El Fabiolo with winning connections

Timefigure analysis of Jonbon, El Fabiolo, Stay Away Fay and more

By Graeme North

Horse Racing

Tue December 12, 2023 · 1y ago

Timeform's Graeme North only has one horse in mind for the Queen Mother Champion Chase after the weekend's action on either side of the Irish Sea.

‘Straight to Kempton!’ The latest undesirable twist in a winter domestic jumps season that, as I wrote last week, is slowly imploding at the top end after Constitution Hill and Shishkin were pulled out of the weakest Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle in years with trainer Nicky Henderson citing overly demanding ground ahead of a Christmas Hurdle target on Boxing Day. Disappointingly little fight there then in a race proudly named after the Royal Northumberland Fusiliers.

The same afternoon, albeit some way down the food chain, The Imposter won his third race of the season, all of which have come in the space of twenty-seven days on very testing ground, with Saturday’s win only thirteen days on (less than the gap between the Fighting Fifth and the Christmas Hurdle) from his previous win. The platform formerly known as Twitter and the Betfair Forum aren’t always well-reasoned sounding boards regarding the fixation top-level domestic jumps racing currently finds itself in, but the disillusionment with the current state of affairs on both is clear and is still creeping.

Betfair ambassador Paul Nicholls is not usually a trainer associated with ducking races but Stage Star is one of his horses that reportedly might not be seen before Cheltenham and another of his up-and-coming stable stars Stay Away Fay is another who might go straight there if comments made by his owners after he’d extended his unbeaten record to two from two over fences in the listed Betfair Esher Novices’ Chase at Sandown are to be believed.

Stay Away Fay had only two runs before winning the Albert Bartlett last season, but going to the Festival with such limited experience over fences up having only come up against a handful of rivals would surely be foolish. After all, it’s not as if Stay Away Fay has been altogether convincing over fences so far. He hit a notable flat spot and 130/1 in running before staying on strongly from the last to beat The Changing Man on his fencing debut in an ordinarily-run race at Exeter on his debut (timefigure just 114) and he hit a high of 3.05 at Sandown before wearing down Giovinco who’d won a novice handicap at Aintree the time before when plenty of fences were omitted to score in another ordinary 112 timefgure.

Circuit time and sectional comparisons at both Exeter and Sandown tell me those efforts could be elevated to the mid-140s, higher than the level he reached over hurdles, so given how he won the Albert Bartlett I’d expect a fair bit more progress in a properly-run race but finding himself in that scenario at the Festival without another run runs the risk of exposing his lack of experience. Hopefully he’ll run again.

Unlimited Replays

of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays

Discover Sporting Life Plus Benefits

The feature hurdle on the card, the Grade 2 Betfair Beacons Winter Novices’, went to Harry Skelton’s Deafening Silence in a 127 timefigure. The pace mid race had been much hotter than either of the other two hurdles races on the card which explains the plodding finish (four seconds slower than either from two out) but Deafening Silence had looked only third best going to the last hurdle and if I had to take a horse from the race it would be runner-up Insurrection who had travelled smoothly in front for most of the way only to get outstayed.

Saturday’s card might have lacked Constitution Hill and Shishkin (as well as another promising stablemate of theirs, Willmount) but Henderson did allow Jonbon to take his chance in the Tingle Creek and he confirmed recent Shloer Chase form with Edwardstone without wowing me with his performance despite a career-best 166 timefigure.

A closing sectional from three out just half a second faster than 16/1 shot Le Patron posted in the Henry VIII over the same trip and one from the final fence identical to that posted by Truckers Lodge in the marathon handicap chase suggest that this was a race that tested stamina above all else and rather than trying to bang heads again with the speedier El Fabiolo in the Champion Chase Jonbon would seem to me be better off stepping up to two and a half miles sooner rather than later.

Third-placed Haddex Des Obeaux (160 timefigure) turned in a career best, proving conclusively he was unlucky when tipping up at the last in a handicap at Cheltenham last time, and his mid-race exertions probably accounted for his last-fence lapse but for which he might well have finished second. Le Patron’s timefigure in the Henry VIII was 149. He’s improving fast, having won a novice handicap here over an extra half mile off a BHA mark of 122 on his previous start, but that he was able to do so dropped back in trip significantly up in grade suggests this effort was a fair bit below the level that Jonbon and Edwardstone had scaled in the previous two renewals.

