Timefigure analysis of Desert Crown's Cazoo Derby victory and Tuesday's Oaks

By Graeme North

Horse Racing

Wed June 08, 2022 · 2y ago

Graeme North was as visually impressed as anyone with Desert Crown in the Cazoo Derby, but says he was nothing more than an average winner on the clock.

Runners as early as the second race on Oaks Day giving the far rail a wide berth in search of better ground, the field for the opening race at Epsom on Derby Day being dispatched while one of the riders was still in shock after being head-butted in the face, fireworks before the Derby and then the Derby itself on Racing TV sharing a split screen with a maiden at Listowel all combined to suggest to me that more than one vote of confidence concerning matters of chaotic governance was needed on Monday.

The sport needs to understand that not messing up on the big occasions is the least required to maintain its current level of support, let alone build on it, and the weekend’s car-crash fare wasn’t a good look.

Fortunately, the Derby, like the Oaks sponsored by Cazoo, lived up to the hype, at least as I saw it, though not everyone agreed with a fair amount of negativity afterwards on social media seemingly stemming from the proximity of stable-mates Hoo Ya Mal and Masekela as indicators that Desert Crown hadn’t beaten much.

On the clock, which is the purpose of this column after all, Desert Crown’s 119 timefigure ranks towards the bottom end of Derby-winning timefigures this century (Stoute’s most recent winner before Desert Crown, Workforce, heads that particular list at 134) and his winning time of 2.36.38 is also one of the slower recent renewals on ground Timeform have returned as good.

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None of this is to imply that Desert Crown is an inferior or substandard Derby winner, however, as had things panned out differently for him (and for the third horse, Westover, as well while we are at it) the result would have looked a lot different. The pace set by Changingoftheguard (in as a pacemaker, seemingly) was a sound one, going through the first uphill half-mile in 56.73 seconds according to the data returned by Course Track, before covering the next four furlongs in 52.61 seconds.

Changingoftheguard managed to hang on in front for nearly another quarter mile, but no sooner had he been joined by West Wind Blows, Desert Crown, who had been moving ominously well for a long way, swept past the pair of them with a devastating turn of foot.

Given just one crack of the whip, he pulled five lengths clear at least before the runner-up and third closed the gap late on as Richard Kingscote took things easily in front. Given Desert Crown looked to be a fair bit further ahead of Hoo Ya Mal at the furlong pole than he was at the two-furlong marker, it’s bizarre that Course Track have Hoo Ya Mal running that furlong faster, though I think we all agree that Westover ran the fastest final furlong.

Hoo Ya Mal’s improved effort at a mile and a half wasn’t at all surprising given his dam stayed the trip and is by Montjeu, who was responsible for four Derby winners between 2005 and 2012, while Masekela ran Native Trail to a short head last year and would likely have run somewhere near his Derby level in the Dante had he not been withdrawn. Perhaps with a clearer run, Westover would have finished three or four lengths ahead of Hoo Y Mal.

Even so, Desert Crown could conceivably have beaten that rival by eight or nine lengths had his rider so desired, and he looks one of the most exciting Derby winners for years. Regular readers will know that I had been lukewarm about Stone Age beforehand, but it would be wrong to assume his run is an accurate reflection of either his ability or his stamina as to me he seemed all at sea on the track.

Westover’s effort incidentally reflects credit on Cash who nearly caught him after coming from a long way back in the bet365 Classic Trial at Sandown. Cash is entered in the Irish Derby, reportedly Westover’s next target, but his other long-range entries suggest his connections don’t really see him as a mile-and-a-half horse.

If the Derby prompted some discussion as to the relative merits of Desert Crown and Westover, Emily Upjohn’s narrow defeat by Tuesday in the Oaks the preceding day provoked even more after the runner-up had propped at the start and had to come widest of all. I’m inclined to agree with her rider Frankie Dettori that Emily Upjohn was unlucky, though the race wasn’t lost at the start as some observers have made out but early in the straight where Dettori could be seen cruising up to the leaders closest to the stand rail only to sit and wait while Ryan Moore, hidden from Dettori’s view on the inside, made his move.

