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Recommended bets, October 8

1pt win John Kirkup in 2.10 Ayr at 4/1 (7/2 minimum)

2pts win Queen Of Camelot in 3.40 Ayr at 8/1 (9/2 minimum)

2pts e.w Kraka in 5.10 Southwell at 17/2 (9/2 minimum)

1pt win Geography Teacher in 7.15 Southwell at 10/1 (8/1 minimum)

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Ready For Take-off: Queen Of Camelot - 3.40 Ayr

Sometimes spotting a horse who will improve for switching to handicaps isn’t enough, and not every progressive handicapper wins at the first time of asking, for a variety of reasons. We also need to learn from our own experiences, and I hope I can do so by getting Queen of Camelot right at the second attempt. Being by Camelot out of the useful stayer Bogside Theatre, this filly was always likely to do better granted time and distance, but new rules allowed her to get into handicaps after two starts, and I napped her when she made her handicap bow at Hamilton in the summer, reasoning that a mark of 62 was likely to underestimate her.

In the event, she was far too inexperienced to take advantage of the handicapper’s largesse, although she appeared to run respectably in third, and I was happy to let her go unbacked on her next couple of starts, where she again looked to be learning the game. She ended up taking the eye over this C&D last time, however, sensibly racing close to the pace to make up for her lack of tactical speed, and although conditions placed more emphasis on finishing speed than stamina, she was plugging on again late to be fourth to Nakeeta. The form of that race is solid, with the winner luckless next time but clearly well treated on his old form, and the placed horses winning and finishing second respectively next time, albeit over hurdles.

The match practice that Queen of Camelot has gained, along with the prospect of a race which will test stamina thoroughly (three of these have been making the running regularly of late, and heavy ground will ensure it’s a test at the trip), leads me to believe that this is the opportunity to back her, while she is bred to progress well with time and distance on both sides of her pedigree. It’s a shame that her late breeder and erstwhile part owner Geoff Turnbull won’t be able to see her flourish, but Jedd O’Keeffe will be doubly keen to get the best out of her in Geoff’s memory.

Horses For Courses: Kraka 5:10 Southwell

Keep yourself in the best company, and your horses in the worst is a phrase I heard first, not entirely surprisingly I suppose, from Sir Mark Prescott, and while the meaning isn’t quite the same for punters, we shouldn’t be too snobbish about where the winners come from. A lot of people won’t bet (or claim they won’t) at Southwell because they think a British facsimile of dirt racing is some sort of affront. Nonsense. All winners pay the same, and as Mr Massey is a regular paddock-side at what is euphemistically known as “The Rolleston Venue”, you can expect plenty of Fibresand-related content here, and why not?

The beauty of Fibresand is that it bears no relationship to any other surface in British or Irish racing, and with punters and bookmakers alike having rather short memories, course specialists are often the wrong price based on lesser recent efforts on turf or even Tapeta. Such an example on Thursday is Christine Dunnett’s Kraka in the Sky Sports Racing Handicap over six furlongs.

Kraka is no star by any means, and she won’t catch many eyes after finishing out the back at Nottingham 11 days ago for her ostensibly out of form yard. Indeed, none of Kraka’s efforts since scoring in a weak race at Leicester in June look to give her more than an outside chance of scoring, but her Fibresand record does. Three runs at Southwell have produced three placed efforts for the five-year-old mare, and all of considerably higher marks than today’s. She races off a BHA mark of 59 today, but she’s been placed off 71 here in the past, and she is 5lb lower than when runner-up on her most recent course run in January.

She has been wearing cheekpieces on all her recent starts, but her best efforts here on the figures came when wearing a visor, and the return of more severe headgear is a positive now she’s back at her ideal venue. It’s also worth pointing out that there is virtually no solid course form on show apart from hers. Lucky Beggar ran well to be placed over C&D in August 2018, but ran appallingly in two subsequent starts here that year, and the fact he’s not been back until now suggests his trainer knows he doesn’t like the kickback. In truth, he’s rather forced into coming here, as he was balloted out of his preferred engagement at Newcastle on Wednesday night. That fact might be lost on most punters, but we think it’s telling.

Horses For Courses 2: Geography Teacher 7:15 Southwell

Another Southwell specialist it may pay to follow is Geography Teacher, who makes his debut for Kevin Frost after a spell with ‘R’ Mike Smith. He has been in poor form for a while, but hinted at a revival back here last time, his only run on the surface for Smith, and he’s an interesting recruit for Frost, who is now training from the Danethorpe yard which Mick Appleby operated out of when first dominating at this track. It’s also been home to the likes of Derek Shaw, and is a perfect location for training at Southwell. I expect Frost to do well over the winter, for all he’s not had much luck this turf season, and Geography Teacher should pay his way. The 10/1 looks fair and he's worth a small bet at those odds.

Stick In The Mud: John Kirkup 2:10 Ayr

John Kirkup is an obvious play on ground heading towards heavy at Ayr, and his lifetime record on soft or worse reads 1201121, including a win on unraceable ground here in July. It’s not been deep enough for him since, but it will be on Thursday, so he’s sure to go well, and anything bigger than 7/2 is very fair.

Posted at 1755 on 07/10/20

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