John Ingles outlines the Timeform view on day three of the Cheltenham Festival.
Three points of interest
Novice Jagwar makes plenty of appeal in Plate
As in the two Grade 1 contests on Thursday’s card, Shakem Up’arry returns in a bid to win the Plate Handicap Chase (16:40) for the second year running, while 2023 winner Seddon is another trying to become the first since Elfast, successful in 1992 and 1994 when it was the Mildmay of Flete, to win it twice. However, along with top weight Conflated, third in the Gold Cup and Ryanair at the last two Festivals, the two former winners are a couple of the senior runners in the line-up.
In contrast, the lightly-raced Jagwar is only a six-year-old and could prove too hot to handle for his largely older and more exposed rivals. Trained by Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero for J. P. McManus, Jagwar had the option of taking on fellow novices earlier on the card but there are fewer unknown quantities in this contest, and he looks the one to beat with further improvement likely.
Very much a chasing type on looks, Jagwar has left his hurdles form well behind this season, winning three of his four starts over fences. He won at Wetherby and Bangor in the autumn but ran his best race last time, over course and distance, when landing the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase on Cheltenham’s Trials Day with a sound round of jumping.
That’s traditionally a strong race of its type and a good pointer to the Festival. The 2020 winner Simply The Betts himself followed up in the Plate, while more recently Paul Nicholls’ pair Stage Star and Ginny’s Destiny (another of Jagwar’s rivals here) have gone on to finish first and second respectively in the Golden Miller. Heading the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings, a 7 lb rise doesn’t look enough to stop Jagwar winning again.
Fact To File can land sixth Ryanair for Mullins
Last year’s winner Protektorat features among the nine runners declared for the Ryanair Chase (15:20) and he comes into this year’s contest in top form after bolting up in the Fleur de Lys Chase at Windsor in January. He returned to his best reverting to front-tactics which enabled him to comprehensively turn the tables on Djelo who’d beaten him in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon the time before when Protektorat had been held up. Djelo has since won the Denman Chase and has gone from strength to strength this season but has more to do here.
Protektorat and jockey Harry Skelton might have their work cut out to adopt the same tactics as last time with Il Est Francais among his rivals this time. Trained in France by Noel George and Amanda Zetterholm, Il Est Francais shaped as though he’d win the King George in the same manner he’d won the previous season’s Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton twelve months earlier but couldn’t hold off Banbridge in the latter stages after jumping superbly in front for most of the way. He could take some pegging back over this shorter trip if proving as effective over this more undulating track.
With a sound pace looking guaranteed, that could set things up nicely for another dropping back from three miles, Fact To File. Last year’s Brown Advisory winner has been outstayed by stablemate Galopin des Champs in his last couple of starts at Leopardstown when runner-up in the Savilles Chase and third in the Irish Gold Cup, effectively ending his own Gold Cup prospects. But prior to that he’d beaten the dual Gold Cup winner over the shorter trip of the John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase in which both made their reappearance and the return to two and a half miles should suit him ideally.
Two of Willie Mullins’ John Durkan winners, Min and Allaho, went on to win the Ryanair later the same season and Fact To File, who heads the Timeform ratings and earned the ‘Horse In Focus’ flag last time, can do the same. Mullins has won the Ryanair a record five times in all since 2016, with Allaho winning it twice.
Paddy Power welcome offer
Teahupoo next to win a second Stayers’ Hurdle?
Previous winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle (16:00) have a good record when returning to defend their title. When Big Buck’s won his four Stayers’ Hurdles between 2009 and 2012, he was following on from Inglis Drever who had himself won three of the previous four renewals. Baracouda became the first dual winner this century in 2002 and 2003, while the latest to successfully defend the Stayers’ crown was Flooring Porter, the winner in 2021 and 2022.
Teahupoo made his first Festival appearance in the Champion Hurdle but stamina is his strong suit and he was sent off favourite for his first Stayers’ Hurdle in 2023 when finishing third to stablemate Sire du Berlais, a shock winner at 33/1. But Gordon Elliott learnt from that experience, and it was a fresher Teahupoo who won the following season’s Stayers’ Hurdle. He had just the one run beforehand, winning the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse in December. He’s had the same preparation this winter, and while he couldn’t complete a hat-trick of wins in the Hatton’s Grace, there was no disgrace in finding the speedier Lossiemouth, with her mares’ allowance, too quick over two and a half miles on good ground.
Conditions here might not be quite as testing Teahupoo would want ideally, either, but he boasts the best form, being 5 lb clear on Timeform ratings over next-best Home By The Lee. The latter has contested the last three Stayers’ Hurdles, with his best placing being third last year. Also third to Teahupoo at Punchestown later in the spring, Home By The Lee arrives on the back of two verdicts over Bob Olinger, including in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown last time.
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
