Timeform Daily View | Sunday preview and tips

Three points of interest

Return of the Flat

Like a jilted ex-lover throwing flowers on the grave of an old flame whilst the widow watches on, Flat turf racing returns hot on the heels of the Cheltenham Festival at the Curragh on Sunday.

The Nua Healthcare Irish Lincolnshire (3.45) is the feature race on the card, but that’s too tough a puzzle to solve at the best of times, and I’m more interested in the maidens on the card.

Adrian Murray has made the opener – the Castle Star At Capital Stud Irish EBF Maiden at 1.40 - his own in recent years with wins for Arizona Blaze and Bucanero Fuerte. Though he has no Amo Racing runner in this year’s race, Power Blue, Leblon Beach and Stonezilian all strike as likely types on paper, especially the latter who is a half-sister to Dense Star who was Listed-placed.

The Alkumait At Capital Stud Fillies & Mares Maiden (3.10) sees the third start of Wannabe Royal who has shown plenty in two starts on the all-weather this winter, but she faces the regally-bred Win Me over, a sister to five-time Group 1 winner Palace Pier.

The 2023 Champion Bumper winner A Dream To Share gives us a flavour of the jumps in the Bermingham Cameras (C & G) Maiden at 4.20, but may be made to look a little pedestrian behind €720,000 yearling purchase First Wave (Aidan O’Brien), Raykir (Dermot Weld) and the coincidentally-named Admiral Churchill (Paddy Twomey) and Winston Junior (Jessica Harrington). Mind your war-time leader bets.

Finally, the Tote.ie Irish EBF Maiden at 5.25 looks wide open. Alfred Tennyson was hardly poetry in motion in four winless starts at two, and faces stern-looking challenges here from Chester Nimitz, Mathan and Passing Phase, who has been gelded since disappointing at Cork in October.

Lies, damn lies, and statistics

“He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – for support rather than illumination.”

So said the Scottish poet and literary thinker Andrew Lang in the late 19th century, and it’s a point worth noting when picking and choosing the most relevant statistics when assessing a race.

A good example is in the Bet At racingtv.com Handicap Chase (2.52) at Market Rasen on Sunday.

The Timeform Smart Stats highlight that Sam Twiston-Davies – jockey of Mutual Respect - has a 22% strike-rate at the track, which compares favourably to an overall strike-rate of 15%

Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero's strike-rate with chasers at up to 2m3f is also at 22% which again is better than the yard’s overall record 16%

The yard – fresh from a Cheltenham Festival success with Jagwar – saddle chasing debutant Too Cool Forshrule, who was last seen finishing well down the field at Wetherby behind subsequent unlucky Albert Bartlett fifth Wendigo.

Finally, Richie McLernon has a 39% strike-rate on chase favourites.

The issue with this particular stat, is that McLernon’s strike-rate on his mount Smart Casual is 0%

Though he looked more straightforward in first-time cheekpieces last time, the horse has had 14 runs without winning, including seven starts when sent off the joint or clear favourite, all with McLernon on-board.

So, whilst this may well be the easiest race that Smart Casual has contested to date, you’d be a braver person than me to think that he was a sure-fire thing to add to McLernon’s excellent record when the money is down.

Flags could point the way

Over at Chepstow, the racing is of a higher quality, most notably the Terry S Birthday Mares' Handicap Hurdle (3.37) which sees some in-form mares going to post, as well as the first start for a new yard for the potentially very-well-treated Pawapuri.

However, it’s the concluding Best Odds Guaranteed With Dragonbet Open National Hunt Flat Race (5.17) which looks the most intriguing race on the card.

Five-year-old Gidleigh Park beat The Jukebox Man and King William Rufus when winning the race in 2023, with the year-younger Devon Dude following suit under much more testing conditions 12 months later. Harry Cobden rode the winner that day (beating a Paul Nicholls runner ridden by David Maxwell into second) and is aboard well-related newcomer Grand Garcon for his boss this year.

Tom Weston saddled the third in 2023 and has Brecharnon this time around. He is the first foal of a half-sister to the fairly useful hurdler/useful chaser in France (17f-21f winner) Allen Voran and needs a market check.

Karonacho was strong in the betting when 1½ lengths second to John Barbour in a bumper at Uttoxeter, leading briefly inside the final furlong, and this €200,000 purchase – a half-brother to the prolific French chase winner (including at Grade 1 level) Juntos Ganamos – looks a big player once more.

Let’s Getaway Love, who is from the family of the very smart chaser (stayed 3¼m) Fiddlerontheroof, and Royale Blue, who is from the family of Foxhunters' winner Bear's Affair, may need more time, a comment that also applies to Emerald Breeze who took a strong hold when fourth here on debut.

Likely to play a bigger part are the proven winners Tormund Giantsbane and Doctor Blue.

The former led late in the day when successful at Worcester on debut and was weak in the betting when almost following up under a penalty at Warwick last time.

However, the deeper form looks to be held by Taunton winner Doctor Blue who was well-backed on debut and showed that his ability matches his striking looks when fifth in a listed event at Ascot last time out. A ‘Horse In Focus’ on the back of that run and representing a yard with the ‘Hot Trainer’ flag, he ticks a lot of boxes in a fascinating contest.

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