Timeform timefigure analysis of Jonbon, Energumene and more

Jonbon does what Jonbon does

Storm Darragh might have decimated the weekend Park run and Christmas Markets Calendar, but professional sport escaped largely unscathed even if conditions for those events staged outside were difficult pretty much everywhere. Racing here and in Ireland lost just three meetings which might have been four had Wetherby’s fixture not been controversially shunted to a 10.35am start so avoiding the worst of the winds but the four most interesting jumps fixtures – Sandown and Navan on Saturday and Huntingdon and Cork on Sunday – fortunately all beat the weather.

There might not have been many runners on show at Sandown - just ten combined in the two Grade 1 events, the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase and the Tingle Creek, both of which were sponsored by Betfair - and just how relevant the contests will be four months down the line remains to be seen.

Take the Tingle Creek for instance. Six went to post headed by the 2023 winner Jonbon who on Timeform’s weight adjusted pre-race ratings was 8lb clear of a horse (Edwardstone) he had beaten in each of their five meetings over fences with the next best of the four remaining runners (Quilixios) a further 5lb behind. With Edwardstone coming down four out, his second fall in his last four starts, admittedly still to be asked for his effort but given his previous head to head with Jonbon almost certain to have come off second best anyway, the race ended up being more of a penalty kick for Jonbon than it looked beforehand, albeit not winning by quite as far (eight lengths) as he was entitled to (almost 11 lengths) given the 1.36lb per length Timeform used to calculate the difference at the weights.

By itself, that might suggest the eventual runner-up Quilixios, and even the third JPR One, have improved, but I’d be wary of being too dogmatic about that. The clock has the first two essentially repeating what they have done before and even if either of Quilixios or JPR One did take a big step forward it would still be long odds on against either of them getting anywhere near an on-song Jonbon in a championship event. Jonbon is currently the best two-mile chaser in training in Britain, but this race told us nothing new about him and given his previously exposed shortcomings on the Old Course at Cheltenham whether he’s the right favourite for the Champion Chase I’m not sure.

It’s not unusual for the Henry VIII winner to record a faster overall time than the Tingle Creek winner – it’s been done six times since 2010 with Edwardstone in 2021 the last to do it – but Jonbon recorded a considerably faster time than Le Patron, last seen winning a handicap at Newbury in November off a mark of 146, in 2023 and the latest Henry VIII winner L’Eau du Sud finished an almost identical time difference behind Jonbon as did Le Patron.

L’Eau Du Sud’s winning time equates to a timefigure of 149 as Timeform saw it, creditable enough on the face of things, but he came home around half a second slower than Jonbon from the Pond Fence despite having reached that point around ten lengths slower and on overall time ratings he looks to me to have around another 14lb or so to find before I’d be considering him championship calibre. He’ll eke out some improvement for sure when his jumping improves, albeit not as much perhaps as market rival Down Memory Lane who’d won a beginners’ chase at Navan run at a crawl and found his lack of experience and technique exposed under different tactics – held up last here, had made all at Navan – in this more strongly-run affair.

Honky Tonk Highway won the Listed novices’ hurdle that opened the card but a timefigure of 70 says much about how slowly run the race was, much as all the other hurdles were also on the day with the exception of the handicap won by Henri The Second (136 timefigure) who relished the opportunity to tackle three miles for the first time.

Ten lengths behind Grey Dawning and eight lengths behind Ginny’s Destiny in the Turners Novices’ Chase at last season’s Cheltenham Festival, Djelo reversed form with the latter in no uncertain terms in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon on Sunday, coming home unchallenged and beating Protektorat by six lengths. None of those behind him seemed to give their running in unusually testing conditions for the track, but even so a 155 timefigure is a career best and remembering how he sprinted home from the last after a patient ride in the Haldon Gold Cup one would think that, still only six, he’s got a high 160s performance in him at some point this year.

Meanwhile, in Ireland...

There wasn’t too much to get excited about from a timefigure perspective on Navan’s Saturday card but there’s surely more to come from Sa Fureur who posted the headline figure (150) in the Listed Foxrock Handicap Chase.

Still only seven, he finished third in the Grand Annual last year on just his fourth start over fences over a trip far too sharp (wasn’t even two miles) but he’d won a Grade 3 over hurdles when trying this sort of trip for just the second time and given his pedigree seems sure to do even better, possibly quite a lot better, when stepped up to three miles.

