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Timefigure analysis following Cheveley Park and Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket

By Graeme North

11:54 · TUE October 01, 2024

Graeme North analyses last week's action from a timefigure perspective and he's not convinced by Lake Victoria's 1000 Guineas claims.

Al Nayyir can give Kyprios a race

Last week was an unusual one on the Flat in Britain and Ireland with at least one Listed or Group race every day so with plenty to get through I’ll dive straight into the action.

Monday’s Listed action came at Fairyhouse where Rebel Diamond took the Blenheim Stakes over six furlongs. Amy Murphy’s Itsatenfromlen, who’d won both his races in France showing a useful level of form, and Archie Watson’s Vingegaard provided some British interest but the finish ended up being a domestic affair with the winner, who was completing a hat-trick after wins at Naas and Cork, getting the better of One Smack Mac who’d won a maiden at Naas on his only start back in May.

The race was one of three over the distance on the day, yet the winning time was barely any faster than the 60-rated handicapper who won the last managed so whether this form stands up (winning timefigure just 84) remains to be seen. Itsatenfromlen ran well, more than confirming his French form, but Vingegaard ran well below form in yet another knock to the form of the Sirenia at Kempton won by Gimcrack third Symbol Of Strength.

Tuesday’s Listed action came from Listowel where Jessica Harrington’s Curvature won the five-furlong Listowel Stakes readily in first-time cheekpieces but with no timefigures available from Listowel because of inaccurate and insufficient historical data, a combination that has prevented Timeform from returning timefigures from a good number of Irish racecourse sadly, notably Thurles over jumps where several Graded races are held, I’ll move onto Goodwood on Wednesday where Novus won the Listed Foundation Stakes over almost a mile and a quarter.

Botanical brought the best form to the table having finished second off a mark of 107 in the strongly-run John Smith’s Cup at York in July but after 10 weeks off he couldn’t quite get the better of course specialist Novus who was running in a first-time tongue strap and who had form nearly as good besides a previous course win on heavy ground. Unsurprisingly, and despite pulling seven lengths clear at the end of a steadily-run race, the winning timefigure wasn’t anything special, translating into an ordinary 89 with no sectional upgrades worth talking about.

The first Group action of the week came on Thursday at Newmarket which hosted a three-day meeting culminating in a couple of significant two-year-races, the Middle Park Stakes and the Cheveley Park Stakes, as well as the first leg of the ‘Autumn Double’, the Cambridgeshire.

The Waco Kid wins under Oisin Murphy

The first-day Group feature, the Tattersalls Stakes (formerly the Somerville Tattersall), is a race that often goes to a promising sort but is rarely won by anything that goes on to be top class and the latest renewal looks an underwhelming renewal in all honesty with its winner The Waco Kid, the least favoured in the betting other than the two complete outsiders, already having had five races and not having finished closer than fourth in his two previous attempts in Group company.

One of those races was the Acomb Stakes, however, a race that continues to look strong form, where he was fourth, albeit a fair distance behind The Lion In Winter, but whether this effort represents the massive improvement it appears on paper remains to be seen given his rider Oisin Murphy was able to get him to dictate on the stand rail whereas the runner-up, Wathnan’s Diego Ventura, was held up some way off the pace and raced widest of all.

Again, the winning timefigure was on the low side, reflecting the tactical nature of the race, just 97, which is in line with the best of his previous efforts. Timeform have Diego Ventura (like the winner by Mehmas) emerging with a slightly bigger sectional upgrade but it didn’t look to me like he was unlucky – after all, the winner was clearing away come the line and ran easily the fastest final furlong.

In contrast, the Jockey Club Rose Bowl won by Al Nayyir was well run and the winner, who romped home by eight lengths, returned a 117 timefigure, the best of the week though no surprise to followers of sectional times who would have noted his storming finish from off an ordinary pace in the Lonsdale where he earned a far bigger upgrade than the winner Vauban. He’ll give Kyprios plenty to think about at the very least if the pair meet in the Long Distance Cup.

David Menuisier’s Sirona kicked off Friday’s Newmarket card with her first win at Listed level since a success for the Johnston stable in Germany as a two-year-old, but her success on ground she handles well (and looked to me good to soft rather than the official soft which resulted in an unsatisfactory number of non runners) in a modest 83 timefigure wasn’t unexpected given she had the best form by some way and had run well in France last time.

The following G3, the Princess Royal Stakes, had just five runners too and also returned another modest timefigure (73) with the 2023 winner Time Lock a standout on form and getting back to winning ways for the first time since in a first-time tongue strap, easily brushing aside the pacesetting Comic Book who had been running with credit in France by five lengths.

The Rockfel Stakes ended up after defections being another five-runner affair and yet another tactical affair which once again saw another favourite win in a modest time, Irish raider Bubbling, who’d finished third in a Listed race at Leopardstown last time, winning readily in an 86 figure with the unbeaten Formal who’d created such a good impression in her first two (unbeaten) starts well beaten in fourth despite having previously having had no issue with soft ground.

