Timefigure analysis including Babouche in Group 1 Keeneland Phoenix Stakes

With relatively little quality racing to analyse from the past week, a consequential fallout of the Festival-focused calendar the domestic Flat season is increasingly concentrated around - combined with the pull of Deauville across the Channel - this week’s column is a little shorter than usual and might have been even shorter still but for the Keeneland Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh which is the first Group 1 race of the season for two-year-olds.

Won last year by Bucanero Fuerte and the year before that by a full brother (Little Big Bear) to this year’s runner-up Whistlejacket, the latest renewal went to the unbeaten filly Babouche whose winning time of 1m 09.33 seconds was not only the fastest in the race this century (and just the second time in the same time period it has come in at under 1m 10.00 seconds) but was also faster than all but two of the 375 six-furlong winners aged three or older since 2000 (Invincible Spirit stopped the clock at 1m 08.10 seconds in the Boland Stakes in 2001, while the second fastest time was also set on this year’s Phoenix card by Givemethebeatboys in the Phoenix Sprint).

Race record times by themselves are usually more an indication of very fast underfoot conditions than anything more meritorious but not where Babouche is concerned – her winning timefigure of 112 was the joint best (along with Little Big Bear) in the race since Timeform began returning timefigures from Ireland in 2015 for all her winning distance was nowhere near the seven lengths he came clear by.

Babouche is the fourth filly to win the race this century after Damson in 2004, Saoirse Abu in 2007 and La Collina in 2017 and her win (after tracking the pace and quickening past Whistlejacket to lead over a furlong out) adds further weight to the view that the 2024 class of juvenile fillies is quite a deep one.

There was nothing in the sectional times or upgrades to suggest the result was anything other than what it looked on paper with the pace a strong one from the outset and Babouche’s last furlong (according to RaceIQ) the slowest of the four six-furlong winners on the day and the only one also where the last two furlongs combined exceeded 23 seconds.

Whistlejacket improved his form again back on faster ground after adopting his usual front-running role and given his size and length would hardly surprise if he continued to eke out further progress, while Arizona Blaze, though clearly useful, is starting to look no better than a useful early juvenile.

Shadow Army, for all he might have been distracted by cheekpieces, is another whose performance suggests Prix Robert-Papin winner Arabie had had to do more when beating subsequent Prix du Cabourg winner Daylight previously in the Prix du Bois than he had in that race.

Babouche’s stable last won the Phoenix Stakes in 2019 with subsequent Irish 2000 Guineas winner Siskin but he was something of an outlier among recent winners, most of whom have turned out to be sprinters. The Cheveley Park Stakes seems likely to be up next for Babouche and her prospects of staying further next year might be clearer after that.

Bay on the radar

Two of the three other two-year-old races at the Curragh on Saturday also had a significant element of interest, at least after the result if not necessarily before. The opening maiden which has been won by subsequent Group winners Diego Velazguez, Al Riffa and Thunder Moon in three of the four preceding seasons, the last two of them at Group 1 level, went to the clear form-pick Delacroix, as much as a horse can be a clear form-pick when the majority of its rivals are newcomers, but in a slowly-run race where the finishing speed was 109% from three furlongs out, according to Timeform, and a much faster 110.7% from a furlong closer, according to RaceIQ, the horse with the bigger potential going forward might be the winner’s stable-companion and runner-up Acapulco Bay, who was a length quicker over the last two furlongs and is consequently worthy of a 7lb bigger upgrade given his finishing speed.

Like the winner by Dubawi, Acapulco Bay’s dam won over 14 furlongs in France and is a sister to the Ribblesdale winner Magic Wand and closely related to the Irish Oaks Chicquita, so, at least right now, he falls into the ‘could be anything’ category.

The second race looked full of long-range prospects and I’d have been a bit more enthusiastic about fourth-placed newcomer Commanche Brave, who ran not only the second furlong fastest of all but also the fourth and fifth before being run off the podium, if only his immediate pedigree had more winners and less temperament in it.

The third race, a fillies maiden over seven furlongs, not only produced a good timefigure (86) but also significant upgrades for the first two home who pulled five lengths clear. Runner-up Ballet Slippers (another by Dubawi and the first foal of the 128-rated Irish Champion winner Magical) had already had the benefit of previous racecourse experience, so the winner Falling Snow, who is by Justify out of the almost as talented 124-rated dual 1000 Guineas winner Winter, will surely have all the top two-year-old fillies race on her horizon after this encouraging debut, for all she had seen a racecourse once before in a barrier trial. Despite the stronger earlier pace, Falling Snow’s last two-furlong time was only a length slower than opening winner Delacroix, and the first two come in at just short of 100 on overall timeratings.

Beaten pair worth monitoring

Staying with the two-year-olds for now and moving across to Newmarket, the latest renewal of the Sweet Solera took place and if last year’s running is anything to go by it’s a race worth paying close attention to as it was won then by the subsequent Irish 1000 Guineas winner Fallen Angel from the Sandringham winner Soprano. This year’s winner Lake Victoria (by Frankel out of the 126-rated Commonwealth Cup winner Quiet Reflection) had won her only previous start, a maiden at Cork whose form had been franked handsomely by another good prospect in Red Letter, and she followed up without too much fuss under one-time Ballydoyle employee Sean Levey, but the runner-up Mountain Breeze probably wasn’t helped by the relatively steady pace (winning timefigure 87) trying a trip that should have suited her judged on her previous efforts and the third home Elsie’s Ruan (by Ulysses) is another who would have preferred a stronger pace and stayed on determinedly enough to think she’ll take her form up another notch when stepped up to a mile.

If time comparisons are your thing, then it might be worth paying close attention to the form of the opening newcomers event won by Tabiti who ran the seven-furlong distance just a tenth of a second slower than Lake Victoria and also ran a faster final furlong.

Best of the rest

Back again to Ireland and earlier in the week three winning juveniles had posted timefigures of 90 headed by January who returned 95 in the Listed Churchill Stakes at Tipperary. Other renewals might have had stronger depth, but January (another Aidan O’Brien youngster) soon had matters in hand when asked, relishing the longest trip that she's encountered and sure to be at least if not more effective at a mile.

Over at Leopardstown, Hill Road, one of three National Stakes entries in the field and out of a half-sister to a Breeders’ Cup Mile winner, recorded a smart 90 when winning the opening maiden over the extended seven furlongs, running each of the last two furlongs fastest of all and looking a pattern-race performer in the making. Form-pick Heavens Gate (who ended up being withdrawn from the Phoenix Stakes later in the week apparently because she hadn’t eaten up) also posted a 90 when landing a very valuable sales race at Naas so giving the form of the Albany won by Fairy Godmother another boost and indirectly the Sweert Solera given she had finished behind Mountain Breeze in the Duchess Of Cambridge.

None of the four pattern races run in Britain or Ireland last week that I’ve not mentioned yet returned outstanding timefigures and indeed, only two of them, the Ballyroan Stakes won by Crystal Black and the Phoenix Sprint won by the aforementioned Givemethebeatboys, managed to scrape above 100 with Crystal Black returning 104 (admittedly quite a good figure by historical comparison) and Givemethebeatboys 102.

Anmaat won the Rose of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock in an ordinary 98 while Mutasarref, a stable-companion of Babouche, put his smart turn of foot to good use in a steadily-run Desmond Stakes where the winning timefigure was just 64.

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