Timefigure analysis from Graeme North on the Cheltenham Festival

So that’s the Cheltenham Festival over for another year and while in some ways it followed the anticipated script – domination from Willie Mullins, declining crowd numbers as well as interest on first two days in particular, numerous gambles on the runners in green and gold. In others it didn’t with Nicky Henderson little more than an observer from the sidelines so ceding his usual position as leading domestic trainer to Dan Skelton who’d started the week with a measly £6,000 fine over the George Gently case.

Unusually too, though it perhaps shouldn’t have been too much of a surprise to any form student with an equally keen interest in the skies above them, the meeting started on ground officially described as soft (heavy in places), which was changed to heavy (soft in places) after race two, much to the chagrin of heavy ground backers at 33/1.

Coming on the back of a wet and stormy autumn, pretty much every day in 2024 has been depressingly cloud heavy to the extent that low sun, until this season a regular scourge of winter jumps meetings, has rivalled Constitution Hill for infrequent public appearances. With little or no wind to speak of either in the weeks preceding the Festival, it’s hardly a surprise the course lost its battle to dry out to the extent that one of the races, the Cross Country Chase, admittedly not everyone’s favourite, had to be abandoned.

Willie Mullins might have saddled five of the eleven runners in the opening Sky Bet Supreme but Henry de Bromhead struck first blow for the Irish with Slade Steel who was running here only to avoid another clash with Mullins’ crack novice Ballyburn who’d beaten him by seven lengths in the hottest novice race of the season, the Brave Inca, at the Dublin Racing Festival.

The Supreme provided a stark early indicator of the deep state of the ground with Slade Steel’s winning time being almost six seconds slower than the previous slowest Supreme this century, a pattern repeated throughout the rest of the day (and to a lesser extent throughout the rest of the meeting) with the Ultima, Champion Hurdle and Boodles all comparatively very slow as well.

Slade Steel’s 145 timefigure was the slowest by some way in the race since Timeform started returning timefigures in 2015 but it was on a par with what he’d managed behind Ballyburn and he showed great battling qualities to get back after being headed by Mystical Power jumping the final flight. Mullins might consider this one that got away, however, as according to Course Track sectionals Mystical Power, who was delivered from further back in a race concluded at a 103.3% finishing speed, was the only horse on the first two days on the Old Couse to run the last half mile faster than the winner, 0.27 seconds by their calculation in this instance which isn’t too far off the length and a half he was beaten.

Whether Constitution Hill’s health-enforced absence from the Unibet Champion Hurdle will result in the increasingly risk-averse Henderson running him more often in future when he’s fit and well remains to be seen – and the trainer set out to appease his critics in an end-of-season round up with mention of the spring Festivals at Aintree and Punchestown as likely destinations for his missing stable stars – but in his absence State Man was made to work harder than expected by Irish Point.

The Champion wasn’t strongly run - the finishing speed was 105.6% and the winning timefigure was the same as the Supreme, well below State Man’s best – and probably reflects improvement from Irish Point in the circumstances for all the result taken overall looks muddling.

Having had the first five in the Supreme and the first two in the Champion, the Irish proceeded to saddle the first four in the Mares’ Hurdle and the first five in the Boodles.

Lossiemouth produced a career best 145 timefigure in the Mares’ with a 58.86 final half mile which was faster than Slade Steel managed, but the Boodles turned into something of a war of attrition with the patently well-handicapped Lark In The Mornin, twice withdrawn ahead of the Festival in Ireland supposedly because of heavy ground as well as once for being ‘off his feed’, finding neither his handicap mark (122) nor much more controversially underfoot conditions a hindrance as he ran out an authoritative winner despite the two-length margin.

Gaelic Warrior was the star performer over fences on the opening day, posting a career-best 165 timefigure in the Arkle, helped to a degree by his proven stamina but ostensibly just far too good for what were arguably a substandard set of rivals as two of his three previous runs over fences had suggested he would be.

Gaelic Warrior might have won at three miles over hurdles, but National Hunt Challenge Cup winner Corbetts Cross is surely a better Gold Cup prospect and dismissed slowboat Embassy Gardens with ease in a typically steadily-run renewal (finishing speed 105.2%) of what is developing into something of a borefest now its distance has been reduced and the conditions changed.

Chianti Classico salvaged some pride for the home team in the Ultima, him and runner-up Twig battling on too well for Meetingofthewaters who hit even money turning for home in his bid to give Mullins a first handicap chase win at the Festival.

Ballyburn lives up the hype

The Irish raiders carried on where they left off on Tuesday by saddling the first five in the Gallagher Novice Hurdle with Ballyburn improving even on the huge 154 timefigure he posted in the Brave Inca at Leopardstown last month by registering a 157. Recent winners such as Samcro and Bob Olinger who have surpassed that figure didn’t progress quite as seemed likely at the time, but Ballyburn looks potentially right out of the top drawer.

His winning time followed the theme of the first day in that it was the slowest in the race this century for all conditions weren’t quite as slow as they had been on Tuesday. The contentiously-handicapped (or fairly handicapped depending upon your point of view) Langer Dan, who had been dropped to the same mark as when winning the race the previous year despite some fairly predictable no-shows in-between, took the Coral Cup in a time around 18 seconds slower than he had in 2023, winning more easily than he had that day in a weakened renewal that developed into something of a sprint finish with the finishing speed an unusually high 106.4%.

