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Timeform Daily View | Saturday preview and tips
John Ingles provides an overview of the key things to note on the racing front on Saturday.
Three points of interest
Another November Novices’ for L’Eau du Sud’s connections?
Cheltenham’s Saturday fields have held up well given the recent dry spell and it’s good to see the card’s Grade 2 novice chase attracting eight runners, something it last managed in 2007. Registered as the November Novices’ Chase (13:45) but run as the Paddy Power Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase this year, it’s a contest that has twice gone to Dan Skelton with North Hill Harvey in 2017 and Third Time Lucki in 2021.
Skelton’s runner this year is L’Eau du Sud who put a poor run in the Greatwood Hurdle at this meeting last year behind him when going on to finish second in both the Betfair Hurdle and County Hurdle along with a close fifth in the Scottish Champion Hurdle.
L’Eau du Sud reappeared this season with an impressive chasing debut under top weight in a handicap at Stratford, jumping assuredly for the most part in a front-running role for a change and coming home ten lengths clear. He looks well up to making the transition to graded company after that smart effort which puts him fully 11 lb clear in the Timeform adjusted ratings ahead of last year’s runner-up Petit Tonnerre.
While L’Eau du Sud carries the red colours of Sir Alex Fergurson, another of his part-owners is John Hales who has himself had success in this contest in the past, winning it with the Paul Nicholls-trained pair Azertyuiop in 2002 and Al Ferof in 2011.
Course winners head the weights in Paddy Power Gold Cup
L’Eau du Sud’s connections are also represented in the feature contest on Cheltenham’s card, the Paddy Power Gold Cup (14:20), where Protektorat heads the weights in a field of fifteen. On his last visit to Cheltenham, Protektorat won the Ryanair Chase at the Festival, adding to a fine record at the track where he has now won three times and been placed on another four occasions. They include a strong-finishing second in this race three years ago, though he’s racing off a 13 lb higher mark now.
More of a threat here is Ga Law who was pulled up in the Ryanair when let down by his jumping but has a particularly good record in handicap company around Cheltenham. He won this race in 2022, he too 13 lb higher now, and more recently added another Premier Handicap at the track on the New Course when successful on Trials Day in January. He looked better than ever when runner-up to Grandeur d’Ame, conceding the winner lumps of weight, when reappearing at Chepstow last month.
Also in receipt of 12 lb from Protektorat here is Ginny’s Destiny, another with an excellent record at Cheltenham. He got off the mark over fences at this meeting last year and went on to complete a course hat-trick, doing so in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase on Trials Day before finishing a good second to Grey Dawning in the Golden Miller at the Festival.
A sound-jumping front runner, Ginny’s Destiny has a similar profile to Stage Star who won last year’s Paddy Power Gold Cup for Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden. Heading the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings by 2 lb from Ga Law, Ginny’s Destiny can follow suit for the same trainer and jockey.
No easy task for Captain Guinness in Fortria hat-trick bid
Henry de Bromhead’s high-class two-mile chaser Captain Guinness goes for a third consecutive win in the Grade 2 Fortria Chase at Navan (14:33). An admirably consistent sort, he added the Queen Mother Champion Chase to his cv at Cheltenham in March after numerous placed efforts in Grade 1 company and ran right up to his best when going down by a neck to Banbridge in the Champion Chase at Punchestown when last seen.
De Bromhead is bidding to win the Fortria for the fourth year running as he was also successful with Notebook in 2021 but this looks a stronger renewal than the last couple which Captain Guinness won. He has no easy task at the weights therefore under 12-0 and the same goes for the re-opposing Banbridge who is similarly penalised for his Grade 1 success at Punchestown.
On the other hand, Willie Mullins’ representative Gentleman de Mee does look favoured by the race conditions in receipt of a handy 10 lb from that pair. He’s a former Grade 1 winner himself, successful in the 2023 Dublin Chase, and is weighted to turn the tables on Captain Guinness from Cheltenham in March when only a length and a half back in second. He suffered a rare jumping lapse when unseating at the second at Punchestown after that.
Found A Fifty reappeared with a win at Down Royal and is the potential improver in the field but he too has to concede weight to Gentleman de Mee who looks the one to beat on these terms, heading the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings by 6lb.
Tip of the Day
Rock On Tommy – 15:03 Uttoxeter
Flags: Horse In Focus, Hot Trainer, Top Rated
Reappearing from a four-month break, course regular Rock On Tommy returns to action with plenty in his favour, notably the very good form of Olly Murphy’s stable. Rock On Tommy is a three-time course-and-distance winner at Uttoxeter, with his last couple of wins coming in the summer of last year under conditional Lewis Stones who is in the saddle again here. Rock On Tommy returned to form back at Uttoxeter this summer where he was placed in both his last two starts, again shaping as though his turn was near when second to Daany last time, giving the impression he’d have been suited by a stronger gallop. On top of his solid course record, he’s well handicapped these days too, heading the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings by 1lb.
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