Back in profit in the quarters and semis, Andy Schooler previews Sunday’s Miami Open final between Jakub Mensik and Novak Djokovic.
Tennis betting tips: Miami Open final
1pt over 12.5 games in the first set at 3/1 (bet365)
Jakub Mensik v Novak Djokovic (2000 GMT)
Novak Djokovic will bid to win his 100th ATP title on Sunday in Miami and, as if to emphasise the Serb’s longevity, he will do so against a player almost half his age.
In complete contrast, Jakub Mensik is yet to win at tour level and the 19-year-old now faces what may still be considered the ultimate test of beating Djokovic, now 37, on a hardcourt.
I didn’t really expect to be writing that sentence at the start of the tournament but credit where credit’s due – Djokovic has managed to dig out something close to his best level again.
“I've been trying to find that necessary and much-needed level of tennis that will put me in a position to fight for a trophy, a big trophy,” he said after crushing Grigor Dimitrov in the semi-finals on Friday.
"That's what I've been doing this week, to be honest. I've been very happy with the way I prepared for the tournament, the way I've been playing. I haven't dropped a set. I’m playing really good tennis, as good as I’ve played in a long time.”
The key for me – and indeed the man himself – has been the serve, which is firing at its best right now.
Djokovic has landed 83% of his first serves in play in his quarter-final win over Sebastian Korda, while the figure rose to 87% against Dimitrov.
Across the tournament, he’s dropped serve only four times in his five matches and faced just seven break points.
“I’ve been serving really well and hopefully I can continue in the same fashion because that definitely makes my life easier on the court,” Djokovic concluded after that semi-final.
Mensik certainly faces a tough task in breaking serve in what will be the biggest match of his career.
That’s something he didn’t manage to do in his semi-final win over Taylor Fritz.
Yet the fact he still won that contest is testament to how well he, too, is serving at the moment.
He out-aced Fritz 25-14 on Friday and, like Djokovic, has won all bar four service games in Miami.
“The return was tough today,” Mensik said after defeating Fritz. “We were serving really great today so he didn’t give me an opportunity to break him. It was just the tie-breaks for me that was the decider.”
Mensik’s serve also troubled Djokovic, to a certain extent, in the pair’s only previous meeting, which came in Shanghai towards the end of last season.
He won the ace count 17-7 that day with the first set going to a tie-break – won by the Czech – before Djokovic recovered to win in three.
Notably, Mensik only created the one break point that day, although he did win it.
The teenager admitted “it was a dream” to play his idol in that match but he suggested he would bring a different attitude to the court this time around.
“For now, it’s a bit different. I am a better player now,” he warned when previewing the contest.
Maybe that’s psychology at work but that’s also plenty of truth in it – Mensik has improved, as anyone who has watched him this week will know.
Whether it’s enough to beat one of the all-time greats, seemingly back to something like his best, I’m not convinced, although I did think Mensik might be a little shorter than 10/3 for the victory.
Still, Djokovic wins this for me and the way he’s been playing, backing the straight-sets victory – as we did in his semi-final – at 8/11 will interest many.
However, I give Mensik a better chance of landing the upset than I did Dimitrov and with the price now shorter, I’ll leave that alone and instead head to a market when I can potentially make something of those strong serving performances.
A tie-break in the match is offered at odds-against which is tempting but a first-set breaker at 3/1 looks better value.
Djokovic did get to grips with the Mensik serve eventually when they met in Shanghai but the opening set was serve dominated and went the distance.
Maybe the Serb will be able to pick up where he left off in the match and may feel he’s now ‘figured out’ the Czech’s delivery.
If that’s indeed the case, fair enough, but given the price I think it’s worth paying to find out.
With both men serving so well at present, those look decent odds to me.
Preview posted 1120 GMT on 29/03/2025
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