Timeform TV Focus: ITV racing tips for Aintree, Doncaster and Wincanton on Saturday

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Wincanton

1.09 1 pt – 3 Tedley

It’s hard to get away from the hat-trick seeking Tedley in this. His hurdling record wasn’t especially convincing, having just a 5-runner maiden at Wincanton on his win-record from eleven attempts, but he’s very quickly proved himself a different proposition over fences, jumping well when winning handicaps at Uttoxeter and Wetherby. He did well to pull well clear of the rest with the runner-up Choosethenews in a steadily-run race at Wetherby last weekend and a further 6 lb rise for that is potentially on the lenient side by our reckoning. A better pace should be in the offing in this with both Dreaming Blue and Duke of Luckley known for front running, Tedley surely the one they’ve got to beat.

1.45 1 pt ew – 6 Good Look Charm

Lots of these are about where they should be in the weights and that goes for Good Look Charm, too, but there are still reasons for believing she’s overpriced in her attempt to follow-up her win in this twelve months ago. Like many from the Honeyball yard she’s got a fine record when fresh – she was better than ever when defying a 7-month absence last year – and her subsequent form last season reads well in the context of this return to mares only company, fourth in the Lanzarote as well another valuable open handicap at Sandown. It’s easy to forgive her form tailing off at the back-end and, whilst the handicapper has been slower to relent than ideal, it seems likely she’ll be somewhere near concert pitch for this return and, unlike a fair few of these, she won’t be inconvenienced by the probable emphasis on speed at the trip.

2.23 No Bet Advised

Handstands is a smashing chasing prospect, a measure of the regard in which he’s held that Ben Pauling sees fit to introduce him in a Grade 2, and it could be that he’ll prove a class apart on his chasing debut, the yard noted for getting horses ready after absences and one of the more adept stables at readying novices for fences, too. This is likely to prove a proper test of jumping ability at the first attempt, however, up against a quartet that have already shown useful chasing form and a few likely to ensure a sufficiently good pace that ensures there’s no hiding place jumping-wise. In short, we’re not keen on backing Handstands at such a short price first-time-out over fences but, at the same time, we’re in no rush no take him on, either.

2.55 No Bet Advised

Making the Elite Hurdle a non-handicap has unquestionably had a detrimental effect on field sizes, the defection of Forever William in the latest renewal meaning a mere three runners are likely to line-up. Understandably, it’s unappealing from a betting aspect as a result and, whilst we could make a chase for Brentford Hope potentially being at slightly longer odds than expected, getting past a race-fit Rubaud and/or Aspire Tower even in receipt of 6 lb is unlikely to prove straightforward.

3.30 2 pts – 6 The Changing Man

Stable form is a hotly disputed subject in racing and, whilst this isn’t the place for a deep dive into the matter, there’s absolutely no denying that the Tizzard stable is going much better of late than it has for quite some time. They’ve already posted winners at 22/1, 7/1, 8/1, 9/1 & 11/4 in November despite the month being little more than a week old, and whilst those successes have undoubtedly had the effect of restricting what price we can get on The Changing Man his claims are nigh-on impossible to ignore. Yes, it could be argued that his strike rate so far isn’t what it could be for a horse of his ability, but he’s not always had things go his way to date and, with the stable going so well, he makes his return from what is surely a very attractive chasing mark, worth remembering that he split Stay Away Fay and Grey Dawning on his chasing debut/reappearance last season. A breathing operation since last seen could even be the final piece of the jigsaw so far as The Changing Man is concerned, given that he has traded very short in-running on several occasions without quite managing to get the job done.

Aintree

1.30 1 pt – 6 Harbour Lake

Guard The Moon is a progressive type who ought to improve again now tackling three miles, but he’s predictably found his way to the top of the betting, and, at bigger odds, Harbour Lake is a compelling alternative. Harbour Lake has plenty of solid handicap form to his name, including a couple of good in-frame efforts on his two visits to Aintree, and while he’s done most of his racing around two and a half miles, he’s always shaped as if crying out for this sort of trip. Admittedly, he didn’t immediately find any progress when finally upped to three miles last spring, but a repeat of either of his two placed efforts in arguably better handicaps than this at Cheltenham and Haydock would give him very strong claims here, with his record fresh – he’s won first time out in two of his three seasons – raising hope that he’ll be fit and ready to go.

