The King George: The big questions including can Rebel's Romance bring his overseas form to the table?

• Venue: Ascot Racecourse, Berkshire
• Time & Date: 3.40, Saturday July 27
• Click here for latest racecard and free video form

Is it a good renewal?

At the five-day stage there are seven individual Group 1 winners amongst the potential line-up and they have won 21 top-level races between them. Coolmore, Godolphin and Juddmonte are set to be represented and the horses in question have won on the international stage. There are a few high-profile absentees; older horses like Passenger (due to run at York) and White Birch, while there is no Derby winner from this season in the field, but you are hard to please if you don’t believe this is an up-to-scratch King George.

So what’s the downside?

The King George earnt its reputation by being a vital clash of the generations at a key point in the season and the three-year-old challenge is threadbare. Indeed, only Sunway is entered from the Classic generation with Aidan O’Brien opting to point his Derby winner City Of Troy at the Juddmonte International at York next month. David Menuisier’s Sunway is improving, though, and he is one of those Group 1 winners by virtue of his Criterium International win at Saint-Cloud last October. He was a good second in the Irish Derby at the Curragh and he’s a solid yardstick to see where the three-year-old 1m4f horses stand against the older brigade, at the very least.

What’s the weather and forecast ground?

It is Good to Firm, Good in places at the time of writing and clerk of the course Chris Stickels watered to the tune of 5mm on the round course on Monday. Thursday is forecast to be showery and there is the potential for more showers on Friday and Saturday, but only 4-6mm is forecast to fall between now and Friday and anything raceday should be minimal unless things change. At the moment, it’s looking likely to be Good to Firm ground.

And the potential pace set up?

As is so often the case in these Group 1 contests, the pace looks likely to be dictated to by the horses from Ballydoyle. There are no obvious frontrunners in the line-up that aren’t trained by O’Brien and it depends who he runs, with sacrificial lamb and now regular pace-setter Hans Andersen likely to be in there making the running. Point Lonsdale could join him on the front end if he runs and Luxembourg will likely be prominent if he runs, too. Basically, it’s up to O’Brien and what the best scenario is for Auguste Rodin, who looks the clear stable number one and likely mount of Ryan Moore.

Which Auguste Rodin will turn up?

Auguste Rodin's blowouts won’t be the defining moments of this horse’s career with his Group 1 victories outweighing the negatives now and the son of Deep Impact fully deserves his place at the top of the market. The famous heavy defeats came in the 2000 Guineas (soft ground), last year’s King George (Good to Soft ground) and the Sheema Classic (first run for five months), so the excuses are there and it will be harder to forgive him if he bombs out on Saturday given he’s in the groove and underfoot conditions look ideal. Whether you want to be backing him at 5/4 in a tough test like this at 1m4f is another matter entirely.

Can Rebel’s Romance bring his overseas form to the table?

Even if he does you feel he will have to go up another gear to win this, but given the style of his victories abroad that is certainly not out of the question. Charlie Appleby used the shallower waters of the German Group 1s to get Rebel's Romance’s career up and running and that bore fruit at the 2022 Breeders’ Cup when he won the Turf in great style by over two lengths, a performance typical of what we have come to expect from this horse at his best. We saw it again in Qatar, Dubai and Hong Kong earlier this year as he racked up £4,500,000 for three top-level wins over 1m4f and he won those races by a combined margin of seven lengths. He hasn’t replicated the form in England but has rarely been given the chance and he’s a fascinating contender.

How big a threat is Bluestocking?

A bigger one than she would’ve been this time last year when she missed an open goal in the Irish Oaks with the race at her mercy. Bluestocking was on the tricky list after that and being a contender in a race like this looked a world away when she was beaten at odds of 8/11 at Chester, but she has matured nicely as a four-year-old. She slammed Free Wind by six lengths in the Middleton at York and then finished strongly in the Pretty Polly to beat Emily Upjohn over 10 furlongs, her first Group 1 success and a career-best effort. You would think she’ll have to travel a bit sweeter against the males in a better race, though, and it wouldn’t be a massive surprise to see the cheekpieces go back on.

What about the other O’Brien horses?

You just get the feeling this is all about Auguste Rodin getting a 1m4f Group 1 on his dance card at four and everything will revolve around making that happen. Point Lonsdale and certainly Hans Andersen look likely to dictate the pace for him if they line up and who knows if either, both or neither Continuous and/or Luxembourg will run? Continuous ran well enough in fifth in the Hardwicke to think he can improve on that performance second time up, while Luxembourg looked as good as ever in a weak renewal of the Coronation Cup at Epsom, so we’ll see what O’Brien does come final declaration time on Thursday.

Could the second and third from the Hardwicke play a role?

They went slow in the early stages of the Hardwicke and that probably worked against both Goliath and Middle Earth, particularly the latter who came from the rear in a race where it paid to be prominent. Both will have to improve quite significantly on that form to play a part in this, with Middle Earth preferred out of the duo considering his earlier form at Newbury and the potential for him to post a bigger figure if the emphasis is more on stamina this weekend than it was at Royal Ascot. The concern is it won’t be and that he’ll be exposed as lacking a gear at this level over this trip, but Oisin Murphy at least takes the ride with James Doyle on Sunway.

How interesting is Dubai Honour at 1m4f?

Well, he’s had three goes at the trip in his life and two of those have been on his last two starts including a win in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud last time out, a return to something like his best form. That win has opened up doors for Dubai Honour and the way he finished strongly there suggests he can be just as effective at 1m4f as he is at 1m2f. Still, he needs to be better again to win this, which seems unlikely at the age of six, and trainer William Haggas is unusually struggling for winners (5/54 at 9% the last fortnight) considering his exceptional standards.

Is there an antepost bet or shall we wait?

Rebel’s Romance appeals as the bet in the race but his price is tight and I wonder if we’ll get bigger odds should one of Luxembourg or Continuous run? There looks to be no advantage in striking a wager now and the percentage call has to be to wait and see. We’ll wait and see what the weather does, we’ll wait and see which horses O’Brien runs and we’ll wait and see for any late defections. Hopefully all the main protagonists line up, hopefully they race on Good to Firm summer ground and hopefully Sunway is there to represent the three-year-olds. Should all of those factors slot into place we should be in for at least a good renewal and hopefully something even better than that.

More from Sporting Life

• Racecards
• Fast results
• Full results and free video replays
• Horse racing news
• Horse racing tips
• Horse racing features
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Football and other sports tips
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.