Timeform Daily View

Timeform Daily View | Monday preview and tips

By Nic Doggett

Horse Racing

Sun March 16, 2025 · 7h ago

Nic Doggett provides an overview of the key things to note on the racing front on Monday.

Three points of interest

Hot Trainer flag key to Wolves opener

Amongst the different flags on the Timeform racecards, the Hot Trainer flag gives an obvious pointer to which horses need closer inspection when you might otherwise have paid less attention to their chance.

One such example is in the Wolverhampton opener (4.27), a tricky handicap over the extended mile in which James Owen saddles Laser Focus and Enthused.

Though out of luck at the Cheltenham Festival last week, Owen has enjoyed a tremendous season so far, recording a 24% strike-rate on the all-weather, and a Run To Form (RTF) figure of 66.32% - 15th out of all the trainers who have had runners.

Jockey bookings on Monday would suggest that Laser Focus – who is in a first-time hood – is the lesser fancied of the pair, and Enthused makes more appeal, still at double-figure odds.

A hurdling winner over two miles, he was always likely to find the seven-furlong trip too sharp when running here earlier this month but he still shaped okay without threatening to win.

From a handicapping point of view, his last Flat win came off 82; he’s now 6 lb lower and the likely strong pace set by Urban Sprawl, Kingdom Of Time and Get Jiggy With It should suit this hold-up horse perfectly.

Now stepped up to the extended mile, and cheekpieces fitted again (all seven wins for Owen have been in headgear), a much better performance is expected.

Owen runner hard to get away from at Southwell

Over at Southwell, Owen appears to have a more obvious chance of success with Escapologist in the Play At The Races Stableduel Novices' Hurdle (3.30).

You sometimes find that novice races present exaggerated ratings claims for a horse due to a general lack of form, so it doesn’t always prove the wisest move to rely solely on weight-adjusted-ratings in these races, but Escapologist is 6 lb clear of his rivals with a ‘small p’ denoting that more improvement is expected.

Considering that all six rivals have run at least twice over hurdles, that is fairly emphatic, and it is easily the biggest ratings discrepancy between the top-rated and next-best in any British race on Monday.

Escapologist has looked a different proposition since joining Owen from Joe Ponting, winning at Fakenham (by half a length from Aviation) before finding that same rival just too strong back there a month later.

The horses that finished either side of him have both been pulled up in the European Breeders' Fund Betfair 'National Hunt' Novices' Handicap Hurdle Final since, but both were out of their depth.

This looks a lesser race, and with more improvement anticipated, Escapologist looks the one they all have to beat.

History repeating at Down Royal?

The Bluegrass Stamm 30 Chase (3.37) is the feature race on the card at Down Royal but with only four runners, it’s quite a disappointing turnout for a race that has been won in the past by a host of classy Gordon Elliott-trained runners – perhaps most notably Jury Duty in 2019 – and by Longhouse Poet in 2023 and Adamantly Chosen last year.

Elliott may well regain the trophy with likely favourite Favori De Champdou, though there isn’t much on Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings between him and Gold Cup Bailly once the 7 lb penalty is taken into account. The mare Jumping Jet – getting plenty of weight from both – isn't out of it, either.

David Christie’s runner Marronstown looks up against it, but he has more interesting runners later on, most notably Big Interest in the Bluegrass Mare Prepare Hunters Chase (4.47).

Christie has often used the race as a stepping stone to bigger targets at Aintree and Punchestown with some of his stable stars and won five of the seven renewals between 2017 and 2023.

The 2018 winner Eddies Miracle was moving menacingly when coming down in the Aintree Foxhunters on his next start, while 2020 winner Winged Leader went on to be second in the Cheltenham Foxhunters later in his career. Some Man shaped better at Aintree than his finishing position of 11th might suggest after landing the 2021 renewal of this race.

Strong traveller Big Interest created a good impression when winning here (by 4¾ lengths from subsequent Cheltenham Foxhunters runner-up Its On The Line) in December and has likely found the ground too soft in two disappointing starts since. The drop in trip and better ground should suit and he can put his name in the hat for a trip to Liverpool with a good performance.

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