Skelton also took one of the three chases (the only other race was the Champion Bumper which the Irish dominated as usual but was won in a historically modest 98 timefigure by Willie Mullins 100th Festival winner Jasmin De Vaux) with another horse nicely accommodated by the handicapper, Unexpected Party, whose win in a decent 141 timefigure came in the only race on the card not run in the slowest time this century.

The feature Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase lost much of its interest with the departure of El Fabiolo and the non-appearance of Jonbon but full credit to Captain Guinness for taking advantage in a race that turned into something of a slog (finishing speed 97.1%) with a 156 finishing speed at the lower end of the races’ historical spectrum, a remark that can also be levelled at Fact To File who put his speed at shorter distances to good use at the end of a steadily-run Brown Advisory where the finishing speed was 108.1% and the winning timefigure just 135. He’s already run a 150 and will prove far better than that in time anyway.

Mullins no-show but as Skelton doubles up again

Conditions weren’t quite so slow on the New Course, at least on Thursday when Mullins couldn’t muster a horse in the first three let alone a winner, but though the domestic challenge emerged with five winners the Irish ended up not only saddling the first seven home in a race - the Stayers’ Hurdle - for the second day running but also landed an almighty gamble with Inothewayurthinkin in the concluding Kim Muir.

Aided by the recent rainfall, Teahupoo rewarded Gordon Elliott’s eggs-in-one-basket strategy of keeping him fresh for the Festival, not needing to be at his 159 clocked best to see off dual previous winner Flooring Porter and a ragbag of other rivals in 149 with the best of the home contingent Dashel Drasher coming home in eighth place.

Dashel Drasher’s trained Jeremy Scott gained handsome recompense later in the Dawn Run Mares’ Novice Hurdle, however, with Golden Ace who outsprinted her rivals in the fastest finish of the week (54.17 last half mile according to Course Track and 111.2% finishing speed) though whether she’d have beaten the very unfortunate Dysart Enos who’d thrashed her in the listed Mares bumper at Aintree last year but had been pulled out lame on Thursday morning must be open to serious doubt.

Grey Dawning led home a one-two-three for the home challenge in the opening Turners Novice Chase bizarrely lacking credible Irish opposition, repeating the 161 timefigure he’d posted at Warwick on his previous start despite giving his fences a lot of air. Skelton doubled up for the second day in succession in the Ryanair with Protektorat who fared easily the best of those rerouted to avoid Galopin Des Champs in the Gold Cup, seeing it out too strongly for the reigning champion Envoi Allen in a 160 timefigure which wasn’t once his limit (168 his best) but might be nowadays.

Shakem Up’arry won the Plate in a 135 timefigure despite running the final half mile slower than four of the horses who finished behind him (In Excelis Deo ran that section fastest according to Course Track) while the obviously thrown-in Inothewayurthinkin’s Kim Muir win was gained as readily as might have been expected of a horse third to Gaelic Warrior and Il Etait Temps over two miles five furlongs at Christmas despite an unexceptional timefigure (126).

Champs defends crown but division gets interesting

Conditions slowed markedly on the Friday turning the ground heavy again and the day picked up where the previous one had left off with the Irish winning the first race, the JCB Triumph Hurdle, which wasn’t unexpected given they had most of the favoured runners in the absence of ante-post ‘good thing’ Sir Gino.

Kargese was the horse that had emerged best of their raiding party at the Dublin Racing Festival but the third that day on his first run in Ireland, Majborough, ended up turning the tables in conditions more akin to those he had faced at Auteuil when looking a strong stayer in making a taking winning debut. A 144 timefigure is historically a good one for a Triumph winner and won’t be a walkover for Sir Gino should they clash later this season.

Sky Bet Ebor winner Abursde showed that a hard campaign – international in his case, too, having taken in the Melbourne Cup – is no obstacle to Cheltenham Festival triumph with a well-judged success from off a slow pace (finishing speed 108.9%) in the County Hurdle, denying Dan Skelton another win in the race while becoming the third horse from the Brave Inca to score at the Festival.

Stellar Story who’d looked exposed in some of the better Irish novice hurdles took the Albert Bartlett in a 119 timefigure so denying Ben Pauling a second win of the week after his The Jukebox Man had looked the winner for all but the last few strides and his trainer Elliott followed up with his second winner of the day on what wasn’t entirely a good week for him in the handicaps (just three of his 31 runners finished in the first three and none at all over fences, continuing a worrying pattern in that discipline since 2022 when just one of his 32 runners has been placed) with concluding winner Better Days Ahead in the Martin Pipe.

Elliott’s Gerri Colombe went close in the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup, running a career best 172 timefigure and proving those that had him at 7/4 when Galopin Des Champs was 6/4 at Leopardstown weren’t far off the mark. Ultimately, though, he found that horse who won the race in 2023 and held a 7lb advantage on the clock before the race, three-and-a-half lengths too good but if nothing else it raises the possibility of a more interesting rematch than in many divisions.

That could either be at Aintree or Punchestown given Fastorslow, the only horse to have beaten Galopin Des Champs twice, albeit not in out-and-out run races, was still going well enough when unseating while Shishkin who is the only chaser in training at around the Gold Cup trip to have run a faster timefigure than the Gold Cup winner, will be fresher for a first clash than he otherwise would have been having effectively run just twice this season. That’s always assuming, of course, Henderson really fancies the clash having taken only two chasers to Punchestown’s spring Festival since 2016.

There’s not enough time here to debate Julie Harrington’s ambition expressed this week for fast-tracked greater competitiveness within domestic jumps, but addressing the farcical staging of five handicap chases within six days over three miles five furlongs or more as happened in Cheltenham week might be a very good place to start.

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