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Horse racing analysis: Timeform's highest-rated two-year-olds of 2021
In the first of a new series, Adam Houghton outlines the state of play in the two-year-old division based on Timeform ratings.
The Phoenix Stakes, the first Group 1 for two-year-olds in Europe in 2021, takes centre stage at the Curragh on Sunday, so now seems like a good time to assess the pecking order amongst this year’s juveniles ahead of all the big clashes which lie ahead.
The Kevin Ryan-trained Atomic Force (112p) has produced the best performance by any two-year-old in Europe so far this season. He achieved that feat when completing a hat-trick in the Prix Robert Papin at Chantilly last time, just needing to be kept up to his work in the final furlong to make all by two and a half lengths.
He is clearly a smart juvenile and has the potential to do better still, though it remains to be seen what his next race will be. The Prix Morny would have seemed a logical target, but the fact Atomic Force was gelded after filling the runner-up spot on his debut at Musselburgh in April prevents him from taking part in that Group 1.
As for the Phoenix, Go Bears Go (111p) looks to possess the strongest form credentials after his victory in the Railway Stakes over the same course and distance last time. That was a really likeable effort as he stayed on well to land the spoils by a length and a quarter from Castle Star (107p), shrugging off the hard race he seemed to have when second in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot just nine days earlier.
The timefigure provides plenty of substance to the form and Go Bears Go remains open to more improvement, so he seems certain to be challenging for top honours this summer for the David Loughnane yard which continues to go from strength to strength.
Castle Star possibly wasn’t seen to best effect in the Railway, being forced to deliver his challenge from further back than ideal after a slow start. He had created a good impression in two previous wins and, with further progress on the cards, it will be no surprise if he gives Go Bears Go more to think about in the Phoenix.
Others to look out for in the Phoenix include the two Ger Lyons-trained entries, Dr Zempf (102p) and Beauty Inspire (101p). Dr Zempf didn’t get the rub of the green when beaten two and three quarter lengths into fourth in the Railway, but he rallied well late on and that experience on just his second start is likely to bring him on again.
As for Beauty Inspire, he justified odds of 2/1-on with the minimum of fuss when following up his debut success in the Anglesey Stakes at the Curragh last time, just doing enough to land the spoils by a length and a quarter. He is clearly going the right way and is unlikely to give up his unbeaten record on Sunday without a fight.
A couple of talented two-year-olds were in action at Goodwood last week, notably Armor (111), who showed much improved form to run out an impressive winner of the Molecomb Stakes. He responded well to pressure to draw clear in the final furlong, ultimately beating Fearby (106), a listed winner on his previous outing, by three and a quarter lengths.
Admittedly, the winning margin may have flattered Armor slightly given how the race developed, but he shapes as if likely to be suited by six furlongs and would be a serious player in a race such as the Gimcrack Stakes at York.
Asymmetric (107p) won the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood, going one place better than when beaten a head behind Lusail (107) in the July Stakes at Newmarket on his previous start.
That pair have both earned a crack at Group 1 company and Asymmetric, in particular, leaves the impression that he could yet have a bigger effort in the locker when the situation demands it. After all, he did well under the circumstances to win the Richmond, quickening smartly to lead close home after being forced to wait for a gap until over a furlong out.
The Chesham Stakes was a strong race this year and the winner Point Lonsdale (109p) is potentially a colt right out of the top drawer. He beat Reach For The Moon (107p), who easily won a novice event at Newbury on his next start, by half a length at Royal Ascot, getting on top close home despite hanging left under pressure.
Point Lonsdale didn’t need to improve on that form to extend his winning sequence to three in the Tyros Stakes at Leopardstown last time, but the feeling remains that we’ve only scratched the surface of his potential, with a race such as the National Stakes at the Curragh likely to provide him with a better platform to demonstrate what he is capable of.
A couple of also-rans from the Chesham have also advertised the strength of that form since, namely the fifth Masekela (105p) and seventh New Science (106p). New Science seemed to appreciate the better ground when winning a listed race back at Ascot last time, beating the subsequent Vintage Stakes winner Angel Bleu (103) by a length, while Masekela went on to finish a good second in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket.
The winner of that Group 2 was Native Trail (105p), a stablemate of New Science who has made the perfect start to his career with two wins from as many starts. He showed a good attitude to get the verdict by a short head at Newmarket and his strength at the finish suggests he will have more to offer when stepping up to a mile.
Other colts to mention include Perfect Power (106p), who won the Norfolk at Royal Ascot before finishing an unlucky-in-running fifth in the Richmond at Goodwood, and Berkshire Shadow (105), who won the Coventry Stakes at the Royal meeting but also failed to follow up at Goodwood.
Berkshire Shadow still ran a solid race in defeat when second in the Vintage, though, passing the post just three quarters of a length behind Angel Bleu despite conceding 3 lb to that rival and leaving the impression the steady pace on soft going didn’t play to his strengths.
As for the fillies, there is currently a tie for the top accolade between two other Royal Ascot winners, Quick Suzy (106p) and Sandrine (106p). Quick Suzy showed improved form to win the Queen Mary Stakes, beating the US raider Twilight Gleaming (101) by a length and a quarter with a bit in hand. She looks a sprinter through and through and remains capable of better, though where she goes next is uncertain after she failed to appear amongst the entries for the Phoenix at the latest forfeit stage.
Incidentally, there are still four fillies with the option of running in the Phoenix, the most interesting of which is perhaps Velocidad (99p), who made it two from two for Joseph O’Brien with a ready success in the Airlie Stud Stakes over the same course and distance last time.
Sandrine ran out a dominant winner of the Albany Stakes at the Royal meeting and she then took her form up another notch with victory in the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket last time.
She will stay at least seven furlongs and has the Moyglare Stud Stakes as an option, though the Cheveley Park Stakes would seem preferred at this stage. She is likely to be a serious contender wherever she goes and remains one to keep on the right side.
Similar comments apply to Inspiral (101P), who is unbeaten in two starts to date, including a listed race at Sandown last time. She has the large ‘P’ attached to her Timeform rating to denote that she is still open to significant improvement, with a step up to a mile in the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster likely to be in the offing according to her connections.