A day of underwhelming efforts on the clock in elite events continued in the Joel Stakes after none of the four runners were keen to lead but the winner Prague (73) seemingly took his form to a new level (possible none of his rivals gave their running) and has quickly developed into a smart miler.

At least the remaining Listed race on the card, the Godolphin Stakes, returned a decent timefigure (110) with the winner Burdett Road reverting to the positive tactics that had served him so well the previous season (and might yet see him take his form over hurdles to a new level if revisited again in that discipline). The two-year-old Seaplane was another to record a fast timefigure (106) in his maiden, in so doing being another to pay a compliment to Ralph Beckett’s Calla Lagoon who had beaten him at Ascot earlier in the month despite things not going his way. Over at Dundalk, their sole Listed race, the Diamond Stakes followed the pattern of the day at Newmarket with Bellezza winning a very steadily-run contest in a 54 timefigure to make a breakthrough at this level.

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Game, set and match in the Royal Lodge

He might not have been running in either of the day’s Group 1 races but easily the most interesting juvenile on show at Newmarket on Saturday to my eye on ground that ended up verging on good (in my opinion also) was Wimbledon Hawkeye who had split two potentially top-class colts The Lion In Winter and Ruling Court in the Acomb when he ran a 111 timefigure.

He was only third best in the Royal Lodge market, perhaps because of concerns the official going description was accurate, with the York Convivial Maiden winner and hugely expensive Breeze-Up purchase Angelo Buonarroti and Puppet Master, who’d won a six-runner Galway maiden by four lengths in an 88 timefigure when putting his experience to good use, preferred by the punters.

In the event, neither of the joint-favourites proved a match for Wimbledon Hawkeye whose winning 112 timefigure (no upgrade, none for the placed horses either) is the second best since the race was moved to Newmarket from Ascot and was full confirmation not only of his York effort as well as the standings within their generation of The Lion In Winter and Ruling Court. Wimbledon Hawkeye’s dam didn’t really train on after winning several races as a juvenile so for all his qualities so far he doesn’t interest me just yet for anything in 2025 despite the positive noises connections are making.

The Cheveley Park promised a clash between two unbeaten fillies that had already won a Group 1 contest, Irish raiders Babouche (Phoenix Stakes) and Lake Victoria (Moyglare Stud) but in the event the former, kept to the same trip as her previous top-level win against the colts despite now being back against her own sex, underperformed on ground slower than she had encountered so far after being too keen early on while the latter took her form to a new level despite dropping back in trip.

A 109 timefigure (1lb upgrade, making her overall timerating 110) isn’t anything other than middling for the race, so whether she deserves to be a short-priced favourite on the clock for the 2025 1000 Guineas is arguable, but a three-length defeat of Prix Morny third Daylight who was beaten half that distance by Whistlejacket in the Prix Morny reads well on performance ratings.

Lake Victoria surges clear in the Cheveley Park

Talking of Whistlejacket, he turned up in an uncompetitive Middle Park Stakes as a warm order but was put well and truly in his place by the Gimcrack runner-up Shadow Of Light who was having his first run on softer than good (according to Timeform). The winning time was 0.35 seconds slower than the Cheveley Park, and as Shadow Of Light wasn’t so well placed as Whistlejacket as the race was run he deserves crediting with at least the 5lb upgrade Timeform awarded him, taking his overall timerating to 107, but it seems both he and Whistlejacket (who was clearly below his best on his seventh run of the season) are seen as sprinters and are unlikely to be contesting the Guineas.

The feature handicap, the Cambridgeshire, which was rather spoiled by a clear draw bias towards low numbers, went to Liberty Lane in a 115 timefigure which is a second successive career best after the 110 he ran behind Daysofourlives at Doncaster last time.

Over at the Curragh, timefigures were far less straightforward to return across both Saturday and Sunday with the G2 Beresford Stakes, a race that has been won by Luxembourg and High Definition in recent years, being particularly tricky. The race was at least truly run, helping to take a lot of the educated guesswork out of the equation, and I ended up settling on 107 which is the same as Deepone last year and just 1lb less than Capri posted in 2016.

The two valuable Sales races, the Goffs 500 and the Goffs Million, went to Bolo Neighs and Apples and Bananas respectively in timefigures of 102 and 82. Bolo Neighs, who was gaining his first win and is trained by Ralph Beckett, had the benefit of a solo against the stand rail so might be flattered to some degree while Apples and Bananas was also helped by the run of the race, in his case an easy lead, but he had the best form anyway having landed a Listed race at Deauville on his previous outing.

If anything, Sunday’s card was even trickier from a timefigure perspective than Saturday’s; neither Weld Park Stakes winner Heaven’s Gate nor Renaissance Stakes winner My Mate Alfie achieved much on the clock (80 and 92) but Aftermath posted a smart 101 in winning the seven-furlong maiden while The Euphrates, the only three-year-old in the field, clocked an even better 114 when landing the Irish Cesarewitch.

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