Graham Cunningham spins through the upcoming Irish Champions Festival, with a brief nod to the St Leger, in his own inimitable style.
No time for losers ‘cause we are the Irish Champions
It’s hard to think of a world-class G1 race that has provided more ‘what might have been’ moments this century than the Irish Champion Stakes.
Leopardstown’s September showpiece provided one of the great tactical heists when a canny Godolphin plan helped Frankie and Fantastic Light floor Galileo (4/11) in 2001 and bad beats for short- priced stars have been part of the ICS soundtrack ever since.
Using Sholokhov as a runaway hare for Hawk Wing (8/11) 12 months later worked perfectly - until Dettori pounced close home on the mercurial Grandera.
Mick Kinane didn’t think twice before slamming the door on the luckless Falbrav and Darryll Holland as High Chaparral snagged the fifth of his six G1 wins in 2003.
And Joseph’s decision to loop and swoop earlier than ideal on Australia (30/100) in 2014 backfired when a certain R L Moore powered The Grey Gatsby past him in the final strides.
Clinical Coolmore go on and on and on and on...
Now, just because a horse looks unlucky one day doesn’t mean roles will be reversed in a rematch.
Falbrav came up short behind High Chaparral again when they clashed in the Breeders’ Cup Turf at Santa Anita in October of ’03.
And those who felt High Chaparral’s son Free Eagle was hard done by when Golden Horn shoulder charged him inside the final furlong of the 2015 ICS will recall that the margin between the two only increased in the Arc three weeks later.
But you don’t win Ireland’s premier 2000m contest twelve times – including the last five in a row - without having all your tactical ducks in a row and precision planning has helped Aidan O’Brien’s team secure a crucial edge in recent years.
Hunting Horn, Magic Wand and Anthony Van Dyck hogged the inside and ensured that Japanese raider Deirdre endured a torrid trip as Magical galloped to the first of two ICS wins in 2019.
Moore swallowed a careless riding ban willingly after St Mark’s Basilica carried Tarnawa right across the track in 2021.
Fading pacemaker Stone Age forced French favourite Vadeni to sit and suffer at a vital point as Luxembourg scored in 2022.
And the freewheeling Luxembourg and Point Lonsdale parted like the waves – leaving UK raiders Nashwa and King Of Steel in tricky spots – as AUGUSTE RODIN charged to glory last year.
Economics takes his G1 curtain call
But what does historical tactical talk have to do with the up-and-coming colt who bids to breathe much needed life into a wheezing British middle distance division on Saturday?
Devastating in a strongly-run Dante and emphatic in another G2 after a break at Deauville, ECONOMICS heads to Leopardstown with a Timeform rating of 124p after just four races and it’s hard to predict where his ceiling is.
But it’s not hard to predict that this muscular son of Night Of Thunder will be dropped out in rear again.
Nor is it hard to conclude that that a heavy-topped hold-up horse who takes time to find full stride will need to be every bit as good as the market thinks he is to give start and a beating to a Ballydoyle battalion in its own backyard.
Perhaps I’m overthinking things in banging the tactical drum so hard. After all, three-year-olds have been dominating the 2000m scene this summer and William Haggas is sure to have his latest emerging star primed for his G1 debut.
But the ICS is peppered with leading fancies who couldn’t quite cut it in the heat of a complex battle. And, for all that he adds hugely to the race’s interest rate, the numbers surely don’t add up to Economics being a genuine 6/5 chance.
No bed of roses as Emperor treads the Sottsass trail
Japan will win the Arc one of these days and their latest contender is certainly bred for battle as a 2.1m Euro full brother to Sottsass, who limbered up for his 2020 Longchamp success by finishing fourth to Magical in the ICS.
But how good is SHIN EMPEROR?
Recent history – and the exploits of Lys Gracieux, Loves Only You, Marche Lorraine, Panthalassa, Bathrat Leon and Forever Young – marks the charismatic Yoshito Yahagi as one of the world’s great global target trainers.
But Shin Emperor didn’t look an ace, staying on while carrying his head a bit awkwardly, in the Japanese Guineas and Derby.
And for all that he adds a bit of the global stardust Leopardstown has been seeking for its biggest prize, anything better than big brother achieved would be a bonus ahead of the Emperor’s own Arc bid.
And no pleasure cruise for those held up...
Right then, we’ve established that Economics has more on his plate than current odds suggest if he’s ridden from the rear and that Shin Emperor’s Japanese form falls short of what’s usually needed to win at this level.
And we’ve settled on an ICS pace map that sees Ballydoyle footsoldiers replicating last year’s gameplan by getting out sharply to set even fractions with the heavy hitting O’Brien stars poised to stalk and pounce in behind.
But then it gets tricky.
It’s odd to see Luxembourg languishing among the 16/1 shots given that he's finished first and second in the last two renewals, while Los Angeles has yet to prove he’s high class over 2000m but his idle style makes him a tricky one to discount.
I’ve had my share of sand kicked in my face...
Then we come to the most mercurial star in the Ballydoyle firmament.
