Ben Linfoot looks at the opposition to Enable in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp on Sunday - can any of them step up to trouble the favourite?
- This column was amended to reflect Love's absence
Stradivarius – The Dangerous One
Ascot Gold Cup winners following up in the Arc are as rare as quand les coqs pondront des œufs, well, not quite, but only only three have completed the double in the race’s 98-year history.
They were Massine in 1924, Caracalla in 1946 and Levmoss in 1969. The latter was a remarkable horse and he actually started his 1969 season over seven furlongs in the Gladness Stakes before he took in more traditional races, for a stayer, like the Prix du Cadran.
His four-length Gold Cup success at Ascot was triumphant, but the Arc trip was thought to be too sharp for him and he was sent off at 52/1 in Paris, before he beat the King George winner, Park Top, by three-quarters-of-a-length.
Stradivarius was an even easier winner of this year’s Gold Cup, a 10-length cruise in the softest ground he’s ever faced. Indeed, his form figures in soft ground now read 3-1-1-1, dispelling notions of him being a top of the ground horse.
So the Parisian rain turning the ground testing is very much in his favour. The more that his stamina is brought into play, the more his chance increases, but he is not a slow stayer. He won the Goodwood Cup off a crawl and displayed his potential for this trip in the Prix Foy, when beaten a short neck by Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck off another sedate gallop.
They may be rare, but here we have a Gold Cup winner with a massive shout. There are holes to be picked in the chances of Enable (see the cons in this feature) and Stradivarius heads the best of the rest, there is no doubt.
The only question now is, after a market plunge, do you want to be with him at a top-price 15/2? For me, he’s gone from the value in the race to the right and correct odds but, betting aside, if there’s one horse in the race that can trouble the big two, it’s Stradivarius.
Serpentine – The Supplemented One
Aidan O’Brien supplemented Serpentine for the Arc on Wednesday and he adds a vital element to the race.
It would’ve been a shame to see such a devastating Derby winner miss this engagement and, being an old romantic, with a great fondness of the Epsom Classic, I would love to see Serpentine follow in the hoofprints of Sinndar, Sea The Stars, Workforce and Golden Horn as a 21st century Derby and Arc winner.
He does have to prove himself somewhat, still, after that five-and-a-half length Derby romp. Can he do it when he’s not given so much rope up front and what of this year’s Derby? Was it any good? Kameko, Mogul and Pyledriver have provided sporadic form boosts, but the jury remains out on that one.
Serpentine himself has hardly had the chance to bolster the Derby form. Seen just once subsequently, he ran well enough off a 71-day break in the Juddmonte Grand Prix de Paris when fourth to stablemate Mogul and, although it wasn’t strictly an Arc trial, he ran as if it was very much one for him.
Expect to see him go for the lead again on Sunday, along with stablemate Sovereign. It will be fascinating to see what he’s got under the bonnet if he swings for home in front under Christophe Soumillon, with Enable and Stradivarius likely waiting in the wings.
Sottsass – The Forgotten One
This time last year Sottsass was considered the main threat to Enable when she went for three in a row.
The impressive Prix du Jockey Club winner went some way to proving himself at the trip when winning the Prix Niel and the improving three-year-old was sent off second favourite at 66/10 for the Arc, where he finished a creditable third.
This year he’s twice those odds, and while his form has been a smidgen below the body of his work in 2019, he does have the look of a lurker, about to explode with a season’s best.
For starters, Jean-Claude Rouget has picked his targets carefully, not over-facing him with stiff test after stiff test, both in terms of class and trip. He’s not raced beyond 10 furlongs this campaign, and has mixed up top-level assignments with forays into Group 2s and 3s.
His last run, in the Irish Champion Stakes, wasn’t bad at all, a staying-on fourth strongly hinting he’s about to hit a peak now he tackles 1m4f for the first time this year.
It’s worth mentioning Rouget’s Arc record at this point, as he’s never won it and has had 12 goes with Sottsass’ third last year his best result.
But in Sottsass he has a horse that has prepared well and will not be inconvenienced by the ground. He has a length and a quarter to make up on Enable on last year’s run, which isn’t a lot, and he looks by far the most likely of the home contingent.
Whether he’s quite as good as the best of the British and Irish raiders remains to be seen. The evidence so far is that he is not, but he isn’t far behind, and any improvement on this year’s form gives him a chance.
In Swoop – The Overrated One
The Deutsches Derby winner In Swoop was around 40/1 for the Arc after his running-on second behind Mogul in the Grand Prix de Paris last month.
Trickles of support gathered momentum, though, and the Adlerflug plodder is now into a best of 14s, which seems surprisingly short despite a few things falling in his favour.
Every drop of rain will be music to Francis-Henri Graffard’s ears, as In Swoop handles soft ground well and he’s all stamina, with his future perhaps lying over further.
