Timeform Daily View | Thursday preview and tips

By Andrew Asquith

Horse Racing

Wed December 04, 2024 · 6h ago

Andrew Asquith provides an overview of the key things to note on the racing front on Thursday.

Three points of interest

Existent of interest down in class

Once upon a time, Existent looked like developing into a high-class sprinter, winning back-to-back handicaps on the all-weather (including over this course and distance) in 2022, and he was also beaten just a neck by subsequent two-time Group 1 winner Khaadem in the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket later that year.

However, his form has been up and down on the whole since, particularly this year, but as a result he’s tumbled down the weights, and he looks interesting now down in grade in this five-furlong handicap (17:10).

Existent is now on a career-low mark of 81 (has been rated as high as 102 with the BHA) and has never raced in as low a grade handicap as the one he tackles on Thursday evening. Furthermore, he has a positive record on the all-weather, and could well be liberated by switching back to an artificial surface for the first time in two and a half years.

He has been freshened up by Stuart Williams, who is in good form and also won this race 12 months ago. Existent won’t need to bounce back to his very best to take advantage of this mark, but his natural class makes him a big danger to all at this level. He has the + symbol attached to his rating to show that he may be better than his current rating.

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William Walton a notable handicap debutant

William Walton’s pedigree jumps off the page in this mile and three quarter handicap (17:40), being a brother to top-class Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Waldgeist among other smart types, and there should be plenty more to come from him.

He is easily the most expensive horse in this field – he cost 725,000 guineas as a yearling – and, though he offered little on his debut, he has shown more on his last two starts switched to the all-weather.

William Walton progressed significantly from his initial experience when finishing third to a smart prospect at Kempton in October and he ran to a similar level at Southwell last time.

Both of those efforts came over a mile and a half and, on each occasion, he left the impression that the run didn’t get to the bottom of him. He still had plenty to do when caught behind a wall of horses around two furlongs out at Southwell, but stayed on well once in the clear without being given a hard time.

William Walton is just the type to improve further now sent handicapping (as denoted by the 'p' attached to his rating) and, while an opening mark of 78 is no gift, he seems sure to relish this longer trip. He represents an excellent yard and goes up against more exposed rivals now.

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Ivory in fantastic form

On Timeform’s scale, there isn’t a trainer in better form on the all-weather than Dean Ivory at present, and his runners need respecting with that in mind. His strike rate for November was 16%, much higher than his usual yearly average, and he also returned a £1 level-stakes profit of £25.00.

Ivory has two runners at Chelmsford on Thursday evening, namely Thomas Equinas (19:10) and Molly Valentine (19:40). Both look interesting in their own right, but we will focus on the former.

Thomas Equinas is a four-time winner over this course and distance, the latest coming two starts back at the end of October where he was perked up by the reapplication of cheekpieces, racing with plenty of enthusiasm and also taking advantage of a falling mark.

He finished last of five on his latest start back at this venue, but he did too much wrong on that occasion, failing to settle, clearly expending too much energy and he was also forced wide on the home turn, giving away too much ground. Thomas Equinas didn’t have much to offer in the straight as a result.

However, he is clearly better than he was able to show on that occasion, and he remains on a fair mark – he’s just the type to quickly bounce back for a yard whose good form is highlighted by the Hot Trainer Flag.

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