Auguste Rodin has six G1 scores and four blowouts on his dance card since arriving on the big stage on this card two years ago and this looks like being the first time he won’t jump as jolly since Arrest (yes, Arrest) shaded him for favouritism in last year’s Derby.
His last two runs – a thrilling Prince of Wales’s Stakes success followed by a tame King George retreat – encapsulate his career neatly and Aidan now has the task of getting Gus to bounce back yet again.
Do I buy the theory that he was kyboshed by “cut-up, soft ground” on the inside in the King George? Hmm, only up to a point.
And would I be shocked were he to check out again if he meets adversity? Of course not.
But we know a peak-form Auguste Rodin is a fine fit for Leopardstown. And, with Moore aboard and stablemates to lay the groundwork, Auguste Rodin will almost certainly secure the saloon passage that has hallmarked every one of his major victories.
But I’ve come through…
Aidan declined to give the RP’s David Jennings the ‘working better than ever’ line he was angling for at the latest Ballydoyle media shindig but did concede that Gus “went by his lead horse very easily, where usually he wouldn’t at that stage of the work.”
Add in a favourably dry weather forecast and the stage is set for a showdown that carries clear echoes of one that will play out in Philadelphia’s National Consitution Center on Tuesday night.
Economics is in the Harris role as the exciting young challenger, unproven in the heat of a global spotlight but promising a bright new future with huge momentum behind him.
And, for all that the comparison is a strange one, Gus returns as the erratic but strangely charismatic older celeb who has been there before and still charms a huge chunk of the population.
Election junkies won’t need reminding that the race for the White House is a toss-up but the race for the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes is 6/5 the challenger and 4/1 the previous winner.
The colt in the Trump role looks the way to go at those odds. But this is a compelling battle on multiple levels – just the sort of contest that can make Leopardstown great again.
Time for another blast from the Hannon canon
I’ve watched last year’s ICS a dozen times without being sure what race caller Jerry Hannon was bellowing into the microphone as Gus thwarted the rallying Luxembourg and late-charging Nashwa.
“Augusta (sic) Rodin is in Champion spirit" would be my best guess and that rasping roar went straight in at number 5 on my list of ‘Favourite Hannon Moments.’
At four on the FHM list is Flatfoot Boogie in a humble maiden hurdle at Cork in August 2013.
The great Jer has nominated this as an unforgettably painful tongue twister and his “Blat, Flat, Bat But Boogie” payoff as the winner hit the line was a belter.
A non-mover at three is the Leopardstown Chase of 2022.
Birchdale kicked on two out when Jer made a choking sound not dissimilar to a death rattle. Three seconds of radio silence ensued – presumably with a hard press on the cough button- but the golden tonsils soon recovered to call the winner home.
At two is Hurricane Fly, who always struck an emotional chord in the Hannon voicebox, never more so than with the perfect “season of all seasons” salute as Ruby guided him clear of Thousand Stars and Rock On Ruby in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle at Punchestown in 2013.
But at number one, for the fifth year running, it is, of course, the Leopardstown Chase of 2019.
Gigginstown had five in that big Christmas handicap, while JP had seven including gambled-on Fitzhenry.
The latter swooped close home in the green and gold for Barry Geraghty but nemesis came calling under Jack Kennedy and the piercing scream of “ROARING BULL, ROARING RULL!” had eardrums splitting from Foxrock to Finglas.
Aidan holds the Donny aces again
There comes a time when you accept that an old pal isn’t quite what he or she used to be and, though others will disagree vehemently, that time has surely come for the St Leger.
The ICF – that’s the Irish Champions Festival rather than West Ham’s fabled hooligan Inter City Firm – has parked its tanks firmly on Donny’s lawn in recent times and City Of Troy was never going to Donny once his Triple Crown dream died in the Guineas.
But the decision to send Los Angeles to Leopardstown rather than South Yorks is a clear blow to the Leger and, with devoted Donny disciple Howard Wright having passed on, Britain’s final Classic of 2024 has a strange feel this this year.
Correction, it feels like a Ballydoyle B Team benefit as Illinois, Jan Brueghel and Grosvenor Square already take a 75 per cent chunk out of the market.
It’s hard to argue with Illinois being favourite given that he made the idling Los Angeles work in the Voltigeur and Jan Brueghel is a tricky one to assess given that he’s unbeaten in three despite still looking like he’s learning on the job.
Blazing style means Square can shape the Leger
But, from a tactical viewpoint, Grosvenor Square provides the most intriguing angle into Saturday’s big race.
This colt looked far removed from a budding Classic winner when well held in the Chester Vase and Irish Derby but he’s been a different proposition since being allowed to blaze away at the Leger trip, only run down late by Tower of London in the Curragh Cup then bounding well clear from an early stage to bolt up over the same course and distance.
Aidan summed things up neatly after that G3 success by saying “he has serious stamina once he gets into a rhythm and it’s hard to know what to do against this horse, do you follow him or don’t you?”
Wayne Lordan is inked in for Illinois but It’s hard to know who will ride the other O’Brien Leger runners.
But it’s not hard to predict that Grosvenor Square will adopt his bombs away tactics again – and that adds an intriguing dimension to a Leger that feels more like a Carabao Cup Final than a genuine Champions League showdown.
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