Timeform BoyleSports Irish Grand National preview

By Timeform

Horse Racing

Mon April 05, 2021 · 4y ago

Run Wild Fred comes out on top as Timeform highlight their shortlist for Monday's BoyleSports Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse.

Top Rated

Run Wild Fred (Timeform weight-adjusted rating: 170)

Run Wild Fred has failed to win in six starts over fences, but he ran a cracker when runner-up in the prestigious Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park last time, shaping like a horse who will relish the extra half-mile of the Irish Grand National. Run Wild Fred did not jump fluently in the closing stages at Gowran, but he still hit the line powerfully, doing well to get within four lengths of stablemate Coko Beach considering those momentum-halting late errors. Coko Beach, who reopposes here, has subsequently won a Grade 2 at Navan but meets Run Wild Fred on 8lb worse terms than in the Thyestes. That is enough to swing the pendulum in favour of Run Wild Fred, who was a Grade 3 winner over hurdles last season so has a touch of class to go with his deep reserves of stamina.

The improver

Escaria Ten (167p)

Denise Foster, who has taken over the licence at Cullentra House while Gordon Elliott is suspended, has an extremely strong hand here as in addition to Coko Beach and Run Wild Fred she can also turn to Escaria Ten. Escaria Ten won a couple of times over hurdles last season but was always going to make up into a better staying chaser, and he has wasted little time proving that point. He bolted up by 20 lengths in a beginners' chase at Thurles and has shown improved form in defeat twice since, chasing home Eklat de Rire in a Grade 3 at Naas before finishing an excellent third in a strong renewal of the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last month. That performance over three and three-quarter miles proved stamina is not an issue for Escaria Ten, and he remains capable of better as a chaser after only four starts in this sphere. He is one of two runners in this line-up with the Timeform small 'p' attached to his rating, which indicates improvement is expected.

The Verdict

This is an excellent renewal of the Irish Grand National and a case can be made for plenty. Latest Exhibition heads the market and it's not hard to see why as an opening mark of 153 may underestimate the strength of his form with Monkfish. Others look better value, however, and narrow preference is for RUN WILD FRED at around the 10/1 mark. He shaped really well when runner-up to Coko Beach on his handicap debut in the Thyestes and still looks well treated from just a 4lb higher mark. He is much better off with the winner on these terms and can reverse the form.