Free racing tips: Betting advice from leading tipster Rory Delargy

Recommended Bets: November 1

1pt e.w Brandy Cross in 1.55 Lingfield at SP

1pt win Sam Brown in 2.40 Carlisle at 7/1 (minimum 13/2)

0.5pts e.w Kalabee in 2.55 Huntingdon at 50/1 (minimum 25/1)

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Course Trainer: 1.55 Lingfield - Brandy Cross

A 0-100 Handicap in absolutely desperate ground, with firms offering you extra places? Hook it up to my veins, good people.

Global Wonder is likely to be top of most bookmakers lists after a ready win over the improving Plenty Of Butty at Plumpton last time, and you’ll not find me arguing that, at this low level, that looks like a strong piece of form and it should work out, but it was on good ground and given his other good hurdles efforts have come on top of the ground, it has to be a question as to whether he can reproduce it on the type of ground which prevails at Lingfield.

Broke Away certainly won’t mind deep ground, with his best efforts coming on it but he’s not been seen since March, and with a mixed record fresh, he may need the run. Her Dream gets a “p” from Timeform, but you can be damn sure she wouldn’t even get a rating if she was still trained by Clare Dyson. She’s been absent for two years, and while a move to Olly Murphy could transform her, the market is over-wise to such moves, and she may simply be of no account. Instead a small each-way bet on Brandy Cross looks the best angle in.

He’s only had the two starts in handicaps, finishing second on his debut in the sphere last November at Fontwell, and off the back of that was fancied to run well back there the month after. After looking a potential winner three out, he got tired very quickly approaching the last and weakened out of it over a much longer (2¾m) trip. To me, he shaped like a non-stayer, and a drop to two miles on heavy ground looks the right move. He can clearly go well fresh and won’t mind the ground, while Zoe Davidson has an excellent record at Lingfield, with a better strike-rate at the track than the more fashionable names represented here.

Several of the firms are offering extra places here, but aren’t priced up. When they do so, they will bet to bigger overrounds that the on-course books, so we will put the bet up at SP.

Unbeaten In The Mud: 2:40 Carlisle – Sam Brown

Anthony Honeyball is in great form with a treble at Ascot on Saturday, and his representative in the Colin Parker Memorial, Sam Brown is seriously overpriced based on his first couple of chase starts, and indeed his record on heavy ground, which is 111.

He wasn’t right in the Reynoldstown at Ascot in February, but had looked as good a novice as had been seen in the UK prior to that, winning a Grade 2 at Haydock by 15 lengths.

He’s penalised for that win, but he goes really well fresh and relishes the mud, and concentrating solely on the weight he must concede may be missing the point in a contest where the ability to handle conditions will be more important than mere handicapping trifles.

Fresh Angle: 3:10 Carlisle – Donna’s Diamond

Once again, we are looking at horses who can go well fresh and relish the mud, and while most fit the bill on one front or another, the pair who stand out as being best fresh are Donna’s Diamond and Mount Mews. Preference is for the former, who was runner-up in the Rendlesham Hurdle on last year’s return, and is lightly raced for his age, and in handicaps.

He’s 11 now, but as Regal Encore showed on Saturday, if you’re good enough, you’re young enough, and Donna’s Double is certainly good enough to upstage younger rivals. The complication is that Kid Commando won’t run, but remains in the market, and I’d rather back the selection when it has reformed that take the Rule 4, especially with the favourite attracting mythical support which has seen the potential deduction increase.

Extra Place Value: 2.55 Huntingdon - Kalabee

Quantity rather than quality for sure, but with 15 runners declared it’s five places are on offer with several layers. And, looking at this through my cold, soulless form eyes, you have to say that plenty of these are going to struggle to win a race again. So there’s reason to have a look and see if there’s anything worth a bet at the prices.

Unsurprisingly, those towards the top of the handicap are the ones with the most solid form claims, but at a likely bigger price I’d be giving Kalabee a second look. He couldn’t get competitive in novice hurdles and soft ground seemed not to suit him on his handicap debut at Plumpton in January, but he came back from a break to put in a better effort in a selling handicap at Newton Abbot, travelling a lot better and even when getting tired, he stuck well enough to the task to finish sixth, beaten 12l.

That was just a very low-grade handicap but it was at least a step forward and he’s young enough to improve, while he went without his usual headgear at Newton Abbot, suggesting he was expected to need it. He’s now fitted with blinkers (usually in cheekpieces), and he’s nothing like the forlorn hope the early 50/1 on offer would have you think.

Preview posted 1800 GMT on 31/10/2020

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