Grey Dawning: The highest-rated novice chaser in Britain
Timeform analysis | Grey Dawning a Brown Advisory contender
By Timeform
09:38 · TUE January 16, 2024
Grey Dawning's victory in the Grade 2 Hampton Novices' Chase at Warwick on Saturday has been underestimated according to the ratings experts at Timeform who feel he has "all the qualities required to put up a proper showing" in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
Grey Dawning was cut to a top price of 10/1 (from 20/1) for the Brown Advisory but Timeform's race reporter felt a more severe reaction would have been justified after Dan Skelton's rising star put up the best performance by a novice chaser trained in Britain this season.
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Timeform's report read: "There was no let up in the pace from the word go in this Grade 2 novice, Apple Away and Broadway Boy not doing their own chances much good by forcing things, but Grey Dawning was clearly much the best regardless and was quite rightly trimmed in the betting for the Brown Advisory, just arguably not by so much as might have been expected.
"Grey Dawning was very much the one the market wanted to know even up against others that had made a bright start over fences and, whilst he was aided by being kept away from the strong pace set by Broadway Boy and Apple Away, the way in which he jumped/travelled before powering clear over the final 2 fences was undeniably impressive, a little surprising he was still available to back at 10/1 for the Brown Advisory given he's got all the qualities required to put up a proper showing in that race (likely to run in the Scilly Isles at Sandown first by all accounts); in touch, jumped fluently, travelled smoothly, produced to lead approaching 2 out, jumped left there, drew clear, had plenty in hand and was still notably strong at the finish of a well-run race on testing ground."
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That 14-length success earned Grey Dawning a Timeform rating of 158, which is a figure only Il Est Francais (160P) and Marine Nationale (159p) have exceeded in novice chases so far this season (Gaelic Warrior is rated 158p).
The market for the Brown Advisory is headed by Grangeclare West (155p) and Fact To File (157p) for the Willie Mullins stable. The shortest-price British contender is Paul Nicholls' Stay Away Fay (150p) who had Grey Dawning in third when making a successful chasing debut at Exeter and then showed a cracking attitude to repel Giovinco at Sandown. Grey Dawning has clearly progressed since Exeter, however, and his Warwick effort marked him out as a serious Cheltenham contender.
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