Timeform's Graeme North analyses the recent jumps action with his timefigure hat on and he nominates some horses to follow.
Now the bulk of the domestic Flat season is out of the way, this column is back to analysing the action over the sticks, at least until the Craven meeting comes around. Ideally, plenty of high-ranking performances pinpointed by a combination of solid overall times and impressive fractional times would have been nice to have got stuck into but the ‘unseasonably’ dry weather has meant runners have been thin on the ground, not just here but even on the nursery slopes of Irish point-to-pointing where only three races this weekend attracted a double-figure field.
Hopefully, this coming week, when the likes of Cheltenham Festival winners Slade Steel, Jonbon and Stellar Story are either in action or rumoured to be, will kick things up a notch.
Before I get round to recent events, I’ll just recap a few horses that impressed me on various parts of the clock last season and whom I’m looking forward to seeing in action again.
Most of those produced their best efforts over fences but over the smaller obstacles I must admit to liking Sir Gino, whose Aintree win in what I calculated to be worth 150 on a combination of overall time, final circuit time and finishing sectionals over the last three hurdles.
Ballyburn (161) was the best of the novice hurdlers on my figures last year and he’ll take high rank whether he sticks over hurdles or ends up chasing but if there’s a hurdler from last year who I suspect is also potentially top class but is still under the radar right now it’s Iberico Lord.
He ran combined figures of 160 and 151 by my estimation last year and did enough to earn a supplementary entry for the Champion Hurdle but ran poorly, most likely affected by the bug that was raging through the Henderson yard at the time. Henderson said in a recent trainer interview with Sporting Life that Iberico Lord was ready to go over fences and 40/1 for the Arkle looks a very decent ante-post nibble to me given he is reported to be staying at two miles.
Among those who ran over fences last season, Inothewayurthinkin (168) tops my list of most looked-forward-to horses.
He could hardly have shaped more promisingly when third to Gaelic Warrior and Il Etait Temps at Limerick over Christmas and fulfilled that promise and more when winning at two spring Festivals, making a mockery of an official mark of 145 in the Kim Muir before beating Iroko and Heart Wood and in the Grade 1 Mildmay at Aintree when he ran a final circuit time around 4 seconds faster than Jonbon, who was racing at a trip five furlongs shorter, as well as faster times from each of the last three fences.
The form of that race has already been franked by Heart Wood and Chianti Classico this season and one suspects that Iroko will also take high rank this season assuming he gets a clear run at things this time around. The aforementioned easy Arkle winner Gaelic Warrior (169 on my combined figures) and Grey Dawning (168) are two others who can surely break into the 170s, not least the latter who won his only start at three miles very easily and who will surely be given more opportunities to make the most of his stamina this year.
Timeform’s highest timefigure from the season-opening Chepstow two-day fixture was posted by runner-up Ga Law in the two-mile three furlong handicap chase won by Grandeur D’Ame. Worth noting is that the winner didn’t go on last season after an early Wetherby win, but there might still be upside to Ga Law whose 157 timefigure was an 11lb increase on his best from last season and a career best over fences by 8lb.
The best figure over hurdles (137) was posted by Take No Chances in the Silver Trophy, a race that has already started to work out well with Dan Skelton’s mare going two places better in an identical timefigure in impressive fashion in the listed Mares’ Hurdle at Wetherby, the seventh Tightenyourbelts making a successful switch to fences in a 131 timefigure and the ninth Act Of Authority winning at Sandown.
Of the plenty from that race still to reappear, runner-up Doyen Quest looks the most interesting going forward. An ex-pointer, he won three of his last four races last season and improved again here while throwing a career-best timefigure into the ring as well.
There were some famous names on show at Punchestown in mid-October when Group 1 winners Conflated, Hewick and Minella Indo clashed in the Grade 3 Carvill’s Hill Chase but in another reminder that betting at this early stage of the season is a potential minefield, victory went to the racefit French Dynamite who wouldn’t normally be considered to be within 10lb of that trio yet won readily after being gifted a soft lead. Neither his winning timefigure (127) nor that of the other Graded winner on the card, Jordans (134), was anything to write home about and he’s already been well beaten since (along with Conflated) in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby. Early-season form to take with a pinch of salt.
At Kempton several days later, Rubaud got his season off to a winning start in a listed two-mile hurdle.
A 151 timefigure improved on anything he’d achieved previously by 4lb, and even the 148 he posted subsequently when winning the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton for the second season in succession was an improvement on what went before this season. He’s always come up short in the best company over hurdles, however, but it’s not hard to see him running up a sequence in two-mile novice chases which is reportedly his mission now given those races attract hardly any runners and which he can dominate form the front besides which there won’t be many better he’ll encounter in that that sphere with superior form than him over hurdles.
Carlisle stages the odd decent early-season contest and anyone who’d seen Johnnywho score at one of their November meetings last season would surely have thought that he was on his way to the top over hurdles. He didn’t get that far, albeit finishing fourth in the Challow and eighth in the Albert Bartlett before running a career-best 137 timefigure in defeat in a handicap at Aintree, but he’s always looked a budding chaser and he couldn’t have scored more easily despite the small winning margin at Carlisle again on his return.
