Tennis tips: Winston-Salem Open preview and best bets

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Pablo Carreno Busta in Winston-Salem Open at 25/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Arthur Rinderknech in Winston-Salem Open at 20/1 (General)

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Winston-Salem Open

• Winston-Salem, USA (outdoor hard)

The countdown to the US Open concludes this week in North Carolina where the draw looks likely to throw up a big-priced winner.

Even if the favourite wins, you’ll get 9/1 which very much goes to show how much of a minefield punters are facing.

That said, weeks such as these offer great opportunity, although the fact it comes a week before a Grand Slam adds another level of uncertainty.

Minor injuries could easily lead to mid-tournament withdrawals, while there’s also the factor of fatigue to consider – will players really want a full week of tennis in their legs heading into one of the biggest tournaments of the season?

I think the latter factor is less of problem in Winston-Salem given the relatively weak field.

Realistically, there’s no-one here who is going to win the US Open. Indeed, there’s a good chance none of these will make the second week in New York.

Only one of the world’s top 25 is here, Sebastian Baez, and he’s battling for favouritism with Argentine compatriot Francisco Cerundolo.

I’m happy to swerve both.

OK, Baez did win the title here in 2023 but in the 12 months that have passed, he’s gone just 8-13 on a hardcourt.

Clearly he has the ability to win on these fairly quick Laykold courts but I was surprised he won last year and will be surprised if he wins again.

Likewise, Cerundolo looks a bit of a fish out of water on this surface.

He’s gone 3-6 on hardcourts this season, his latest defeat being a 6-0 6-3 drubbing at the hands of Karen Khachanov in Cincinnati last week.

I’m more than happy to take on the two market leaders and will do so by picking a player in each half.

Let’s start in the bottom section, one which has lost its highest seed, Jack Draper, since the draw was made.

Roman Saffiulin takes his position in the draw and the Russian has to have a chance considering he arrives off the back of a Challenger Tour title in Cary at the weekend.

However, that also adds that extra element of fatigue and I feel he’s short enough at 14/1.

The man I’m siding with here is a proven performer both at this tournament and ATP Tour level in general and that’s PABLO CARRENO BUSTA.

The Spaniard has endured a miserable time with an elbow injury which started to bother him shortly after he won the biggest title of his career in 2022, the Montreal Masters – one of the biggest hardcourt events which is also played in August.

Following surgery on the joint, he returned to the main tour at Roland Garros in May and, understandably, it took him a while to get back to being truly competitive.

However, he appears to have reached that stage now with the last few weeks in North American really bringing signs that he could return to at least somewhere near the levels which took him into the world’s top 10 at one stage.

Back in Montreal, he beat Fabian Marozsan before losing to Holger Rune, while last week in Cincinnati, PCB saw off Sebastian Korda and Max Purcell before losing narrowly to world number four Alex Zverev, 7-5 7-6.

There’s no-one of Zverev or Rune’s class to beat this week and this looks a great opportunity for the 33-year-old to get more of those much-needed matches under his belt – he’s taken a wild card for a reason.

Carreno Busta will return with happy memories having won the title here in 2016. He’s also been a semi-finalist since, and reached three other quarter-finals to rack up a 15-6 career record at the Wake Forest Tennis Complex.

The seeds in his section of the draw are Adrian Mannarino, who has won one of his last 17 matches, and Alexander Shevchenko, another struggling this season with a 16-26 overall record.

Perhaps the biggest threat in the quarter is Marozsan but after PCB beat him just a couple of weeks ago, preference is for the Spaniard, who is 25/1 for the title. Back him each way.

Turning to the top half, I’m going with ARTHUR RINDERKNECH.

This half is full of players struggling for form, particularly on a hardcourt, but that doesn’t apply to the Frenchman, who is in arguably his best form of the season.

Since hitting the North American hardcourts, he’s reached the semis in Atlanta and the last 16 in Washington, losing to Andrey Rublev.

Then, in Montreal, Rinderknech came through qualifying to make the last 16 again, eventually losing to three sets to another top-10 star Hubert Hurkacz.

The big server didn’t play in Cincinnati last week so won’t be tired and should instead be keen to keep up his impressive form leading into the US Open.

He’ll open against a qualifier or Christopher O’Connell, a player who has won just two of his last 10 matches and was last seen retiring injured in Canada.

Then could come fifth seed Luciano Darderi, although he’s a claycourt specialist, who I’d expect RInderknech to defeat. Then could come defending champion Baez in the quarter-finals.

That’s a decent enough route through this draw and so I’m happy to back the Frenchman at a widely available 20/1.

Posted at 1330 BST on 18/08/24

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