Timefigure tips for Aintree Grand National meeting day three

By Graeme North

19:58 · SAT April 15, 2023

Timeform's Graeme North assesses Aintree with his timefigure hat on and he feels Dark Raven can win on Saturday.

Aintree Day Three Timefigure Tips

Back Au Fleuron each-way in 2.25 Aintree at 16/1

Back Dark Raven in 3.00 Aintree at 5/1

I found myself wondering yesterday when the last time was that I backed the winner of the Grand National and sadly, I must admit, I couldn’t recall exactly when that was.

That’s not an admission that the next couple of paragraphs are worth skipping, as hopefully there will be a helpful pointer or two in them if not a definitive selection, but long-distance chases don’t lend themselves to timefigure analysis in the manner that races over shorter distances do, and not least in this particular example given it remains, despite having its distance ‘shortened’ several years ago, the longest handicap chase in the calendar.

That said, significant changes to the fences in recent years have made them easier to jump, resulting in fewer casualties, so making the race less the unique test it once was when the ‘Aintree factor’ really was a thing. So, which horses feature highly on the clock?

Last year’s one-two Noble Yeats and Any Second Now are well up there as might be expected, though they must overcome significant rises in the weights having finished 20 lengths clear of the remainder last year. All the same, both arrive in top form, not least Noble Yeats who finished fourth last time out in a career-best 165 timefigure in the Cheltenham Gold Cup where he ran the last half-mile a second faster than anything else except the winner Galopin Des Champs according to Course Track, and was closing that gap in the final furlong.

The sectionals for last year’s National show that Any Second Now ran the last half-mile over half a second faster than Noble Yeats despite running the last furlong over two lengths or so slower, so it might be he’ll be ridden with more of the patience he was in 2021 when third despite some bad interference (he also ran the fastest penultimate furlong that day too according to Course Track).

Last year’s ninth Escaria Ten has a timefigure in the 2022 Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse when just pipped by Any Second Now that theoretically gives him leading claims but his profile since is unconvincing to say the least and I’ve still not forgiven the ride he was given in the 2021 National Hunt Chase.

More interesting is the 2021 Albert Bartlett winner Vanillier whose second conceding 8lb to Kemboy in the latest Bobbyjo in a 153 timefigure was a very promising warm-up and stamina is unlikely to be an issue.

The progressive Our Power is right up there with the best on the clock but all his last five wins have come right-handed.

Le Milos was turned over at Kelso last time but that’s a chase track Harry Skelton finds hard to ride (beaten on a large number of short-priced horses from a fair-sized sample) and his previous win in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury (now 5lb worse off with Corach Rambler who was back in fourth and who himself has a leading time-based chance on his 145 effort in that race and subsequent 144 win in the Ultima at Cheltenham) in a 152 timefigure puts him high up on the shortlist.

Also in that small cohort is Gaillard Du Mesnil and if I had to be prompted for a selection, he would be the one.

He made very hard work of a straightforward task in a messily-run National Hunt Chase but a mark of 155 is far from harsh for a Grade 1-winning chaser (153 timefigure at Leopardstown over Christmas) who also has sufficient speed to mix it with the best over shorter trips at the highest level in Ireland, and the return of Paul Townend in the saddle is a bonus.

Neither of the races that bookend the three Grade 1s, the opening Maghull Novices’ Chase which looks a cakewalk for Jonbon, nor the Liverpool Hurdle, which brings together again several extremely chaotic formlines, appeal for betting purposes but the middle one of the three, the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle, in which Hermes Allen is on a retrieval mission after his Ballymore flop, does.

Anyone who reads my weekly Watch And Learn column will be aware I’ve been fairly cool on the prospects on Hermes Allen for a while.

He might have been followed home by several subsequent winners in the Challow but most of those won races subsequently they were entitled to win and his Newbury win in what wasn’t a spectacular time saw him racing on what was probably the favoured part of the track.

His tall reputation has ensured he can still command favouritism for this but its not easy to forget how much better the Irish novice hurdlers were than the British ones at Cheltenham (first eight home in the Supreme, first four in the Ballymore) and it’s one who ran in the former race, DARK RAVEN, who interests me most here.

The winner of a 22-runner maiden at Leopardstown at Christmas, he has since finished third in the Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland Novice (formerly the Brave Inca) at the Dublin Racing Festival when having Irish Point well behind and then sixth to Marine Nationale in the Supreme.

The strength of that form as I see it is way above any of his rivals including Hermes Allen can boast in this contest, timefigures of 137 and 142 are easily the best in the field and the step up to two and a half miles promises to unlock further improvement as it did with his stable-companion Impaire Et passe in the Ballymore.

He should be clear favourite in my opinion and the 9/2 (5/1 in places) strikes me as a good bet.

With the concluding bumper unattractive and the handicap preceding the National hard to find a timing edge in, I’ll turn my attention to the three-mile handicap hurdle for my other bet and put forward AU FLEURON who regular readers will remember I selected in the Martin Pipe in my final Cheltenham timefigure preview.

Hopefully he won’t follow the fate of another horse from that same column I also stayed faithful to this week, A Plus Tard, who sadly looks now to have an issue of some sort, as I’m expecting plenty of upside with Au Fleuron stepped up to three miles for the first time.

The winner of a point-to-point and bumper, he made his hurdle debut over two and a half miles but despite a pedigree chock full of stamina other than two runs in the Martin Pipe he has been kept to shorter distances (if only slightly on a couple of occasions) since.

He caught my eye staying on well from midfield in a handicap at Punchestown on the final day of 2022 and then did so again in the Martin Pipe when running the final furlong faster than all bar the winner Iroko.

Blinkers replace cheekpieces and, able to run effectively off a 4lb lower mark than at Cheltenham, he looks well worth each-way support at 16/1.

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