2.05 1 pt – 1 Imperial Saint

A quick turnaround is a bit of a concern with Imperial Saint, but he took well to chasing when beating a field of novices over course and distance just under a fortnight ago and he stands out on profile this time taking on a much more exposed set of chasers. It’s true that Imperial Saint benefited from a bit of luck that day, with his main rival running out at the last, but even with that in mind a 4 lb rise looks far from excessive, and improvement is surely on the cards anyway. Repeating the same front-running tactics might be more of a challenge in this field, with no shortage of pace-forcers in opposition, but his record from a light novice hurdle campaign last season that yielded two wins shows that he doesn’t need to make the running to show his best.

2.40 1 pt – 7 Idalko Bihoue

There are plenty of interesting angles into the Grand Sefton, including the compelling handicapping claims of Frero Banbou (4 lb clear on Timeform ratings) and King Turgeon (well-in under a penalty) and the fine course records of Percussion and Latenightpass, but, at a bigger price than any of those four, it could be worth taking a chance on Idalko Bihoue for the Twiston-Davies team. He’s certainly lightly raced enough still to have improvement in him, and while he’s been inconsistent in his brief career to date, a wide-margin novice handicap chase win at Cheltenham a year ago shows what he can do on a going day. His current mark of 132 looks perfectly fair judged on that performance, and his forward-going style has typically proved an advantage in the shorter-distance races run on the National course. Furthermore, there’s a suspicion that this might be the time to catch Idalko Bihoue, whose two career wins have both come in October, one of them also first time back.

Doncaster

1.20 1 pt – 5 Ten Bob Tony

The standard-setters in this bring high-end handicap form to the table, both Room Service and Zoum Zoum having recent efforts in such company that suggests they’re at least up to this level. There are bigger-priced alternatives, however, and Ten Bob Tony, who conversely drops in class having contested pattern races on five of his last six outings, strikes as a potential improver. He only managed fourth behind Topgear in the Challenge Stakes at Newmarket last time, but he looked a bit unlucky not to beat the same rival in a Group 3 at Longchamp the time before, and that smart effort puts him right in the mix for this. The way he coped with a trip just short of seven furlongs that day offers hope that he’s equipped to deal with this drop back to sprinting for the first time since his debut, and it’s notable that Ed Walker’s string continues in good form. What’s more, the softest ground Ten Bob Tony will have encountered all year could be a positive, remembering his 5-length win on heavy going just over a year ago.

3.10 1 pt – 12 Treasure

Danielle stands out on the form of her second in the St Simon Stakes at Newbury last time, and she’s plainly a very likely winner back at listed level/back against her own sex. However, it is a slight niggle that this comes just a fortnight on, even if the Newbury race wasn’t run at an end-to-end gallop, and on value grounds it could be worth taking her on with Treasure at around four times the price. It’s worth remembering there was just a head between them when they met in the Lingfield Oaks Trial in the spring and, while the ground may well have been a good bit firmer than ideal for Danielle, the same may well apply to Treasure, a ready winner on heavy on her debut near the end of last season, and she got back on track after a couple of stiff asks in a Newmarket handicap run on good to soft last month. What’s more, she was value for extra that day given how it developed, charging home between horses to get to within a neck of the all-the-way winner. She’s run just five times in her life so it’s not hard to see her doing better again, and it’s a positive that Rossa Ryan now rides with the other Beckett filly a non-runner.

3.45 1 pt – 7 Insanity & 1pt 8 Stressfree

This is an absolutely cracking edition of the November Handicap, and in truth there’s nothing ‘short’ about the shortlist, therefore probably best to have a couple of win-only stabs, with Insanity and Stressfree the pair we’ve come down on. Some will perhaps be put off Insanity due to the fact he comes here on the back of a lesser effort in a field in which so many won or ran well on their most recent outing, but that run was excusable in our eyes, coming less than a fortnight on from winning a strongly-run Shergar Cup event in which he’d tanked through the race. Indeed, both the clock and the form of that Ascot race suggest a mark of 95 is still workable, and it’s worth noting that his previous form, also at Ascot, has worked out tremendously well, too. He’s been given plenty of time since his York run, and this is a race the yard won in 2020.

Stressfree is not a word you’d use to describe the experience anyone who backed the horse of the same name would have enjoyed at this track a fortnight ago when he ran on into third after meeting plenty of trouble, and it may well be similar again from a low draw under Spencer, but at the same time he’s ultra consistent, leaves the impression there’s still some mileage in his mark when things drop kindly and has an extra couple of furlongs to cover here, which could just elicit even more improvement.

You can access the TV Focus selections and rationale at 5pm the evening before racing for £7.50 on the Timeform website

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