A 123 timefigure is reflective of a steady pace but factor in his final circuit time as well as finishing fractionals and I’ve pencilled him at 149. One to be very positive about.
There was plenty written about Valgrand after his win in the Grade 2 Sky Bet Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham’s opening jumps fixture, not least his opening BHA rating which at 140 is already higher than the three (unsuccessful) novices that contested last season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
A final circuit time at least four seconds faster than any of the other winners on the card reads well enough, for all two of those races were over further, and a Timeform timefigure of 141 has only been matched or bettered by a novice in either September or October since 2020 on just three occasions. That said, his trainer Dan Skelton seemingly seems unconvinced and besides that I’d question why he needed to be ridden out so vigorously after the last despite being a mile clear.
Perhaps there’s not much more to come. The best timefigure of the two-day meeting came the following day when The Wallpark landed the Pertemps Qualifier for Gordon Elliott in 142. Fifth-placed Beacon Edge might have looked to frank the form when winning the West Yorshire Hurdle at Wetherby the following week but that was a very weak race run at a dawdle and the presence in fourth at Cheltenham of a horse 6lb out of the handicap suggests there will be stronger qualifiers run than this one.
Plenty might have been written about Valgrand but even more flak – mostly on social media – flew Ahoy Senor’s way after his third place in the Old Roan at Aintree. Conceding 6lb and more all round, including to the 2023 Turners winner Stage Star who had made a winning reappearance last season, he finished with a lot of running left under a patient ride albeit over a trip short of his best but a 155 timefigure is a remarkable one given his well-documented ‘reappearance struggles’.
He reverted to Graded company after taking in the Coral Gold Cup last season, finding it all a struggle other than when giving Gerri Colombe a massive fright in the Bowl and with the tough Aintree fences now part of folklore this might be the season for him to have a crack at the Grand National.
As he did in 2023, when successful in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase, Gerri Colombe made his reappearance at Down Royal but on this occasion could finish only third behind the still sprightly old-timer Envoi Allen as well as Hewick who both finished upwards of twelve lengths ahead of him.
I wouldn’t be too downhearted by this performance seeing as the ground was quicker than last year when he’s best on much deeper ground than even then anyway, and his 150 timefigure was a fair step forward on anything he’s produced on his reappearance before. Indeed, Gerri Colombe’s timefigure was the third fastest of the weekend at Down Royal after Envoi Allen and Hewick and the fastest of all Gordon Elliott’s runners.
I’m not telling anyone anything new here as this is a meeting Elliott targets every season (Willie Mullins hasn’t had a winner at in since 2019) but it interesting to note that none of Elliot’s eleven winners last year (from twenty eight runners) went on to score at Cheltenham albeit three of them besides Gerri Colombe also finished second in the shape of Brighterdaysahead, Found A Fifty and Irish Point.
The aforementioned Brighterdaysahead made a smart reappearance in the Grade 3 Bottlegreen Hurdle, scoring in a 147 timefigure which is 11lb better than she managed at the equivalent fixture last year, though her stablemate runner-up King Of Kingsfield surely emerges with just as much if not more credit given two miles looks an absolute minimum for him nowadays, while Champion Bumper runner-up Romeo Coolio made a highly promising debut scoring with any amount in hand in a 122 timefigure; over fences, their stablemate Firefox (137) made an adequate start over the bigger obstacles while Found A Fifty (lowly 123) wasn’t extended to concede wight all round in the Grade 3 chase.
In the Charlie Hall, The Real Whacker, who earlier in his career beat Gerri Colombe at Cheltenham, ran a 157 against older rivals three of whom would be qualified for veterans chases, so this might have been his ‘Gold Cup’; at Ascot all the cards aligned for Chianto Classico who was able to set a steady pace (timefigure just 101) conceding weight all round to inferior rivals, so I wouldn’t be going overboard about this form either.
A spate of ground-related renewals led to Exeter’s Haldon Gold Cup meeting losing some of its more interesting runners. The feature race went cosily to JPR One in a timefigure Timeform returned as 141 but with some confusion over exactly what the exact race distances were on the day (no additional yardage was given despite rail movements and the added yardage later relayed to Timeform seemed somewhat dubious) that is probably as high as it wants to be.
Arguably, similar remarks apply to Saint Sam (159) who won the Clonmel Oil Chase in bizarre fashion with all bar the horse who chased him for the most part given far too much to do and the eventual runner-up Fil D’Or running the final circuit well over four seconds faster from an impossible position.
At least there was no such querying the legitimacy of the Badger Beer result, with evergreen veteran Al Dancer making all under a promising 7lb claimer to score in a 155 timefigure, a 2lb increase on his previous best, but a 5lb rise in his mark and a propensity to run his best races first time out suggest addressing his chances going forward.
There was little quibbling the validity of the Grade 3 Barberstown result at Naas on Sunday either, with Quixilios in his element forcing tactics against just four rivals at two miles at a track he has won at under similar conditions before. With Marine Nationale once again looking a pale shadow of the horse who won the Supreme, however, he wasn’t left with a lot to beat and ready defeats last season in the Arkle (albeit a race working out very well) and the Maghull at Aintree makes me think I’d like to see this effort (155 timefigure) confirmed in stronger company before being convinced he’s improved much.
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