Another 7/2 final-round winner for Martin Mathews last weekend and he's back with a look at the state of play going into Sunday at the Phoenix Open.
Golf betting tips: Phoenix Open, final round
2pts e.w. Justin Thomas to win at 11/1 (1/3 1,2)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
It’s often said that the most important club in a golfer's bag is the one between their ears and when Jordan Spieth produced his now legendary finish at Birkdale in 2017 to land his third Major he was undisputedly far and away the toughest player mentally in the game at the time.
Following that success things started to go awry and over the last couple of seasons Spieth, who remains winless since the Birkdale triumph, has often cut a forlorn figure on the course, bereft of a working swing and any confidence, while animatedly bemoaning bad bounces and poor shots.
This week though things have changed and after shooting 67 67 over the opening two days the Texan caught fire on Saturday at the Waste Management Phoenix Open to shoot 61 and take a share of the 54 hole lead with Xander Schauffele on 18-under going into Sunday.
Whether Spieth, to quote Gary Barlow and co is ‘back for good’ it is still too early to tell, but what he certainly is, is back in with a legitimate chance of tasting victory for the first time in nearly four years.
So, how to assess Spieth’s chances? Well as the 27-year-old admitted to himself in his post-round interview on Saturday, his game is still very much a work in progress and he has no expectations going into the final day.
Add this to the fact that he is pretty much stone last for the week in driving accuracy, hitting only six fairways on Saturday, got all the breaks going with his wayward drives, chipped in from 60ft on the tenth and holed his share of tramliners, and with anyone else you’d be saying they had very little chance of backing up the 61 and getting the job done.
What we have to remember here, though, is that wayward driving, chipping in and holing tramliners is trademark Spieth of old and you can’t rule him out repeating the performance on Sunday.
All in all, though, this could prove a bridge too far for Spieth’s game in its present shape and as pleasing as it would be to see him win again I can’t bring myself to back him to do so at the general 5/2 on offer.
The man who shares the lead alongside Spieth, Xander Schauffele, is undoubtedly on top of his game and whereas Spieth would certainly take positives from a top five finish, anything less than a win for Schauffele will be another disappointment for the Californian who has failed to get over the line in over two years now.
Schauffele, who has been imperious so far this week, leads the field in strokes gained off the tee and sits fourth in putting, and with the two leaders having a three shot cushion over the players in third, if Spieth does falter, a repeat of something in the vicinity of his first three rounds of 66 64 65 would most likely be good enough. With the layers making him a shade of odds-on he is clearly the most likely winner.
The nagging doubt with Schauffele, however, and something I mentioned when siding with him last Sunday when he started in the pack four back, is that he has been unable to convert so far in his career when holding the lead or a share of it going in to Sunday. While it is surely something he will put right eventually, I am not willing to back him at odds-on to do so while there is still a big question mark over him as a Sunday front-runner.
So if we are going to pass on the two co leaders, something I am more than happy to do in an event, which has only seen two of the last ten in the box seat go on to triumph on Sunday, and memorably saw Kyle Stanley come from eight back in 2012, which of the chasing pack make the most appeal?
The pair who sit closest to the leaders, three back and in a tie for third on 15-under, are Scottie Scheffler and KH Lee, but both are yet to win on tour and while you would think it is only a matter of time until Scheffler at least does I am not inclined to chance either in an event, which has not seen a first time winner since Brooks Koepka in 2015.
I am afraid I'm going to be somewhat more predictable and go back to the well with JUSTIN THOMAS who starts the day four back on 14-under in fifth place alongside Louis Oosthuizen.
Thomas, as we know, is a master of the come-from-behind win on Sunday and he did this column a huge favour when landing his most recent title in Memphis in August when starting the final day in exactly the same position, in fifth place and four back.
Thomas started slowly this week with an opening 70, which was ruined by a seven on the 17th and when he started his second round with a double bogey six at the tenth on Friday morning, he had basically dropped five shots in three holes.
Since then, however, the 13-time tour winner has bounced back superbly going 15-under across his next 35 holes and at 11/1 he looks good value to strike in an event that he has finished third at for the past two years.
Of the remainder Oosthuizen, who starts on the same number as Thomas, is yet to land a trophy on US soil so he is not someone I can trust with any great confidence, and on this basis Brooks Koepka and the mercurial James Hahn make more appeal at far bigger odds a further shot back.
However, with the oddsmakers only paying to two each-way places I will resist the temptation to add another player and will stick with Thomas to produce another of his trademark Sunday finishes.
Published at 1000 GMT on 07/02/21
