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Timeform Daily View | Thursday preview and tips
John Ingles of Timeform provides an overview of the key things to note for Thursday's racing.
Three points of interest
Ombudsman bids to build on highly-rated debut
It’s very rare for a horse to run to a Timeform rating as high as 100 or more on its debut. Only three have done so in Britain so far this year, and one of those is three-year-old Ombudsman who was given a rating of 102p for his debut success in a soundly-run novice at Newmarket last month. That particular contest has a history of going to above-average types as it was won three years ago by none other than Baaeed on his way to a string of Group 1 victories.
Trained by John & Thady Gosden and carrying the Godolphin colours, Ombudsman was allowed to go off at 18/1 for his Newmarket debut (stablemate Sword proved a disappointing favourite) but made plenty of appeal on paper beforehand as a son of Night of Thunder from a good Juddmonte family who had cost 340,000 guineas as a yearling. Despite running green when coming under pressure, Ombudsman found plenty to lead in the final fifty yards and was well on top at the finish in beating another newcomer, the Charlie Appleby-trained Arabian Light, by a length and a quarter.
Back in fifth under a penalty was the latter’s stablemate First Conquest, winner of the Wood Ditton in the spring, who showed plenty of improvement to win a competitive three-year-old handicap back at Newmarket last week, so Ombudsman’s form is already looking strong. He doesn’t hold any big entries at present, but connections might well have to consider such targets if, as expected, Ombudsman can make it two from two under a penalty in the novice at Leicester (15:10) where he’s 9 lb clear of the next horse on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings. The extra two furlongs shouldn’t trouble him as his dam won at the trip.
Well-bred fillies feature in Leopardstown maiden
Two-year-olds in Britain haven’t had a chance to race over a mile yet but their Irish counterparts get an early opportunity over the trip at Leopardstown this evening with a field of eight due to contest an interesting fillies’ maiden (18:20).
There are some well-bred newcomers in the line-up, including Moyglare Stud Stakes entry Swelter in the Juddmonte colours for Dermot Weld. She’s by Kingman out of the Nell Gwyn winner Hot Snap who was herself a half-sister to high-class middle-distance mare Midday. Aidan O’Brien won this contest last year with Opera Singer who went on to be the season’s top two-year-old filly, winning the Prix Marcel Boussac. There are two Ballydoyle newcomers in this year’s field, including Butterfly Wings who’s by Opera Singer’s sire Justify and out of a useful half-sister to Giant’s Causeway. She too holds a Moyglare entry unlike stablemate Ecstatic who is nonetheless the preferred mount of Ryan Moore. She has an eye-catching pedigree too, by top-class Japanese sprinter Lord Kanaloa and the first foal out of very smart Ballydoyle filly Magic Wand, winner of the Ribblesdale Stakes and a Group 1 winner in Australia in the Mackinnon Stakes.
However, the Aga Khan’s filly Murkala, another Moyglare entry, has some experience already and she looks the one they all have to beat. The Johnny Murtagh-trained daughter of Too Darn Hot made an encouraging start when a staying-on fourth to Ballydoyle’s Lake Victoria in what is always a hot maiden at the Irish Derby meeting late last month. That was over seven furlongs, but her pedigree strongly suggests she’ll be suited by the extra furlong here and with further improvement to come she can again finish in front of Valencia who made a promising debut herself when a never-nearer seventh in the same race.
‘Derby Day’ for female amateurs at Epsom
It might only be a 0-75 contest for older horses, but Epsom’s Ladies’ Derby Handicap (19:35) gives female amateur jockeys a rare opportunity to experience riding over the most famous mile and a half course in the country.
Serena Brotherton is always to be respected in contests such as these – she has won this race three times, in fact - and gained another success in York’s Queen Mother’s Cup last month on board the Ralph Beckett-trained Lord Melbourne. She partners the same stable’s Roost on this occasion and, with blinkers back on and in a lesser handicap than some he’s been contesting this year, he certainly enters calculations off joint top-weight, especially if conditions don’t dry out too much.
But the connections of Naasma have tasted success in the Ladies’ Derby before too and the in-form mare looks capable of another good run at her local track. Trained at Ermyn Lodge in the town by Pat Phelan, she’s been placed in all three of her runs at Epsom. A winner at Windsor in the spring, she was a creditable fifth at the same track last time when attracting strong support in the market. Her trainer provided one of Serena Brotherton’s wins in this contest when Epsom Salts was successful in 2012.
Naasma is the mount of another experienced Yorkshire-based rider Becky Smith, champion Lady Amateur in 2018 and assistant trainer to Micky Hammond. She’ll be bidding to win her second Ladies’ Derby in three years after partnering the George Scott-trained Miss Mulligan to an all-the-way success in 2022 when Serena Brotherton was beaten a neck on the runner-up.
Tip of the Day
Bated Breeze – 20:40 Epsom
Flags: Horse In Focus, Top-Rated
Gary & Josh Moore’s Bated Breeze did well in the circumstances on his first try over seven furlongs last month when fourth in an apprentice race at Goodwood. He set a strong gallop on that occasion but was headed only in the final hundred yards and beaten less than two lengths behind winner Never Dream. Dropped a pound since that run – he’s 3 lb clear on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings here - Bated Breeze returns to class 6 company and is reunited with regular partner Tom Queally who has ridden him in all his other starts. Having started out last year with Eve Johnson Houghton, Bated Breeze is seeking a first win but has shown enough to suggest he’s capable of winning a modest contest such as this and he looks worth siding with kept to seven furlongs and with a visor applied this time.
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