Two bets at Southwell at 9/1 and 15/2 for our man on Thursday. Check out his selections and one other horse on the shortlist.
Recommended bets, Thursday October 15
1.5pts win Gorgeous General in 4.40 Southwell at 15/2
2pts win Robero in 8.15 Southwell at 9/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Kraka Lacking - Gorgeous General 4.40 Southwell
Kraka did readers of the column a good turn when scoring here last week, but much of the reason for going with Kraka last week was a lack of Southwell form for many of his main opponents on paper, and that very much proved to be the case, with Kraka having the race in safe keeping from a long way out. He now finds himself with a penalty to carry and in a race with a few Southwell regulars, so although he can win again, his task is a lot harder, and he represents no value at current odds, although his presence will ensure that this race is run at a true gallop.
Puchita isn’t doing anything wrong at present and should run her race again, but she looked anchored by her current mark last time, and that may be the case again, with preference for a couple of course winners who are heading the other way in the weights, namely First Excel and Gorgeous General. The former looks out of form, but will bounce back, and is respected, although the feeling is that he will be in need of the run after a break, in line with his record in the past couple of years.
Gorgeous General's record at the track stands at five wins and five places from 16 starts, and he knows Puchita well, having beaten her a neck here in February, giving her 5lb. She has to concede him 9lb today (ignoring jockey claims), and it’s clear to see he’s very well treated if bouncing back to form.
Like most exposed handicappers, he’s capable of winning only when his handicap mark allows, so three runs since returning from a break look to have been designed to put him at a peak while allowing his mark to slide to something more realistic, and it’s probably no coincidence that his return to Fibresand coincides with his mark having finally fallen below the level of his two C&D wins in February. Now appears to be the time for take-off, and the refitting of blinkers (ran well on only previous venture) and deployment of a tongue tie should help to justify the expected upturn in form.
Change of Luck? Northern Charm 5.15 Southwell
Global Melody ran out a ready winner over C&D last week, beating Northern Charm 2¾l, and with just a 5lb penalty (equivalent of around 1¼ lengths) to carry, he clearly has every chance of beating him again at the weights. That doesn’t tell you the whole story, however, as Northern Charm’s race was basically over at the gates, with a pincer movement from the horses drawn either side of him seeing him squeezed out, and he was left in a very poor position, detached from the main field with a mountain to climb.
In the circumstances he has run very well to finish second, finishing his race off with gusto, and he must surely go close to reversing the form with better luck at the gates.
Teed Up Nicely - Robero 8.15 Southwell
Easy Leicester winner John Clare brings the best recent form into the race, and it’s easy to see why he was priced up early at 11/8 given he escapes a penalty for that all-the-way win. His pedigree and run style will appeal to many as he switches from heavy turf, but both surfaces are a law unto themselves, and it’s pretty much 11/8 that any horse will take to Fibresand at the first try, let alone win on it. We can happily let Pam Sly’s gelding go unbacked, and his presence makes the market for a Fibresand specialist who is ready to run for his life. Step forward Robero, who is three times a winner on the surface (and placed a further three times). Gay Kelleway’s veteran ran perfectly well here last week after a break, and therein lies the clue to how he will run here.
Robero has a lifetime record of no wins from 11 runs after a break of six weeks or longer, but that improves as the gaps between races narrow, and his figures when returning within seven days of a run reads 158112, and that improves to 111 in Class 5 races. Those figures offer plenty of encouragement, and the booking of Ben Curtis to replace a 7lb claimer is a declaration of intent by his trainer. He’s 9/1 in a place at the time of writing, but would be no bigger than 4/1 if I was pricing this.
Posted 1750 BST on 14/10/20
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