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Timefigure analysis ahead of the Cazoo Oaks and Derby plus Royal Ascot juveniles
Timeform's Graeme North reviews the latest action with his timefigure hat on and he discusses the Epsom Classics as well as some speedy juveniles.
Much like the Lily Agnes at Chester, gone are the days when the Hilary Needler Trophy at Beverley and the bet365 Two Year Old Trophy (still probably better known as the ‘Brian Yeardley’) were significant races in their own right.
But the races are always worth a look with Royal Ascot on the horizon (Prince Of Lir won the Norfolk Stakes in 2016, while Hilary Needler winner Easton Angel had beaten all bar Wesley Ward’s Acapulco in the Queen Mary the previous year).
If either of the latest winners’ head to Ascot, I suspect it will be Chateau that makes the bigger impact despite his 87-winning timefigure coming in under the 88 returned by Star Of Lady M in the Hilary Needler.
A promising third to the useful Remarkable Force at Salisbury on his debut when finding trouble, Chateau again found himself short of room at Beverley but produced a smart burst of speed once out in the open to cut down the front-running Rogue Spirit close home.
Unfortunately, a malfunctioning camera meant Timeform were unable to return sectionals for the race, but the sectionals supplied by Course Track showed that Chateau ran the last furlong around three lengths faster than the runner-up Rogue Spirit and I’d be surprised if this 90,000-guinea Breeze Up purchase isn’t good enough to be thereabouts in the Windsor Castle at least at Ascot.
Star Of Lady M reversed Lily Agnes form with Absolutelyflawless in the Hilary Needler, though the result doesn’t do justice to the latter who was always on the back foot after a slow start and didn’t get going until too late, running the fastest last furlong according to Course Track.
Star Of Lady M (who’d started odds-on for the Lily Agnes) will doubtless head for the Queen Mary but whether she’d even confirm form with her stable-companion Your Spirit must be open to question. Inexperienced newcomers drawn 8 or higher face a near-impossible task over five furlongs at Beverley – indeed, only two youngsters have defied a stall 10 or higher on debut since 2014 with one of them going on to win the Super Sprint and the other finishing second in the Bosra Sham.
Your Spirit was an £85,000 purchase from the Doncaster Breeze Ups and showed bags of promise considering her draw, looking a sure-fire winner next time out. Her trainer David O’Meara has a decent set of two-year-old fillies by the looks of things as two days previously he’d landed the Listed National Stakes with the only filly in the line-up, Maria Branwell.
A winner of a fifteen-runner maiden at Thirsk on her only previous start, the daughter of Mill Reef and Greenham winner James Garfield posted a decent 94 timefigure in running down the Irish challenger and clear-form pick Crispy Cat, the pair well clear on a night where there were some wide margins between runners.
Strong at the finish, the Albany looks a potentially better option for her than the Queen Mary, a race in which she might come up against Navan’s impressive Saturday winner Statuette. Second favourite behind the expensive Breeze-Up purchase Olivia Maralda, second on her debut at the Curragh the previous week, Statuette looked better the further she went at Navan and was never stronger than at the finish, all under hands and heels.
Her overall performance on the clock is hard to nail entirely as camerawork makes sectionals exceedingly hard to return at Navan, but a 93 timefigure is a high level for a newcomer and visuals suggested she looked a Royal Ascot filly.
There were a few two-year-old performances of note while I was away with two of those occurring at York on consecutive days.
In posting a 100 timefigure in winning a restricted novice by nine lengths, Bradsell followed in the footsteps of Kingman, Night Of Thunder and Toormore among others in becoming just the twentieth youngster since 2010 to card three figures on his debut. The only other of that group to have done so at York, Elzaam in 2010, went on to finish second in the Coventry Stakes, while the last youngster to have won by at least five lengths at York first time out was Repartee who missed Ascot but went on to finish third in the Gimcrack.
Bradsell, whose overall time rating is 107 after sectionals are incorporated, clearly demands plenty of respect ahead of the Royal meeting which makes it all the more surprising that one with so much speed should have gone under the radar at the Breeze Ups having cost ‘only’ £47000, less than the average for the Sale as a whole.
