Tony McFadden highlights how the novice hurdlers this season stack up on Timeform ratings.
Romeo Coolio (Timeform rating 150p)
Champion Bumper runner-up Romeo Coolio was beaten by a more exposed rival having been sent off an odds-on favourite for the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle, but he took a big step forward on that form when running out a decisive winner of the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas.
Romeo Coolio was ridden more positively at Leopardstown where he was allowed to stride on after being left in front at the second flight and he powered nine lengths clear, despite blundering at the last hurdle.
That comprehensive victory earned him a Timeform rating of 150p which is the highest achieved by a novice hurdler so far this season and slightly higher than last year's winner Caldwell Potter (147p) was awarded. The previous year's winner Facile Vega was rated 152P after his four-length win.
Slade Steel registered a Timeform performance rating of 150 when winning the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle last season, while Summerville Boy and Klassical Dream achieved similar figures, so Romeo Coolio is already at a level that would make him highly competitive in a below-par edition of the race. The mean Timeform performance rating of a Supreme winner in the last ten years is 158.3 and the median is similar.
The Yellow Clay (147p)
The Yellow Clay had to work hard to justify long odds-on favouritism in a muddling edition of the Navan Novice Hurdle on his penultimate start, but the Lawlor's of Naas provided a thorough test and resulted in a much more dominant display.
The Yellow Clay travelled well, moved up menacingly on the turn for home, jumped on at the second last and kept up the gallop to score by eight lengths.
That took The Yellow Clay's record over hurdles to four from four and represented his best effort yet. The only winners of the Lawlor's of Naas who have registered a higher Timeform performance rating since it was upgraded to Grade 1 status in 2015 are Next Destination (150) and Champ Kiely (148), though Envoi Allen had already run to a higher level when winning the Royal Bond.
He's reportedly most likely to contest the Turners Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival - he's also favourite for the Albert Bartlett - and the mean and median Timeform performance rating reached by a Turners winner in the last ten years is around 152.5.
The New Lion (143P)
The New Lion took a big step forward on the form of his two previous hurdle victories when extending his unbeaten record in the Grade 1 Challow Novices' Hurdle and the style of success suggests there should be more to come.
The New Lion didn't have to come off the bridle to win the Challow and he still has the Timeform 'Large P' attached to his rating to show he's capable of much better form when required.
The last time a horse trained in Britain won the Turners Novices' Hurdle was Willoughby Court in 2017 but The New Lion is clearly a strong contender for Dan Skelton this time around.
Potters Charm (140p)
Like The Yellow Clay and The New Lion, Potters Charm is also a Grade 1 winner who is unbeaten over hurdles.
He perhaps didn't face as stiff a task as had looked likely in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham on his penultimate start as his main market rival Valgrand disappointed and has flopped twice subsequently. However, Potters Charm's victory in the Grade 1 Formby Novices' Hurdle at Aintree on Boxing Day appears a more solid piece of form and there was a lot to like about how he stuck to his task to assert up the run-in.
That victory was achieved over two miles but he is set to step up in trip at Cheltenham where he will bid to emulate The New One who won the race now known as the Turners Novices' Hurdle in 2013 for Nigel Twiston-Davies. However, The New One was rated 151p heading to Cheltenham so had achieved a higher level of form.
Salvator Mundi (139p)
Salvator Mundi hasn't been seen since running out a wide-margin winner of a maiden hurdle at Tipperary in May but his reputation has arguably been boosted by Sir Gino's stunning chasing debut.
Salvator Mundi was beaten only a length and three-quarters by Sir Gino and was ten lengths clear of the third in a newcomers' hurdle at Auteuil in April 2023 before both horses were purchased by Joe Donnelly.
Salvator Mundi has raced only twice since, finishing sixth in the Triumph Hurdle on his first start for Willie Mullins before bolting up by 62 lengths at Tipperary. It's clearly not straightforward to pinpoint exactly what he achieved at Tipperary so his next start will tell us more, and it will be interesting to see if he's handed an entry in Sunday's Sky Bet Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown as Mullins has used the race as a stepping stone for some of his best prospects, including Vautour and Douvan.
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