As mentioned earlier, the field assembled for the Fighting Fifth was a shadow of the race it once was with Timeform 139-rated You Wear It Well competing with favouritism with 2023 Dawn Run Mares’ Hurdle second Love Envoi with quirky pair Not So Sleepy and Goshen making up the foursome. Not So Sleepy, who turns twelve next month, has run in each of the last four Champion Hurdles and never finished any better than fifth when not pulled up, so this win is unlikely to hold much relevance a few months down the line.

A 108 timefigure is further evidence that the merit of the form is almost certainly a whole lot less than the apparent sum of its parts and closing sectionals from all of three out, two out and the last no better or slower than the Timeform 137-rated Spirit D’Aunou managed in the following handicap over the same trip despite a much slower overall time further dampens my view of the form.

Once again, the less said the better about Aintree where for once there wasn’t low sun and omitted fences but desperately testing conditions instead which saw a couple of the winners barely clamber over the final obstacle. At least there was some relevant action over in Ireland as there was on Sunday too, but I’ll deal quickly with Clonmel on Thursday first where Chapeau De Soleil made a bit of a splash in the markets for the Ballymore and Albert Bartlett with a nine-length win.

His stable has no end of similar promising prospects, but those races are a long way off for Chapeau De Soleil I’d suggest having run a slower final circuit time than the preceding winner Kalanisi Dubh managed off an official handicap mark of 92 and slower closing sectionals than Kitsilano managed on deteriorating ground off an official mark of 94 later in the card. The three-mile hurdle won by the once smart Cash Back showed how testing conditions were becoming by the middle of the card as he staggered past the line after his only challenger stopped to a walk herself at the final flight.

Saturday’s Navan card threw up a few interesting prospects with one of them looking potentially top class. The card opened with four hurdles and saw Jigoro show a smart turn of foot to win the opener by a wide margin. A 66 timefigure isn’t anything to shout about, but he came home from all of the last three obstacles much faster than the other hurdles winners and if assessing him sectionally I’d ballpark him in the mid-130s.

If he looked promising, Caldwell Potter looked even more so in the following maiden, paying a good compliment to his Punchestown conqueror It’s For Me from that warm maiden hurdle there (2023 Triumph fifth Ascending was third, well clear of the rest) by dispatching a twenty-five strong field in smart 135 timefigure I could edge up to 139 after taking his closing sectionals into account.

http://media.paddypower.com/redirect.aspx?pid=XXX&bid=7308

Slade Steel, who’d had his previous Naas win boosted by the runner-up that day King Of Kingsfield in the Grade 1 Royal Bond, took a steadily-run Grade 2 novice in workmanlike fashion but if there was a potential top-notcher on show on the day it was surely Indiana Dream in the beginners chase. He’d looked something of a long-term project when winning a bumper in France on his debut in 2022, possessing far more size and scope than his rivals that day and grinding out a win, but he’d looked much sharper and potentially smart when giving a 16lb beating to the now Timeform 133-rated An Mhi on his hurdling debut at Punchestown back in January.

Having his first run since and sent straight over fences, his jumping wasn’t without blemish – he made a howler at the middle fence in the home straight on the first circuit – but what caught my eye was just how easily he was travelling approaching the last as then-leader and 139 rated Saint Felicien dropped away from where Indiana Dream sprinted away as if he’d just joined in.

That was one of those moments when you know instinctively you’ve seen something very special and though Indiana Dream posted just a 136 timefigure, his closing sectionals when compared to the smart Embittered who won over the same trip half an hour earlier suggest he’s worth a ballpark 160 figure. That’s Festival level winning standard and the only other novice to have run to that level this season over fences is his equally exciting stable-companion Gaelic Warrior.

There was no jumps racing domestically on Sunday but there was a decent card at Cork where No Time To Wait (125 timefigure) was the latest off the Gordon Elliott novice hurdler production line in looking a good prospect. The action of the day, however, was over fences where Arkle winner El Fabiolo made his reappearance in a Bar One Hilly Way Chase Willie Mullins has made his own in recent years in the same way Aidan O’Brien has dominated numerous similar events on the Flat.

Despite conceding upwards of 7lb to some very smart rivals, there was never any stage at which it looked as if El Fabiolo would relinquish his unbeaten record over fences and a 163 timefigure after a slight error at the last was a more than satisfactory comeback that saw him retain his position at the head of the Champion Chase betting.

The earlier Grade 2 mares novice chase went the way of Silent Approach who downed some much better fancied rivals under a cute front-running ride from Danny Mullins. Her overall timefigure was only 119 but her late sectionals compared well with those of El Fabiolo and on the basis of those I could see her ending up reaching 140 over fences before too long.