The more of a test this is the more I can see him getting into things, but whether he has the speed and the class to keep in touch in the middle part of the race is a big question mark.
I can see him finishing well, but for fourth, fifth or sixth, not the medal positions.
Raabihah – The One With Plenty To Prove
As punters scrambled around looking for Arc value in the summer holidays, Raabihah caught the attention of many.
Backed into 8/1 on the back of a fancy Group 3 win at Deauville in August, she had the look of a viable alternative to Love, with the same three-year-old filly allowances and potential to match.
What she is lacking, though, is Group One form and, as commendable as her running-on fourth in the Prix de Diane was, it’s a mighty leap to winning an Arc.
In the Prix Vermeille she had the chance to lay down a marker, to prove she deserved to be a single-figure price for the Arc, but she couldn’t take it and her odds doubled from 8/1 to 16s and that’s where they remain.
Her strengths look to be a potent turn of foot and things didn’t really pan out for her in the Vermeille with the winner, Tarnawa, better positioned to take advantage of a moderate pace.
As for the Arc, she still has some potential. She has only raced five times, after all. But she does have plenty to prove now, at this level, while the testing conditions don’t look particularly in her favour either.
Persian King – The Strange One
Now, Andre Fabre has pulled a rabbit out of the hat in the Arc before. Just last year, in fact, when Waldgeist improved on everything he’d ever done to deny Enable history at the age of five.
But at least he was a mile-and-a-half horse, narrowly beaten into fourth in the same race the year before. It wasn’t too much of a bolt from the blue.
If Persian King wins the Arc, it would be the most leftfield of all of Fabre’s victories in the race, a tally that currently stands at eight.
There is no doubting the horse’s class. He’s a three-time Group 1 winner and was beaten only by Sottsass in last year’s Prix du Jockey Club. But that was his only ever go at 10 furlongs and he looked to be simply outstayed.
Stepping up to a mile and a half in soft ground hardly looks to be within his stamina range, especially on the back of a career-best win in the Moulin, over a mile on good ground, where he accounted for the speedy Pinatubo.
All logic says this is not the race for him. But he’s trained by Fabre and ridden by Pierre-Charles Boudot. Would you really want to lay him at north of 20s with those two on his side?
It’s probably best just to do nothing and sagely nod that you knew he wouldn’t stay when he finishes 12th. And if he wins, all we can do is offer a Gallic shrug.
Mogul & Japan – The Unlikely Ones
Aidan O’Brien’s Mogul and Japan, full brothers, are both outsiders in the Arc and just as unlikely winners as each other, for my money, even though the market strongly favours the former.
It’s hard to see why, really. Mogul is a best of 20s and Japan is generally 33s, but there’s a hefty portion of recency bias applied to those odds.
Japan’s very best form is much stronger than his little brother’s. His impressive Royal Ascot win, his gutsy Juddmonte International victory and his Arc fourth, to Waldgeist last year, are much better pieces of form than anything Mogul has ever achieved.
Even his third to Ghaiyyath in the Coral-Eclipse is a level above Mogul’s best, but the problem for Japan is he’s been bang average on his last two runs in the King George and Irish Champion Stakes.
Mogul, on the other hand, has been in the shadow of his bigger brother for most of his career but last time, in the Grand Prix de Paris, he began to emerge from the darkness with a career-best effort in victory.
The recipient of a fine ride from Pierre-Charles Boudot, he really did come of age that day and it gives hope that he’s a late bloomer, who we have still not seen the best of yet.
That helps explain the siblings’ odds discrepancy, but I don’t think either have the tools for an Arc.
Japan has an each-way chance if he bounces back to his best form, but Mogul has to find more to play a starring role. I’d fancy him to find improvement on better ground around the turns of Keeneland in the Breeders’ Cup, but I can’t see him knuckling down in a Parisian bog.
The Rest – The Very Big-Priced Ones
It’s hard to see any of the really big outsiders getting into this but if there is one it’s Gold Trip at 50/1.
He’s only three, he beat In Swoop in the Prix Greffulhe and he was a close-up third in the Grand Prix de Paris behind that rival, and Mogul, denied only on the line by the runner-up.
The problem is, Mogul and In Swoop look too short in the betting rather than Gold Trip too big, and his career strike-rate of one from six would make him one of the most disappointing Arc winners in history.
Deirdre hasn’t been at her best all season and prefers faster ground, Way To Paris is an exposed seven-year-old that has never looked good enough to win an Arc, ditto Royal Julius.
The three-year-old Chachnak looks a world away from good enough on his Prix du Jockey Club 13th and then there’s Sovereign.
Last year’s shock Irish Derby winner is winless since that Classic success, his role on Sunday destined to be as a pacemaker for his better-fancied stablemates. It’s hard to see him winning, but he could have a pivotal part to play.
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