Nic Doggett provides an overview of the key things to note on the racing front on Thursday.
Listed race to savour at Warwick
Thursday’s meeting at Warwick hasn’t fared well with the weather in recent years.
Indeed, the eventmasters.co.uk Lady Godiva Mares' Novices' Chase (1.55) hasn’t been run since 2021 when won by the Alan King-trained The Glancing Queen who went on to be placed in Grade 2 company at Cheltenham on her next start before winning a handicap back there later in the season.
The prize for this listed contest hasn’t travelled far, having also been won by Noel Williams (who trains in Oxfordshire), twice by Henry Daly (Shropshire) and once apiece by Cotswold-based Nigel Twiston-Davies and the Wiltshire-based King.
There’s a strong local representation once more, though Lucinda Russell will be hoping to plunder the prize back to Scotland with El Elefante who won in Worcestershire on her last trip south. It’s also a fair schlep to Newmarket for Lucy Wadham’s team who run the very progressive mare Telepathique, a winner at the track on her most recent visit last month (also won a bumper there in 2023).
However, all of them appear to have You Wear It Well to beat according to Timeform weight-adjusted ratings on which she is 3lb clear.
A ‘Horse In Focus’, she produced a very strong timefigure when runner-up on her recent chasing debut, shaping best when 1¾ lengths second to Shecouldbeanything in a listed mares’ event at Bangor last month, jumping well but doing too much too soon and the winner rattling home with the two horses split wide apart across the run-in.
The longer trip here will suit as she stays an easy three miles and - sure to progress as a chaser – she's fancied to see off a competitive field before moving on to bigger and better things (as short as 25/1 for the mares' chase at the Cheltenham Festival).
Henderson runners to note
A look through the list of recent winners available at the bottom of Timeform’s racecards shows that Nicky Henderson won back-to-back runnings of the Heat Your Home With Alpha Maiden Hurdle in 2018 and 2019, and he has some interesting stable debutants in both divisions of this year’s renewal.
As The Fella Says is the pick of Nico de Boinville in division one (12.25). Successful on the last of his three starts in Irish points in spring-2024 after which he changed hands for £60,000, he’s a half-brother to the fair hurdler Air Drop and the fair hurdler/chaser Lime Drop, a six-time winner for Henry Daly. It’s worth noting that neither made an immediate impression over hurdles, though coincidentally Lime Drop won the 2021 renewal of the novices’ handicap hurdle that takes place on at Taunton at 12.35.
Perhaps of more interest is Bear Market in division two (12.55). He overcame obvious inexperience when edging out the promising Miami Magic on his sole outing in bumpers at Aintree in May and makes plenty of appeal now going hurdling. He's closely related to the classy African Gold and Follow The Bear, and a half-brother to recent Clonmel winner Franciscan Rock, though backers on Thursday will be more hopeful that he follows in the footsteps of his less-illustrious sibling Glorious Spirit who was the only one of the quartet to win on hurdling debut.
The market should help guide with both horses, it should be said, as both of Henderson's 2018 and 2019 winners were sent off clear favourites in big fields, suggesting that their work on the Seven Barrows gallops had been noted.
Time to strike for Williams?
In previous years the months of October and November were often good ones to look out for the runners of Jane Williams, however that wasn’t the case in 2023 and it hasn't been this season either, with both months yielding just two winners apiece.
However, November also included four horses who were runners-up, and the early signs in December have been more positive for a yard that enjoyed success on this Taunton card last year.
As the red line on the image below (taken from Timeform's trainer stats dashboard) shows, Williams’ horses are now approaching a much more standard level of form compared to previous seasons and the festive period could be a good time to follow the yard’s runners more closely.
Inside Man won the Jim Woodborne Memorial Junior "National Hunt" Hurdle (1.05) for Williams last season and though this year’s renewal is centred around the rematch between Warwick one-two Tashan and Denzil, newcomer Good For You looks an interesting contender.
He's a half-brother to winners Moosetache (French 2m1f hurdle/chase) and Officieux (2m hurdle) and out of a 2m-2m4f hurdle/chase winner who was a half-sister to the high-class 2m-3m1f hurdle/chase winner Crystal D'Ainay, so there’s plenty of class in his pedigree.
With the in-form Jonathan Burke booked (second on his only ride for the yard - Moka De Vassy who was a 50/1 runner-up at Cheltenham), a bigger run may be anticipated than the market might suggest. His stablemate Crest of Honour, in contrast, looks one for handicaps further down the line given his two performances over hurdles to date.
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