Timefigure analysis from Graeme North on the two-year-old races at Royal Ascot

By Graeme North

Horse Racing

Tue June 11, 2024 · 5M ago

Our timefigure guru Graeme North focuses on the two-year-old scene ahead of Royal Ascot and believes the Irish could dominate.

With no Classics to get stuck into this week – unless you count (and I don’t) the newly-inaugurated Irish Stallion Farms EBF Gowran Classic which took place at Gowran Park last Monday – I’ll concentrate this week on the two-year-old scene ahead of the upcoming Royal Ascot bonanza which starts next Tuesday and for which two-year-olds of all persuasions are still throwing their hats into the ring even at this very late stage.

I wrote in my last French-centric Sunday Sporting Life column North On Sunday, a round-up for those unaware of weekly events on the Flat in France and which next Sunday will include a review of the important meeting at ParisLongchamp just gone as well as a preview of the Prix de Diane, the French Oaks, that while the British-trained juveniles are currently a level above those that have been seen out so far in France, they themselves seem a level below those who have already been out in Ireland not unlike the current state of play over jumps (and by the sounds of it the leading Irish jumps trainers will be well represented at Royal Ascot too).

A dive into the numbers neatly illustrates the increasing dominance Irish juveniles are having in the division. Since 2000 – and I’ve included the Heath meeting in these statistics for all it didn’t become part of the Royal meeting until 2002 – there have been one hundred and thirty-eight two-year-old contests at Royal Ascot of which thirty-one have gone to Ireland at a strike rate of just over 22%. In six of those years Irish-trained juveniles have drawn a blank but since the last time that happened in 2018 Irish-trained juveniles has struck at almost 37% and last season, for the first time this century, not only did they win four contests for the first time, but the home team (also for the first time) had to be satisfied with one solitary win.

Though the transatlantic challenge looks sure to be whittled down this year with Wesley Ward reportedly scaling back his numbers, the evidence of the clock suggests the home team ought to be prepared for more of the same this year. In the last five years that racing has continued interrupted since the New Year (I’ve ignored Covid-hit 2020) the Irish had just one of the top ten juveniles on the clock before June 10th in 2019, two of the top eight in 2021, two of the top thirteen in 2022 and still only three of the top twelve in their record-breaking season last year. This year, somewhat ominously, five of the top six juveniles on time are trained in Ireland including all the top four and it’s far from an improbability that the home-trained juveniles will draw a complete blank.

In my last Watch And Learn column I wrote that the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom looked a particularly weak renewal this year, going the way of other once significant early-season two-year-old contests such as the Lily Agnes at Chester that are very much an end in themselves these days rather than a springboard to better things, and the same accusation can largely be railed against the conditions events at Beverley, the Hilary Needler and the bet365 Two Year Old Trophy that took place over the weekend and which for the first time this century, in another illustration the standard of domestic two-year-olds seen out this season hasn’t been high, both went to youngsters making their debuts.

The Hilary Needler was the first of the pair to be run and went to a newcomer, Perfect Part, for the first time since Chica La Habana in 2017 and the fourth time in all since 2000. An unusually large field for a race of this kind as this was usually adds up to a lack of quality across the contestants, and an 83 timefigure is unexceptional by race standards for all the win came as no surprise to Brian Ellison who had already saddled two winning debutants this year including the Marygate eyecatcher Jayvee. That said her winning time was getting on for half a second (over three lengths) faster than the Two Year Old Trophy winner Shareholder (replay below) and included a much faster final furlong according to the Course Track sectionals after a very similar first three furlongs. History suggests she’s up against it should she have a crack at the Queen Mary. Neither of the two other debutant winners since 2000 who won the Hilary Needler and ran in the Queen Mary, Roxan and Chica La Habana distinguished themselves at Ascot, both trailing home well behind, but the former ended her two-year-old career with second spot in the listed Firth of Clyde at Ayr while the other winning Needler newcomer who didn’t take in Ascot, Freefourracing, ended up winning the Prestige Stakes at Goodwood.