That hesitation, if that’s the right word, cost Emily Upjohn the race, as Tuesday showed an electric turn of foot to pass nearly all the field and burst a couple of lengths clear, running that third-last furlong in 10.43 seconds according to Course Track compared to Emily Upjohn’s 10.78. Emily Upjohn ran each of the last two furlongs quicker than Tuesday according to the same source, the penultimate furlong 0.41 seconds quicker and the last furlong 0.19 seconds faster that contributed to a last three-furlong time 0.23 seconds faster than Tuesday posted (slightly faster than Timeform recorded) and getting on for a second faster than Nashwa back in third managed.

Both the first two emerge with 9lb sectional upgrades (taken from the path at the top of the straight) on the back of 109 timefigures, testament to the fact the race wasn’t run at a strong gallop. On the face of it, there’s little between them but concentrating on the figures for the last two furlongs suggests that Emily Upjohn really ought to have won by a length or more, which seems to me what would likely have happened had Dettori made his effort half a furlong or so sooner than he did.

In any event, the first two home can be considered around 5lb better than the result suggests relative to the rest of the field, among whom Nashwa also seemed to me the recipient of a reactive rather than proactive ride. Hopefully the front pair will meet again, and though much has been made of Tuesday just turning three, and so being open potentially to the bigger progression of the pair, that argument seems not to take into account the speed and precocity that has enabled her to take in two Guineas, whereas Emily Upjohn didn’t make her debut until November and hasn’t run at less than nine and a half furlongs.

Earlier on Oaks Day, Baaeed’s older brother Hukum made a breakthrough at Group 1 level in the Dahlbury Coronation Cup but might not run again after requiring surgery after picking up an injury at Epsom. A 110 timefigure is his best since returning a 112 when fifth behind Galileo Chrome in the 2020 St Leger, more a reflection that he’s spent most of his time since running in steadily-run races than any shortcomings in his merit, and a four-and-a-half length winning margin is the biggest in the race since Postponed in 2016.

The Coronation was more strongly-run through the initial stages than the Oaks with 2021 winner Pyledriver taking the field through the first half-mile in 57.91 seconds according to Course Track, almost a second quicker than leader Thoughts of June went through the same distance in the Oaks. Hukum’s finishing Course Track sectional was much slower than Tuesdays’s (33.82 compared to 32.53) and with a nominal 2lb upgrade taking his overall timefigure figure to just 112, it’s hard not to escape the conclusion that most of his opponents weren’t at their best on the day.

The French Derby, the Qatar Prix du Jockey Club, took place at Chantilly on Sunday and following a couple of years when the prize had gone abroad it stayed at home with Vadeni providing Jean-Claude Rouget with his fourth winner of the race since 2016.

Winning distances in excess of three lengths are very unusual in France’s premier Classic and Vadeni’s five-length winning margin is the largest since Holding Court scored by five and a half back in 2000 when the race was still run over a mile and a half.

A five-length win over El Bodegon with Modern Games hanging on for third, despite a very slow final 600m after being gunned to the front from his wide draw on ground probably softer than ideal, looks good form on the face of it, but with stalls one and two responsible for the first two home, and those drawn wide and held up ending up with no chance as the race developed, I’d be slightly wary of thinking he’s as far ahead of those behind him as the result implies.

Indeed, three of those in the ruck behind Vadeni, notably fourth-placed Al Hakeem and fifth-placed Onesto, according to the sectionals available on France Galop, ran the last 600m faster than the winner, but were severely compromised by their track position.

Earlier in the day Vadeni’s colours had also been carried to victory in the Prix de Royaumont by Baiykara.

The race might have been only a Group 3 for fillies and the winner might have been breaking her maiden at the third attempt, but considering how much she sweated up and pulled hard on the wide outside without any cover, a four-length winning margin and a final 600m sectional of 36.69 (Vadeni posted 35.86) over a 300m longer trip than the Prix du Jockey Club, isn’t too shabby, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her show up well in the big autumn races for fillies.

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