Resident tipster David Massey has three bets for Thursday's racing with Tim Easterby taken to deliver at Southwell - check out his full preview here.
Recommended Bets
1pt win Royal Claret in 1.28 Newton Abbot at 4/1 (minimum 3/1)
1pt win Grand Pianola in 6.45 Southwell at 7/1 (minimum 9/2)
1pt win War Glory in 2.15 Lingfield at 10/1 (minimum 6/1)
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Claret The Toast
Given that Newton Abbot are calling a precautionary inspection for tomorrow morning, conditions are going to be testing and, when you look at the competitors for their opener, the mares handicap hurdle, you question how many of them are going to cope with it.
Memphis Bell has carried all before her in her last three starts but they have all been on good ground, and her form on heavy - admittedly when she was getting herself handicapped - does not come near that. Similar comments apply to Get An Oscar, who turned in an improved effort at Plumpton last time but seems to have deliberately been kept away from ground no worse than good for the last two years. Shapiro has a victory in soft ground at Fontwell from early 2019, but didn’t go on from that at all. She gets a tongue tie here and is fairly handicapped if bouncing back, but that’s risky. Similarly, My Lady Grey has form on heavy, but her recent improvement has come on good ground, which raises a question.
With Tom Symonds ticking along nicely (two winners last 12, and another beaten a neck at time of writing) Royal Claret makes most appeal. She’s a horse I’ve always had a bit of time for, and it was pleasing to see her bounce back after a tough season (didn’t get on with fences) with a hurdles victory in soft ground at Hereford in March. She’s not been seen since then, but her record fresh is fine, and a stamina test in bad ground is very much her thing. On historical form in this ground, we would have her favourite.
Robin Can Take Flight
An open looking contest, and you can make a case for a few. Many will stop at Jury’s Out on the Venetia Williams-chaser-back-off-a-break-in-soft-ground angle and they could be right, but he looked held when unseating at Hereford on his seasonal debut last year, and was well below that form on the only other occasion he was seen. Venetia’s horses over the last two weeks are very much famine-or-feast, with the majority either winning after travelling best or stopping as if shot after travelling best, and it’s hard to predict them as a result.
Ballybreen is still on a low-looking mark for a horse that was mopping up these events for fun last year, and the ground won’t be an issue, and Mr Washington has potential for better if he sorts his jumping out. Don’t Be Robin is going to be one of the outsiders for this, and we’d rather take a swing at him, with a few things going for him today.
His season rather fizzled out last year but his form in the winter was fine, with one of his better efforts coming on his reappearance at Plumpton, beaten into second by one that was improving at the time. He can’t have it deep enough, he stays well, and whilst he comes from a low-percentage yard, that will be reflected in his odds, and he would be worth chancing at 20-1 and bigger.
To Hit The Right Notes
Mr Carbonator holds the best historical Southwell form but he was well below par here on Tuesday night and needs to bounce back from that. The time before, he was a ½-length second to Cheap Jack here, and on a strict reading of that form, holds Grand Pianola, but there are reasons for thinking the form could be turned around tonight.
That was Grand Pianola’s first run on the surface and he travelled well on the front end, looking the winner on the home turn but the closing sectional showed that he had too much use made of him by Duran Fentiman on that occasion, kicking on a long way out, and it left him vulnerable in the closing stages (where he didn’t get a lot of room when trying to rally).
That was a much improved effort on anything he’d achieved this summer and autumn and he wouldn’t be the first from the Tim Easterby yard to take well to fibresand (the trainer has around an 8% strike-rate on turf, but that improves markedly to around 21% on this surface) then there’s the possibility of improvement to come under a slightly more measured ride. It’s also worth noting that he was racing in a first-time tongue tie (with cheekpieces replacing blinkers), which could easily be a catalyst for improvement in itself, so it’s encouraging that he wears the same headgear combination here.
Reprising Former Glory?
At Lingfield in the afternoon, War Glory, whose form left-handed over 7f on artificial surfaces reads 2122531311, can repeat his 2019 win in the Bombardier British-Hopped Amber Beer Handicap. His record of 221 over this C&D includes a career-best effort to win this corresponding event a year ago off a 1lb higher mark. He’s mostly raced on turf since racing resumed, but looked back on track when third of 9 to Johan at Chelmsford last time. He flourished this time last year, and after a quiet spell, the signs are that he’s ready to fire again, and he has the form in the book to beat some younger rivals over his ideal track and trip.
Preview posted 1800 GMT on 28/10/2020
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