Tony McFadden looks at the level typically needed to win the novice races at Cheltenham and reveals how this year's contenders stack up.
Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Mean Timeform performance rating of last ten winners: 158.3
Kopek des Bordes established himself as clearly the one to beat in the Sky Bet Supreme with a dominant display in the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival that earned him a Timeform rating of 154P (replay below).
Subsequent Cheltenham Festival winners Samcro, Klassical Dream, Appreciate It, Sir Gerhard and Ballyburn have all won that Grade 1 at Leopardstown since the distance was reduced for the inaugural Dublin Racing Festival in 2018. But none of them earned a higher Timeform rating at Leopardstown than Kopek des Bordes, who showed form on a par with what Ballyburn had produced 12 months earlier.
A rating of 154P places Kopek des Bordes 5lb clear of Romeo Coolio at the head of the pecking order among this season's novice hurdlers. And he has already run to a higher level than Slade Steel did when winning the Supreme Novices' Hurdle last season.
He's not quite achieved the average performance rating posted by a Supreme winner in the last ten years, which is 158.3, but has much less improvement to make than his rivals to reach that level, and the 'Large P' attached to his rating shows that he's likely capable of much better form if required.
The last horse who went into the Supreme with a higher rating than Kopes des Bordes was Altior (155p) who was successful in 2016.
Selected ratings:
- 154P Kopek des Bordes
- 149p Romeo Coolio
- 137p Salvator Mundi
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Turners Novices' Hurdle
Mean Timeform performance rating of last ten winners: 152.6
Like Kopek des Bordes, Final Demand was also a wide-margin winner at the Dublin Racing and awarded the Timeform Large P. He didn't run to quite as high a level as his stablemate managed 24 hours later, but his performance was the best in the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle since it was upgraded to top-level status in 2018.
Final Demand will probably need to progress again to win a typical edition of Cheltenham's intermediate novice hurdle, however, as only twice in the last ten years has the winner not registered a Timeform performance rating in the 150s.
He also doesn't have a huge edge on ratings over fellow unbeaten hurdlers The Yellow Clay and The New Lion. They are also open to further improvement, particularly The New Lion who didn't need to come off the bridle to win the Challow Novices' Hurdle in December.
Selected ratings:
- 148P Final Demand
- 146p The Yellow Clay
- 143P The New Lion
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
Mean Timeform performance rating of last ten winners: 145.6
The Albert Bartlett typically tends to be the weakest of the three novice hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival and were The Yellow Clay to be rerouted here he would hold outstanding claims on form having already reached a level usually good enough to land the prize.
In his absence, The Big Westerner would arguably hold the strongest claims on form once her 7lb sex allowance is taken into account, though she would still be some way short of an average winner and would probably need to progress again.
Subsequent Stayers' Hurdle winner Penhill is the pick of the Albert Bartlett winners in the last decade and the only one to register a Timeform performance rating in 150s.
Selected ratings:
- 146p The Yellow Clay
- 136 Jet Blue
- 136 Wingmen
- 132p The Big Westerner (+ 7 lb sex allowance)
Arkle Novices' Chase
Mean Timeform performance rating of last ten winners: 164.1
This has been a race in which proven quality has come to the fore as eight of the last ten winners have been top rated with Timeform going into the two-mile novice chase.
Majborough looks likely to hold that distinction this time around after divisional leader Sir Gino was ruled out for the season, denying spectators a fascinating clash between two hugely exciting prospects.
Majborough may currently be a fair way short of the average Timeform performance rating posted by an Arkle winner in the last decade but that's a lofty figure because the race has been won by some top-class chasers. Majborough retains the potential to reach that sort of level himself, though with Sir Gino out he may not be pushed to quite such heights, for all unbeaten chaser L'Eau du Sud is clearly a credible rival.
Selected ratings:
- 159p Majborough
- 156p L'Eau du Sud
- 150+ Jango Baie
Brown Advisory Novices' Chase
Mean Timeform performance rating of last ten winners: 160
Ballyburn was no match for Sir Gino when attempting to give that rival 6lb over a sharp two miles at Kempton, but the time suggests he still posted a smart performance in defeat.
Ballyburn had nothing of Sir Gino's calibre to worry about when upped in trip at the Dublin Racing Festival and he was ultimately well on top at the finish, posting the best effort by a novice chaser this season outside the two-mile division.
He'll need to improve a few pounds to reach the level of a typical winner of the Brown Advisory, though his strength at the finish at Leopardstown suggests a lack of stamina is unlikely to prevent him doing so.
Selected ratings:
- 157p Ballyburn
- 153+ Stellar Story
- 152p Jingko Blue
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