Free racing tips: Best bets for all Thursday's meetings

Racing betting tips: Thursday Punting Pointers

1pt win The Garrison in 2.30 Hereford at 14/1 (minimum 10/1)

1pt e.w False Id in 4.00 Southwell at 25/1 four places (minimum 12/1)

1pt win Go Whatever in 2.40 Exeter at 13/2 (minimum 5/1)

2.30 Hereford - The Garrison

In the infancy of this column, The Garrison got a mention as one to keep an eye on (but wasn’t recommended as a bet, urgh) at Uttoxeter last month and he duly went and won at 16s. What I wasn’t expecting at the time was that it turned out to be a pretty hot handicap, and the form could hardly have worked out any better. Look at the horses in behind him - Breffniboy, Mount Windsor, How’s The Cricket, Radjash, they have all gone on to win since but sadly not The Garrison, who has thrown in three efforts that don’t come up to that form.

The first one is easily explained away, it just came too quickly, being just six days later but what of the other two? In truth, it is hard to find legitimate excuses, but as a result he’s now only 2lb higher than his Uttoxeter win, and is starting to look well handicapped again.

He showed plenty of promise on heavy ground more than once in novice hurdles - indeed I thought the ground would have been plenty quick enough for his win, and maybe the return to what promises to be very soft ground will bring about a better effort. Quite simply, it is too soon to give up on him, and as such, I’ll be giving him another go here.

4.00 Southwell - False Id

A race I’m quite keen to play, with little Southwell form on show. Of the course form there is, the improved Grimsthorpe Castle holds the best of, with three wins and three places from his last six Fibresand starts, but he’s got little in hand of False Id on their last two starts and the latter might be able to turn the form around.

For much of his career, False Id has raced at shorter and I was sceptical about him getting the 11f trip here two starts ago, but he got it well and was only a ½-length behind Grimsthorpe Castle at the finish. As well as he travelled here last time, however, a twelfth furlong did indeed prove a step too far, and he will be much happier dropped back a furlong here (we’ve mentioned before that the longer trip seems much more of a test than a mere furlong in distance would suggest).

Fortultous has form that also ties him in closely with Grimsthorpe Castle, but has a harder task with another 7lb on his back, and with seemingly so little between the three on form, the gap between the front two and False Id in the market just looks too big. Four places on offer for each-way bets looks the way to play.

2.40 Exeter - Go Whatever

Go Whatever will cope better than most with the expected deep ground here, and looks open to further improvement having shaped with a great deal of promise on his chase debut at Ascot last month. A winner in heavy ground at Sandown over hurdles on his handicap debut a year ago, the son of Gold Well ran at least as well when third in a competitive Grade 3 event there in February, and he was entitled to need the run after a break at Ascot.

That’s very much how he shaped, leading from the fourth until the fourth last, and weakening after his only mistake at the next fence. That was still a fine effort in form terms, the winner Demachine unbeaten since tackling fences for Kerry Lee, and looking a Graded performer.

Go Whatever is very much bred to be a smart stayer over fences, and he remains with plenty of potential having only had three handicap outings to date. He was also a point winner before commencing his career under rules, and he should thrive this season, especially in the testing conditions he’s thoroughly proven in. Caltex is also proven in conditions, so needs some respect, but he’s high in the weights now, and may be happier a rung lower down the ladder.

3.15 Exeter

The Join RacingTV Now Handicap Chase is a trappy affair, and very few can be said to have copper-bottomed claims, especially in the conditions. One who ticks more boxes than most, however, is Tudors Treasure, and he will benefit from the drop back in trip after pulling up at Ffos Las on his return. He does have placed form over 3m, but gives the impression he doesn’t really stay when the emphasis is on stamina at that trip, and a slog at this extended 2m3f is much more up his street.

In six completed starts over fences, he has registered form figures of 112241, and all three of his wins have come over course and distance. He needs to bounce back from a poor run, but that was his first outing in eight months, and may simply have been needed. He’s just 1lb higher than when beating Ballybough Nora here prior to that, and is a very fair price if his return is ignored.

The other sticking point for most punters looking at him is that he’s got to carry 12st7lb on heavy ground, and conventional wisdom is that ‘weight stops trains’, but it’s not an argument that I subscribe to. If the old adage held any water, then the win rate in handicap chases would fall off with weight increasing beyond the accepted top weight of 11st10lb, but the figures show that horses carrying in excess of that weight actually win more often than expected by the market. Express trains beat slow trains, after all, no matter how many passengers they carry.

• Preview posted 1750 GMT on 16/12/2020