead of her usual amateur is undoubtedly a positive, too.

You can access the TV Focus selections and rationale at 5pm the evening before racing for £7.50 on the Timeform website.

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