Timeform TV Focus: ITV racing tips for day five of Royal Ascot

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Royal Ascot

2.30 0.5 pt – 18 Miss El Fundi 25/1

Eighteen runners makes for the biggest Chesham field in a decade and it really is exceptionally open with nothing yet close to the level required to win a typical renewal but most open to varying amounts of improvement. In such circumstances, a big-priced potshot looks a justifiable approach, and Miss El Fundi has something going for her bidding to give Sir Mark Prescott a second winner of the week. She ran to just a fair level when fourth on her debut at Kempton at the start of the month, but she was learning as she went and had shaped with lots of promise by the finish. She really ought to improve with that experience under her belt, while stepping up in trip will surely suit judged on her pedigree, by Sea The Stars out of a mare who was a useful seven-furlong winner. What’s more, this quick rise in grade is a remarkably un-Prescott-like approach, which could be taken as a vote of confidence.

3.05 1 pt – 2 Continuous 13/8

It’s generally been a good week for Aidan O’Brien ahead of Friday’s card, big guns Auguste Rodin and Kyprios getting the job done as well as Port Fairy and Illinois, whilst Henry Longfellow ran a cracker to be edged out in the St James’s Palace, and things can get better again with Continuous. The fact that he’s not been out for the best part of seven months is the only reason he’s not odds on, as there’s little doubt he’s got the best form, much improved in the second half of his three-year-old campaign and cementing his emphatic win in the St Leger with a splendid fifth in the Arc just over a fortnight later. It’s not surprising that he’s had a late start to this season with the major autumn prizes doubtless again on the agenda, but at the same time it’s unlikely he’ll be that short of peak fitness that he won’t be able to account for this opposition, highly likely he’ll be ridden to make good use of his stamina given the possible lack of early pace.

3.45 1 pt – 9 Shouldvebeenaring 12/1

There’s something of a ‘whose turn is it today’ feel to this Group 1, symptomatic of a below-par sprinting scene in general at the moment and it’s straightforward to see the case for a different formline from the likes of Shartash given how he’s started out for new connections, but this demands more and he’s not been missed in the market so the temptation is to side with one that has gone close in this sort of company before yet is rather being ignored in the market. Shouldvebeenaring took a couple of starts to find his feet this year (thrived on racing in 2023) but returned to his best when edged out in a photo finish on these terms by Mill Stream in the Duke of York Stakes. That horse is disputing favouritism now, yet Shouldvebeenaring is available at a much bigger price having been beaten since at the Curragh, but in a race where he had excuses, having been caught wide without cover. A reproduction of his York form, or what he showed when placed at the highest level at Haydock or Longchamp last year gives him as a good a chance as any in a very open race.

4.25 1 pt – 1 Haatem 3/1

The Jersey is priced up as if River Tiber will reverse Irish Guineas form with Haatem with that run under his belt and a pull in the weights, but a review of that race suggests that, if anything, the latter could be the better suited of the pair to dropping back to seven furlongs, and he looks overpriced even towards the top of the betting in a field in which plenty are making up the numbers. Haatem has simply been a completely different horse this year to last and there’s real substance to the form of his Craven win, Guineas third, and close second in the Irish equivalent. A break of a month since his last run should have given him the time to recover from an intensive start to the year and, even conceding 4 lb all around, his Group 1 class could well tell back down at this level.

5.05 0.5 pt ew – 24 Strike Red 25/1

Albasheer is arguably the best handicapped in this field, returning to turf handicaps from a potentially lenient mark having won off the same rating and higher at Newcastle over the winter and it’s far from certain his progress was merely down to the surface. That said, he’s a tricky horse that will need a bit of luck and with him having been backed into single figures, he’s reluctantly passed over. Strike Red missed the cut for last year’s Wokingham, but has long since looked an ideal type for it as he tends to be at his best when surging late off an end to end gallop, as he showed when winning at the Curragh on his final start last year, with his season cut short in July. He was entitled to need his reappearance at Newcastle, and it was encouraging that he got as close as he did at Epsom last time, running on but finding that track placing an insufficient emphasis on stamina. Strike Red has been to Ascot once before and went down by just a head in a well-contested three-year-old handicap and if he turns up in peak form, he can run a big race.

5.40 0.5 pt ew – 11 Dambuster 16/1

The final fiendishly difficult handicap of Royal Ascot 2024. Hand of God is a short-priced favourite on Friday afternoon and, in our opinion, too short at a general 11/4, the same connections’ King’s Gambit proving on Thursday that sometimes it’s not enough to be best at the weights in any given race, especially strongly-contested handicaps where luck in-running can play a huge part. Andrew Balding hasn’t had much of that so far this week, still to saddle a winner by start of play on Friday but plenty having acquitted themselves with great credit, including Hopeful and Alsakib, both of whom recorded career bests in making the frame in handicaps. Hopefully, Dambuster will do the same. He doesn’t have as sexy a profile as plenty in this race, but what he does have is a smart pedigree and the potential to progress further, probably no coincidence that he’s been kept fresh for this since defying a penalty in a Beverley minor event on his reappearance in April. The way he’s been ridden so far suggests Dambuster is likely to be kept away from what will potentially be a furious early pace and there’s enough in his price to justify an each-way play with enhanced terms on offer pretty much across the board.

6.15 1 pt – 5 Postileo 17/2

The very smart stayer Tashkhan heads the Timeform ratings for this and, at the prices on Friday afternoon, it might appear a no-brainer to side with him in this. But it’s not as simple as that, as he’s not been out since finishing third in the Cesarewitch (from a BHA mark of 109) and Prix Royal-Oak last back-end and, whilst he does have form on firmish ground, there’s no escaping that his career record does suggest he’s ideally suited by more testing conditions. As such, the one that makes most appeal at the prices is Postileo. A smart and versatile performer for Roger Varian for several years, he’s had three runs for Emmet Mullins since finishing a good third in the Cumberland Lodge on his final outing last season and, whilst a couple of hurdling efforts were disappointing to say the least, there was enough in his fourth behind Kyprios at Navan last time out to believe his ability is still intact. His trainer has made a justifiable name for himself by ‘doing things differently’ and it could just be the case that this has been the plan all along, cheekpieces back on for the first time this year and James Doyle booked.

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