A winning time four and a half seconds faster than the out-and-out galloper Ile Atlantique posted in the following beginners’ chase over the same distance reads well given he was much faster from three out, two out and especially the last despite that and while a 9lb rise in his mark won’t stop him winning more handicaps given he only really showed his hand after the second last he’ll surely be contesting Graded races over fences before long.

Ile Atlantique ran three of the last four furlongs fastest of all in his race having also run the opening two miles fastest too according to Course Track, so was undeniably the best on the day, but Now Is The Hour wasn’t too much slower in the final furlong despite his sixth place and, a Grade 2 winner at Haydock in February in heavy ground over three miles when winning by 17 lengths, and can be expected to do significantly better another day.

Champion Bumper winner Jasmin De Vaux took the maiden hurdle in a 119 timefigure, unsurprisingly on the slow side given he was left alone in front and only did all that was necessary, but all the same he ran a slower final time and considerably slower final furlong than Goraibhmaithagat managed in the preceding maiden hurdle. By Flemensfirth and a sole winner of his start in points over a testing three miles, he looks worth a large P to me from a timefigure perspective, running the fastest last furlong of any of the races on the card over hurdles on the way to a cosy win in a 125 timefigure.

Form pick The Yellow Clay won a very slowly-run Grade 2 Navan Novice Hurdle (timefigure just 54, easily fastest last half mile of all the hurdles races) by a neck from the enterprisingly-ridden Fleur In The Park, but he was slowing in the final furlong and I’d be surprised if there aren’t better novices around come March.

Cork’s Sunday fixture that saw the return of dual Champion Chase winner Energumene in the Grade 2 Bar One Hilly Way started with two hurdle races over a new trip that was supposedly an extended fifteen furlongs but in view of the winning times returned probably wasn’t even fifteen furlongs meaning Timeform didn’t return any timefigures for those two races.

Energumene’s Hilly Way was one of two chases, both of which were over an extended two miles, officially at least, with the other being a Grade 2 Mares Novice. It wasn’t easy to know what to expect from Energumene and the least that could be said about him is that for all he jumped to his right at the final two fences, impeding the unfortunate Banbridge, who came down as a result at the last, he retains all his zest for jumping.

The clock judges him a little more harshly, however, running the distance just a second and a half faster than the winner of the Mares, Only By Night, who was carrying 5lb less and had only a Timeform rating of 131 going into the race.

Not only that, he came home from the last over a length slower than Only By Night, all in all combining for a timefigure that Timeform settled on as 146 (Only By Night got 132) which is 31lb below his 177 peak. Jonbon’s best timefigure by comparison is 170, while El Fabiolo’s is 169. Hopefully he’ll stay sound between now and Cheltenham, comments that also apply to El Fabiolo who apparently won’t be seen out until February.

A few of interest on the level

December is usually a month when nearly all of interest that happens on the Flat, domestically at least, with all due respect to Giavellotto’s win in the Hong Kong Vase, occurs in novice races contested by two-year-olds and the race won by Bowmark, a colt by Kingman out of a winning sister to the Derby winner Serpentine and trained by the Gosdens, at Kempton last week stood out on the clock as likely to have contained a good horse or two.

A winning timefigure of 76 isn’t in itself indicative of a potential Group horse, albeit with the caveat the timefigures I returned over seven furlongs and a mile on the card were hard to pitch exactly, but a final three-furlong time that Timeform measured as 34.6 seconds (and Course Track returned as an even faster 34.27) equates to a minimum 25lb upgrade, so making his overall timerating at least 101 which is historically a high level for a newcomer.

If Bowmark is one for the notebook, runner-up Oursin, a colt by Phoenix of Spain from the family of the Melboune Cup winner Fiorente, is another.

Charles Hills has endured a dismal year by his standards with a strike-rate almost half what it has been in the preceding five seasons, but Oursin is one for next year, flashing home from an unpromising position and running a faster final furlong faster than the winner according to Course Track, entitling him to be rated right alongside the winner.

Later in the week at Newcastle, David O’Meara’s heavily-backed Rogue Alliance was no less impressive visually than Bowmark had been, winning by even further no less, but he had very little to beat – the best any of the opposition had run to beforehand was 60 – and a winning timefigure of 47 with next to no sectional upgrade (albeit he was allowed to canter home) suggests he’s a long way off being the next Night Raider as some were painting him.

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