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Timeform Daily View | Saturday preview and tips
John Ingles provides an overview of the key things to note on the racing front on Saturday.
Three points of interest
Timeform’s top-rated pair of two-year-old colts clash in Dewhurst
A fortnight ago Shadow of Light put up the best performance by a two-year-old all season when running away with the Middle Park Stakes, showing much improved form in winning with such authority. While his trainer Charlie Appleby was leaning towards a sprinting campaign after that four-length beating of Prix Morny winner Whistlejacket, connections have decided to supplement Shadow of Light for the Dewhurst Stakes (15:00) despite having unbeaten Superlative Stakes winner Ancient Truth already pencilled in for the Dewhurst for some time. If Shadow of Light can follow up over the extra furlong – he’s bred to stay at least this far – he’d emulate U S Navy Flag who completed the Middle Park-Dewhurst double in 2017. Appleby has won the Dewhurst twice with Pinatubo in 2019 and Native Trail in 2021, both ridden by Symbol of Light’s partner William Buick.
But while Shadow of Light sets the standard with a Timeform rating of 120, just a pound behind him and with the ‘p’ symbol indicating expected improvement is Aidan O’Brien’s very promising colt The Lion In Winter. Although passed over by Ryan Moore on his debut, he made an impressive start to his career in a maiden at the Curragh in July and confirmed that he’s very much one to follow when beating the subsequent Royal Lodge winner Wimbledon Hawkeye and Godolphin’s even-money favourite Ruling Court in the Acomb Stakes at York.
The Lion In Winter’s task has been made harder by the addition of Shadow of Light to the field but he’s an excellent prospect and can improve again to be the second recent Acomb winner after Chaldean two years ago to go on to success in the Dewhurst. A year after City of Troy, he would also be a record ninth success in the race for his trainer who currently shares the honour of having trained the most Dewhurst winners.
Strong Irish raid to carry off another Cesarewitch
The Cesarewitch (15:40) has been won by Irish-trained horses in five of the last six years and with just over half of this year’s 25-strong field trained across the Irish Sea, there’s a good chance the first prize of just over £90,000 will be heading in the same direction.
All three Irish trainers who have been successful recently are represented again. Willie Mullins completed a hat-trick between 2018 and 2020 so his runner Sea of Sands needs respecting despite not having been seen on the Flat for over two years since he was trained in Germany. However, William Buick’s mount showed his wellbeing when making a successful debut for his Irish yard over hurdles at Listowel last month and looks well weighted on his old form.
The last two Cesarewitch winners, Run For Oscar and The Shunter, successful for Charles Byrnes and Emmet Mullins respectively, are back again in a bid to become only the second dual winners after Aaim To Prosper who was successful in 2010 and 2012. However, The Shunter, partnered like last year by James Doyle, hasn’t been seen since running over hurdles last November and his stable has a younger and more interesting contender near the foot of the weights. Hayley Turner gets the ride on the Timeform top-rated Jacovec Cavern carrying just 8-2. He shaped very well on his debut for Emmet Mullins after more than a year’s absence when just failing to land a gamble in a staying handicap at the Galway Festival and gets the vote to get the better of Simon & Ed Crisford’s Southwell winner Manxman who looks to have the best chance of keeping the race at home.
Alfa Kellenic bids to extend her winning streak into listed company
Craig Lidster might just have the most progressive filly in training on his hands and Alfa Kellenic, unbeaten in five handicaps on turf after an all-weather maiden success early in the year, now has her sights raised to listed company for the first time in the Boadicea Stakes (16:50), the final race on Newmarket's card.
The three-year-old has done nothing but improve since winning her first handicap at Thirsk in June from a BHA mark of 70. Further wins at York, Ayr and York again, where she stepped up to seven furlongs to win a valuable fillies’ contest at the Ebor meeting, followed before she overcame another rise in the weights back at Ayr to win last month’s Ayr Silver Cup from a mark of 93. That was a smart effort from the top of the weights in that consolation race, racing in the disadvantaged stand-side group for most of the way but ending up towards the far side and beating subsequent winner Aramram by a length and three quarters.
With further improvement to come, that form makes Alfa Kellenic the one to beat (3 lb clear on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings) with Ryan Moore an eye-catching booking for a filly who’s done all her winning to date under Tom Eaves and apprentice William Pyle. Victory would provide Lidster with his biggest success to date in just his third season with a licence.
Tip of the Day
Valiant Knight – 15:15 York
Flags: Hot Trainer, Top-Rated
Starlust has run some fine races at York this season for Ralph Beckett, winning a handicap and a listed race there and finishing a close third in the Nunthorpe, and his two-year-old half-brother Valiant Knight has been given a good chance of following in his footsteps by landing the mile nursery on the final day of York’s season. With more stamina than his very speedy half-brother, Valiant Knight has given the impression that he’s worth a try over the trip after three runs at seven furlongs.
Valiant Knight showed improved form on his latest start when going down by a short head to Godolphin colt Watching Stars in a novice at Thirsk, making the running until a furlong out but staying on once headed to go down narrowly after a sustained duel with a very game winner. The pair dominated throughout, and the fourth, Chemical, reopposes Valiant Knight here, but the selection looks to have been given a lenient mark for his nursery debut if handling the softer conditions, topping the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings by 4 lb.
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