Timeform preview the Betfair Exchange Trophy Handicap Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday with Arrivederci the subject of an interesting flag ahead of the race.
The Timeform Top-Rated
Buzz (Timeform weight-adjusted rating: 159p)
Buzz remains lightly raced over hurdles and could hardly have been more impressive when successful over this course and distance last month. Held up in the early stages by Nico de Boinville, he was produced to challenge virtually on the bridle at the last, then forging clear on the run-in to win by seven lengths in ready fashion. Admittedly, this will be tougher after an 11 lb hike in the weights, especially as this represents a better class or race than the one he contested last time. There’s no doubt that he was full value for a smart performance, though, while the small ‘p’ attached to his Timeform rating denotes that he is open to more improvement. He commands plenty of respect for Nicky Henderson, who has won the race four times since the turn of the century.
The Improver
Isolate (150p)
Isolate has won his last two starts in novice hurdles, opening his account at Taunton in October and then defying a penalty to follow up at Leicester three weeks later. He faced a straightforward task on the most recent occasion and didn’t need to improve to win easily by seven lengths, whilst leaving the impression he has an even bigger effort in the locker when the situation demands it. He’ll certainly need to step up on his previous efforts to play a hand in this company, but the big-field handicap scenario ought to play to his strengths, a free-going sort who is crying out for a strong gallop. He sneaks in at the foot of weights from an opening mark of 128 and rates a fascinating contender for the Alan King yard that continues in good heart (75% of horses running to form).
The Timeform Flag
Arrivederci (157+) (Horse In Focus)
A fairly useful novice last season, Arrivederci has taken his form up another notch since switching to handicaps this winter. He made a mockery of his opening mark when winning at Wetherby on his reappearance, beating War Lord comfortably by two and a quarter lengths, and it’s entirely possible he would have followed up but for falling three out at Haydock last time. He was still travelling fluently when he came down and almost certainly would have played a hand in the finish. With further progress not out of the question, he is well worth another chance to prove himself on a good mark, especially when you consider how well his Wetherby form is working out – War Lord won the Haydock race in which Arrivederci fell, while the third has also won since.
Verdict
Buzz must be high on the shortlist after his easy win here last time, but the vote goes to one at bigger odds in Arrivederci, who didn’t get the opportunity to show what he can do when falling on his latest outing at Haydock. That was a warm race, and the way he was travelling at the time of his departure identified him as a handicapper still on the upgrade. Kid Commando, Malaya and Lightly Squeeze are others who might have a say in a typically competitive renewal of this valuable handicap.
Timeform weight-adjusted ratings
159p Buzz
158 West To The Bridge
157+ Arrivederci
156 Harambe
156 Kid Commando
155 Not So Sleepy
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