1000 Guineas tips: Antepost preview ahead of the Newmarket Classic on May 2

By Matt Brocklebank

Horse Racing

Tue April 06, 2021 · 4y ago

Racing betting tips: 2021 Flat season antepost

1pt e.w. Fev Rover in QIPCO 1000 Guineas at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)

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The Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh and the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket are always the best trials for the QIPCO 1000 Guineas the following spring and Pretty Gorgeous almost won both of them in 2020.

Trained by Joseph O’Brien, the daughter of Lawman finished first or second in all five starts at two and went one better than her three-quarter-length second to Shale in the Moyglare when holding off Indigo Girl, Mother Earth and Dubai Fountain to win at HQ when last seen on October 9.

She really impressed on the second occasion, travelling powerfully among horses before a stylish move which took her to the front a furlong and a half out.

She may well have got there soon enough, in hindsight, but was quite comfortably on top at the line.

You’d be forgiven for assuming she was the red-hot Guineas favourite everyone seems to be talking about heading into the new season, but that honour goes to Aidan O’Brien’s Santa Barbara, who must be working out of her skin to be no bigger than 5/2 having won a mile maiden at the Curragh last September.

Granted, she did it well and beat the boys in the process, but the colt who was second is rated just 87 after five starts, while the fourth and fifth have been beaten four times since between them.

Santa Barbara is a half-sister to the Breeders’ Cup-winning duo of Iridessa and Order Of Australia so presumably the plan will be to try and win a Guineas before moving up in distance this season, but we can definitely let her go following such a price crash (she was 10/1 on March 20).

At the other end of the stamina spectrum, the Cheveley Park Stakes was won by Andrew Balding's Alcohol Free, who held on grimly in the end from Miss Amulet, Umm Kulthum and Happy Romance.

Alcohol Free was on a steep upward curve, having only made her debut in mid-August, and looks a top-class prospect but she'll have to settle much better if she's going to have any hope of seeing out the trip of the Guineas, for which she is no bigger than 14/1.

Strong preference at the top of the market would be for clear form horse Pretty Gorgeous, but she has a pretty significant question mark over her if the ground were to come up quick - having never been risked on fast conditions - and on a line through Indigo Girl and Dubai Fountain, there’s a case to be made for Richard Fahey’s FEV ROVER at much bigger prices.

She beat Dubai Fountain a length with her ears pricked on good to firm going in Sandown’s Listed Star Stakes at the end of July and Mark Johnston’s filly went on to push Indigo Girl quite close in Doncaster’s Group Two May Hill Stakes, before another solid run at Newmarket.

Fev Rover plied her trade in France after Sandown and won going away from Plainchant to justify a short price in the Group Two Prix du Calvados at Deauville, form which received a few boosts including the second winning by five lengths in a Group Three before adding a Group Two success to her tally – both at Chantilly.

PRIX DU CALVADOS 2020 | Fev Rover | Deauville | Groupe 2

The third, King’s Harlequin, did her bit too with a subsequent Group Three victory at Longchamp, but Fev Rover looked to score really cosily in the end, all in spite of getting bumped about soon after the start, which lit her up.

If that was a coming-of-age performance then it’s hoped her Prix Marcel Boussac run taught her even more about high-class competition as despite failing to justify favouritism, she emerged with real credit in fourth after twice being denied a clear run and coming home in her own time after Ben Curtis swallowed his medicine and accepted his fate close home.

She was very unlucky not to go close but had she won on Arc weekend she wouldn’t be widely available at 33/1 for the Guineas and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her step forward again massively at three back on a straight course on some nice, spring ground.

There are some lightly-raced eyecatchers elsewhere and it's striking just how short in the betting - relative to her form and experience, at least - Snow Lantern (20/1) is for Richard Hannon.

She's bred to be a world-beater being a daughter of Frankel out of the yard's 2013 1000 Guineas heroine Sky Lantern, and she showed bags of promise when second to Zabeel Queen on debut at Ascot on July 25.

She's not been sighted since but could be a genuine springer if popping up in a trial this spring, a route her trainer likes to take with most of his three-year-olds.

John Gosden's Wild Iris (33/1) is another name to conjure in the next few weeks having made a really impressive start to her career when winning a seven-furlong Newcastle novice in October. She was 5/1 that day so might have taken a few people by surprise but she's from the family of an Irish 2,000 Guineas winner and will inevitably have improved a lot over the winter.

Preview posted 1045 06/04/21

Richard Fahey on Guineas contenders (05/04/21)

“The idea with Fev Rover is to go straight to the 1000 Guineas and she’s a filly we’ve always liked. Umm Kulthum will take in a trial, either the Nell Gwyn at Newmarket or the Fred Darling at Newbury, but they are both on course for Newmarket.

As for the 2000 Guineas, we’re looking at the race for Rhythm Master and he’s likely to go there via a run in the Greenham at Newbury."