Racing betting tips: Aintree antepost
1pt win Morning Vicar in Randox Topham Handicap Chase at 20/1 (General)
There’s a quality look to this year’s Randox Topham Handicap Chase with the big eyecatcher being Lostintranslation who will top the weights if taking up his engagement at Aintree on April 9.
He enjoyed his finest moment as a novice at this meeting when winning well from Topofthegame in the 2019 Mildmay after which he resumed with a win at Carlisle before taking Betfair Chase glory at Haydock early last season.
It’s been a rollercoaster ride since then but mainly downhill, unfortunately, this time around and he was pulled-up as a 40/1 shot in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, having showed a lot more of his former self when third to Al Boum Photo in the previous year’s renewal of the big one at the Festival.
The handicapper is cutting some slack (down to 162 from a peak 173) and the Tizzards won the Topham in 2017 and 2018 with Ultragold, but there’s a fair case Lostintranslation was over-rated in the first place and he’s too much of a leap of faith now, even at 33/1.
Farclas looks to lead the charge for Ireland, though it’s worth noting Cadmium’s win in 2019 was the first time an Irish horse had taken top spot in the Topham since Cregg House in 2005.
It was also kindly pointed out to me on social media (@davidjohnsonTF) that the handicapping system may well be less kind to Irish chasers in general, certainly compared to the hurdlers, and that was reflected again in the results in the handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival.
Farclas and The Shunter were clearly the exception in that regard, however, and although inevitably nudged up again in the weights after finding only the plotted-up, bonus-securing winner too good in the Festival Plate, Farclas did come over three lengths clear of the British-based pair who were third and fourth, despite clipping heels and losing a bit of traction at a key moment.
He’s 10/1 in a place and will no doubt shorten up once confirmed but he’s not absolutely certain to line up here yet and on balance I’d want a bit more juice in that price about a horse yet to sample the Aintree experience.
Willie Mullins has four interesting contenders but unsurprisingly they haven’t been missed in the market either.
Livelovelaugh must be one of the unluckiest horses around having not won a race since January 18. He’s run several massive races in defeat since then and did hit the front quite deep into the Grand National in 2019, before stamina became an issue and he ended up finishing 11th.
Presumably this race was on his radar last spring after another fine effort when eighth to Simply The Betts (having been hampered) in the Plate, and he’s looked on great terms with himself since the turn of the year in 2021 as well. He's not easily overlooked at 12/1.
Annamix jumps strongly to land the Visit https://t.co/CGwu8dIVU3 Chase at @GowranPark1 and completes a treble on the day for @WillieMullinsNH and Paul Townend 👏 pic.twitter.com/I4j6aBHhHb
— Horse Racing Ireland (@HRIRacing) November 20, 2020
Annamix – representing the same ownership as well as trainer – could really appreciate the return to better ground and first crack in handicap company having bumped into exalted stablemates Chacun Pour Soi, Allaho and Bachasson in his three outings since making a winning return to action at Gowran in November.
He’s probably high enough in the ratings purely based on the bare bones of what he’s achieved, though, and Fan De Blues could be the Mullins entry with a bit in hand from the assessor.
He’s only won a maiden hurdle at Thurles since moving from France but performed well twice last summer and might be about to reach a new high granted some fair conditions this spring. He’s certainly looked to be coming to the boil in three outings since the turn of the year and appeared to be kept away from the worst of the (heavy) ground when second – albeit well held in the end – at Gowran earlier this month.
Cadmium had missed Cheltenham en route to Aintree too and whatever Mullins ends up declaring (also had recent Clonmel scorer Robin Des Foret involved at this stage) will merit maximum respect.
Alex Hales’ smooth travelling and neat jumping Huntsman Son is another from last week’s Plate who could really take to this sort of test on good ground, along with Sue Smith’s Ravenhill Road who looked in fine form at Doncaster, while the down-in-trip Go Another One (John McConnell) caught the eye with how he sauntered through the race before he failed to get home in the Kim Muir.
Another I can see going really well is Alan King's Senior Citizen, who had a look around the course when a creditable seventh in the Grand Sefton and returned from a winter break with a lovely run in fourth behind Umbrigado in Newbury’s Greatwood Gold Cup. He’s gone up 3lb which isn’t ideal but looks to have had the race on his radar for a little while, at least.
Preference when it comes to a selection, however, is for another 20/1 chance in MORNING VICAR, who represents a Nicky Henderson yard with an excellent Topham record.
Henderson has won it five times in all and rattled off three in a row with Triolo D’Alene (2013), Ma Filleule (2014) and Rajdhani Express (2015) not too long ago.
Henderson has four other possibles this year including Janika and Caribean Boy who represent Ma Filleule’s owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede, but it’s the lightly-raced Morning Vicar who should have more to play with from his current handicap mark.
He ran a very similar race to Go Another One in the Kim Muir, making a positive move from the back of the field to look in with a chance turning in, only for the petrol gauge to quite swiftly run out.
He didn’t stop to nothing – something that has been troubling stable companion Precious Cargo of late in spite of several breathing operations – rather he looked badly in need of a return to two and a half miles which he’ll obviously get here.
3️⃣A treble on the day! Morning Vicar puts in a brilliant round of jumping to win at @NewburyRacing. Well done to all the team at home, a big team effort @sevenbarrows. pic.twitter.com/UIfyjCPNqd
— Nico de Boinville (@NdeBoinville) November 5, 2020
Decent ground seems to suit the son of Beneficial and his all-the-way novices' handicap chase victory at Newbury in early-November was given another boost by Court Master’s win at Kelso on Monday.
Michael Scudamore’s horse could be an interesting outsider too (admittedly bet365’s 40/1 about him does look a bit of an anomaly) if sneaking into the final Topham field, but that’s not certain and he won’t be any better off with Morning Vicar once reassessed having been two-lengths fourth in the aforementioned Newbury contest.
So it's Henderson's horse who gets the nod after what looks quite a generous 1lb easing in the ratings following Cheltenham, which leaves him just 4lb higher than his impressive win at the start of the season.
Published at 1505 GMT on 24/03/21
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