The Lion In Winter - rated 100P with Timeform after debut win
The Lion In Winter awarded opening Timeform rating of 100P - comparing favourably to Aidan O'Brien Derby winners
By Matt Brocklebank
09:07 · WED July 24, 2024
Aidan O’Brien won the Derby for a record 10th time last month, so where does his latest rising star and antepost favourite for Epsom fit in a historical context?
The short answer – having been given a Timeform rating of 100P – is that at this stage The Lion In Winter compares extremely favourably with some of the best Ballydoyle colts from down the years.
Very few will even get close to the opening figure earned by Galileo (107p) after he romped to a 14-length victory in a Leopardstown maiden first time out in October 2000, while the “always looked a bit different” City Of Troy was given an initial rating of 102P after his sparkling Curragh success 12 months ago.
Don’t forget, the Timeform ‘Large P’ symbol is still sparingly used and is only called upon to highlight certain horses the analysts feel are capable of much better form in future. So 100P really is quite punchy for The Lion In Winter, who was overlooked by Ryan Moore beforehand and for a brief moment seemed in trouble when niggled along around half a mile from home.
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The way he finished the race off, however, was deeply impressive, eventually picking up better-fancied stablemate Ides Of March and the eventual second Currawood with a couple of hundred yards to go and win going away by two and a quarter lengths, while still looking very much like a work in progress.
It’s a traditionally strong maiden that O’Brien has now won six times in the past decade and most notably landed with Australia (2013), who brought experience to the table having been narrowly denied on debut the previous month.
The following year’s Derby winner, Australia took a rating of 97P into his third juvenile start, a six-length victory over another subsequent top-class performer Free Eagle in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Trial Stakes at Leopardstown in the September, which really does help put The Lion In Winter’s first appearance in even greater context.
O’Brien won the same race again last summer, with another newcomer in Henry Longfellow. Given a Timeform rating of 97P for his length and three-quarter victory, Henry Longfellow went on to win the Group 2 Futurity and the Group 1 National Stakes on his next two starts – both over the same seven furlongs at the Curragh. The same route may lie in wait for this colt.
Going even further back, the same Oaks weekend maiden was won by the brilliant two-year-old Teofilo in 2006 and yet another Derby hero in New Approach the following year. That pair were trained by Jim Bolger but perhaps the renewal with the greatest significance as for what the future might hold for The Lion In Winter is the 2008 running won by Driving Snow.
He failed to win again for trainer Kevin Prendergast before being moved to American (it can happen) but back in fourth at the Curragh that day was a certain Sea The Stars, winner of his next eight races and sire of last Saturday’s winner.
Sea The Stars was given a Timeform rating of 90p for his debut run and the fact that he went on to achieve so much in his stellar three-year-old career, having been beaten on debut in July, has in many ways been reflected in the careers of the pick of his offspring since going to stud.
The likes of 2016 Derby winner Harzand didn't make his debut until September and was well held in fifth before being put away for the winter by his trainer Dermot Weld. Another Epsom Classic winner, Taghrooda wasn't seen until September either and had just the one run at two, winning a Newmarket maiden, while Hukum was only third on debut in September 2019 before landing his novice at Kempton in November.
Fellow Shadwell champion Baaeed famously didn't make the track until the June of his three-year-old campaign and other top-notchers by Sea The Stars such as Crystal Ocean (beaten on sole juvenile run) and Stradivarius (debuted in October and took three goes to get off the mark) were similarly slow to reach their full potential.
So what The Lion In Winter looks to have already achieved at such an early point in the year is quite remarkable given his pedigree.
It is something of a rarity for O’Brien to even train Sea The Stars' progeny and the two that may be most well known are Eminence and Psalm, who managed to amass the one win between them from 20 racecourse appearances. Clear Skies won five races at Dundalk for O'Brien and Lone Star got a few wins, too, but The Lion In Winter is only the fifth son or daughter of Sea The Stars to be trained at Ballydoyle.
Having cost M V Magnier €375,000 at the Goffs Orby Book 1 yearling sale last September and is now as short as 14/1 for the Derby a little over 10 months out from the premier Classic of 2025, it's probably fair to suggest that The Lion In Winter is just a little bit different.
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