Walbank might not have won by so far – just the seven lengths this time - or run such a fast time (timefigure was 98 upgraded to 100 after sectionals are considered) but to my eyes was no less impressive.
Interestingly, the horse Walbank was second to at Ascot on his debut, Noble Style, was the most recent of the twenty mentioned above prior to Bradsell, and that race arguably looks the best two-year-old contest run all season with the fourth home that day Royal Scotsman going on to win next time out at Goodwood by five lengths.
The best of the Irish two-year-olds right now looks to be Marble Hill winner Blackbeard. His sire No Nay Never has already sired a Coventry winner in the shape of Arizona and a three-and-a-half length defeat of the much-touted Tough Talk in the Marble Hill comes out at 101 when a 13lb sectional upgrade is added to his 88 timefigure.
Away from the two-year-olds, the best performances on the clock last week came from Raasel in the Listed Achilles Stakes, Quickthorn in the Henry II Stakes and Bay Bridge in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes.
Raasel’s progress over the last year or so has been quite phenomenal and a 113 timefigure (117 overall) in defeating 2021 July Cup runner-up Dragon Symbol will ensure his days in handicaps are numbered.
Bay Bridge has made the transition from handicaps to Group races via Listed company, and his breakthrough Group win at Sandown in a 110 timefigure (121 when an 11lb upgrade is added in) suggests he may yet end up there with the best of Sir Michael Stoute’s previous winners of the race who include Workforce and Notnowcato.
Last year’s Ebor runner-up Quickthorn posted a 110 (111 overall) under a change of tactics in the Henry II which is as well as he has ever run.
Back in the day when I was developing my interest in racing, the question of what Lester would ride always dominated the build-up to the Derby, which was then run on a Wednesday, so it’s fitting, if ever a time can be fitting in the circumstances, that the nine-time Derby winning rider passed away last weekend with the Derby just a few days away.
He transcended the sport like few others have and even now if you asked a non-racing person to identify a name associated with racing I’d wager he’d still be in the top three along with Shergar and Red Rum.
Hopefully, after a recent and embarrassing spate of mid-meeting abandonments the Derby and Oaks, sponsored again by Cazoo, will both pass without incident.
Staying loyal to the progeny of Galileo or Montjeu would have seen you land on the Derby winner in nine of the last seventeen seasons and though Montjeu is no longer around, Galileo has three colts running for him in the shape of Stone Age, Changingoftheguard and Star Of India against the current favourite Desert Crown, whose own sire Nathaniel is the sire of Oaks winner Enable.
Desert Crown has an overall time rating of 116 and will almost certainly improve given a good test at a mile and a half given how dominant he was in the last furlong at York.
Stone Age’s timefigure for his Leopardstown Derby Trial win comes in at 107 but with no upgrade after a well-executed front-running ride and Glory Daze, an inexpensive son of the sprinter Cotai Glory, seemingly showing much improved form in second, he still needs to step up a fair bit for me, which he might well do up two furlongs in trip, of course.
Changingoftheguard posted a 115 timefigure from the front in the Chester Vase. He’s clearly a much-improved horse this season and with stamina already proven appeals as a solid each-way option in what looks a more open race than the betting might suggest (and should he win which Derby winner was beaten beforehand at Punchestown will undoubtedly become a future quiz question).
Emily Upjohn beat wide-margin Newbury maiden winner Life Of Dreams by five and a half lengths in a 110 timefigure upgraded to a minimum of 113 (she was eased) when sectionals are considered and that’s a tall standard for her rivals to aim at even before the likelihood of further improvement at a mile and a half is factored in.
As I wrote in an earlier column, her winning margin in the race was the largest since Punctilious scored by the same distance in 2004 and her timefigure was second only to The Fugue’s 115 in 2012, while the Course Track sectionals indicated she ran each of the last three furlongs faster than any of her rivals despite her rider easing off.
Impressive though she has been this year, I’m not convinced her stable-companion Nashwa is potentially such a strong stayer as she is and the likes of With The Moonlight (ran a 109 timefigure in the Betfair Pretty Polly at Newmarket) and Tuesday (by Galileo, responsible for three Oaks winners already including her full sister Minding) appeal as bigger dangers, but I’ll be content to sit out what promises to be one of the most fascinating Oaks for a while.