In contrast to Perfect Part, who had been bought privately at the Goffs Breeze Ups for just £10,000 despite a breeze that was faster than sixty per cent of the catalogue, Shareholder had been purchased for an arm and a leg at the Arquan Breeze Up Sale by Wathnan Racing where he was the seventh highest-priced lot. A 73 timefigure mindful of that slow final furlong isn’t much to shout about but the three who followed him home had all won their previous races albeit none of them in a fast time and he could hardly have looked any greener after a slow start. Connections will take great heart from the similarities he shares with the 2016 winner Prince Of Lir; he also won this race on his debut having been a very expensive Breeze Up purchase and went on to win the Norfolk Stakes albeit disappointing in every run afterwards.

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The timefigures achieved by Perfect Part and Shareholder are a long way short of those posted by the best in the division which is headed as it has been for the last month or so by Whistlejacket whose 106 in the listed Gain First Flier Stakes remains 11lb clear of the 96 posted by the winning Group 3 filly Fairy Godmother and Group 3 runner-up Sparkling Sea. A filly who didn’t run to that bare level on her debut (replay below) at Leopardstown last week but comes in just shy of 100 once sectional upgrades are factored in is Bedtime Story.

She could hardly be better bred being by the outstanding Frankel out of the almost equally outstanding sprinting mare Mecca’s Angel who twice won the Nunthorpe, and though she took a while to get the hang of things she ultimately got the better of her stable-companion Giselle (also by Frankel) cosily enough in a race that didn’t develop until the straight with little more than two furlongs to run. With that observation in mind, and Bedtime Story not really getting the hang of things until inside the final furlong, her 19lb upgrade is almost certainly a conservative one and worth more like 26lb if greater weight is placed on her final furlong time. Ascot might come too soon for her, but she’s bred to be smart and certainly looked it here. Another Aidan O’Brien juvenile who looked useful last week (and is also bred to be, naturally, being a full brother to the Prix Morny and Middle Park winner Blackbeard) is Tunbridge Wells who left his promising debut well behind when winning a minor event at the Curragh impressively. A 17lb upgrade took his 83 bare timefigure rating into three figures and if he doesn’t run at Ascot the Group 2 Railway Stakes looks a natural target form him, a race his trainer won eleven times between 1997 and 2010 but has oddly only won twice since.

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Moving away from the two-year-olds, it was a lightweight week both in Britain and Ireland at the highest level not only in terms of number of elite events with just a pair of Betfred-sponsored Group 3 events at Haydock, the Lester Piggott Stakes and the John of Gaunt, and half a dozen listed races spread equally across both nations but on the clock too with none of those eight races coming in higher than 107 on bare timefigures.

That 107 was posted by Believing in the opening Achilles Stakes and is 4lb slower than the career-best she posted when a 66/1-third in last season’s Betfair Sprint Cup. Of all the racecourses on the Flat in Britain, Haydock along with Carlisle is the least easy to deal with two different home straights, times that often betray the official going descriptions and some seemingly questionable rail movements particularly in races that take in the bends beyond the winning posts.

Saturday’s card took place in the face of a strong headwind, not as strong as the 40mph the owners of the beaten favourite Live In The Dream were blaming but strong nonetheless. Those conditions wouldn’t be the ones to bring out the best in such as speedster as him, or indeed Democracy Dilemma or Tees Spirit, and the ground for the Achilles was almost certainly a fair bit slower than the following races as the surface dried out after overnight rain, so while there’s some uncertainty over exactly what Believing achieved it wasn’t a surprise to see her backed for the King’s Stand.

Skysail and Finn’s Charm posted the best timefigures of the week in handicaps with 107 and 105 respectively, the former looking an improved performer after a wind operation and the latter also posting a personal best though he wouldn’t be one to back to reproduce it.

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