Rory Delargy is back with three Sunday bets, namely a couple of fancies at Southwell and an outsider at Kelso.
Recommended bets
1pt e.w. Mister Freeze in 1.46 Southwell at 10/1 (minimum 7/1)
1pt e.w. Sezina in 2.55 Southwell at 8/1 (minimum 6/1)
1pt win One Of Us in 3.20 Kelso at 16/1 (minimum 10/1)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Freeze A Jolly Good Fellow - 1.46 Southwell
The return to Southwell might be the catalyst for a better effort from Mister Freeze, and the drop back from a mile to seven furlongs even more so. If you take his Fibresand runs at this trip, you get a record of 172231, which looks appealing.
The last of those wins came here in January, where he beat one of the likely favourites for this, The Retriever, by a neck, yet he finds himself 2lb better off with that rival today. That makes the early prices simply look wrong, and after a few spins this autumn, he should be fully fit by now.
The only worry would be the form of the yard, but the price compensates for that, and he looks a bet, especially as De Bruyne Horse, who is arguably the only one here with better form over C&D, has had historic bleeding issues (we’ve all got bleedin’ issues, I know, but his involve breaking blood vessels, meaning he isn’t at all sure to build on a more encouraging effort last time).
Spring Romance is a worthy favourite but very short at around 5/ and while he has won here and over seven furlongs on recent starts, I have a sneaking suspicion that the combination of the longer trip on this deep surface may stretch him.
Does What It Sez On The Tin - 2.55 Southwell
Sezina has 2l to find with Dyagilev on their running here ten days ago but a 4lb pull in the weights will help her cause and she still looked in need of the experience somewhat, that being her first run on Fibresand. It was still her best run to date, and despite being one of the first off the bridle, she stuck on in most game fashion to come clear with the winner in the final furlong.
In the hope she once again goes to the front, she's better drawn in stall 3 than she was last time, and now Ben Robinson knows she’ll find plenty for pressure, you can expect to see him use her stamina and try and win this early in the straight.
Dyagilev is clearly a danger once more, but isn’t necessarily the sort to put two good runs together, and Sezina has the look of an each-way bet to nothing, with some firms going four places. Kit’s Allanah is one to note in the market, having his second start since joining Chelsea Banham, and with the first needed at Kempton last time, where he still showed some improvement, and he’s expected to do better again, for all he’ll have to.
One Of The Likelier Types - 3.20 Kelso
The Borders National is one of a number of stamina tests over fences this weekend, and the field is a little weakened by the fact that potential runners have been drawn to other targets.
My eye is immediately drawn to one of the lightweights in the field, and while his form figures are uninspiring, I think it’s worth persevering with One Of Us who has hinted in the past that he would benefit from the fitting of severe headgear, and now sports blinkers for the first time. Nick Williams’s stayer has been categorised as a mudlark, but while he has one win to his name in the mud, his record when the going is heavy is decidedly mixed, with just one place in addition to his Southern National win in his entire career on soft or heavy going.
A look at his record when racing on good or good/soft reads 334415252215, which is altogether healthier, and that improves to 15221 over 3m or further on good to soft ground. He is a thorough stayer whose runs in marathon chases have arguably come in more testing conditions than he likes, and he’s fallen to a decent mark.
He would have needed his return, and the fact that Nick Williams takes him on the long journey to Kelso is a positive. I think he should be a single-figure price, so the 16/1 on offer must be taken.
Posted 1800 GMT on 5/12/20
