Stuart Williams big race preview and tips for weekend action at Kempton

By Stuart Williams

Horse Racing

Tue February 18, 2020 · 5y ago

Stu Williams thinks Paul Nicholls can enjoy more major Saturday success in the principal handicap chase at Kempton this week.

Recommended bets

1.5pt win Adrien Du Pont in 888Sport Handicap Chase at Kempton at 8/1

1.5pt win Calipso Collonges in Vertem Eider Handicap Chase at Newcastle at 8/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

The storm clouds of Ciara and Dennis perfectly depict my recent run of form. However, I'm hopeful we can bounce back to winning ways this weekend and I've pinpointed bets in both the 888Sport Handicap Chase and Vertem Eider Handicap Chase at Kempton and Newcastle respectively.

Kempton will play host a super seven race card on Saturday featuring the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase, Grade 2 Sky Bet Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle, Grade 2 Adonis Juvenile Hurdle, and the aforementioned Grade 3 888Sport Handicap Chase. The latter will undoubtedly prove to be one of the fiercest betting heats of the weekend, and I feel it may be worth siding with ADRIEN DU PONT now as he could easily be much shorter on the day.

Paul Nicholls’ eight-year-old placed third in the corresponding contest 12 months ago and he will line up off a 6lbs lower mark following a brace of underwhelming efforts at Ascot this season.

However, I'm happy to overlook the first of those outings as the talented son of Califet often improves for his seasonal reappearance, while his latest effort, when finishing a distant fourth behind Saturday’s Grade 1 Ascot Chase scorer Riders Onthe Storm, came over a trip short of his best on unsuitably heavy ground.

Adrien Du Pont has been dropped 4lbs for those runs and is now rated just 1lb higher than when scoring a decisive three and a half lengths victory over current antepost favourite Just A Sting, who received 7lbs, over this course and distance in December 2018.

The champion trainer has enjoyed plenty of success since the turn of the year and I would happily wager that he has had this race in mind for quite some time given how Adrien Du Pont has been campaigned and his clear liking for Kempton, who tend to provide decent ground more often than not which suits the Jonny de la Hey-owned gelding well, albeit he did land the Grade 1 Finale Juvenile Hurdle on heavy ground as a three-year-old.

Obviously the recent rainfall and current forecast means that decent ground is far from guaranteed. However, Kempton does drain particularly well and they are forecast dry and windy days today, Friday and Saturday, which should go some way to drying out the ground.

Paul Nicholls had nine entered originally and still has four possible runners at the five-day stage. If Black Corton takes up this engagement then Adrien Du Pont would carry no more than 10-12, which leaves him nicely weighted in such a competitive heat.

Naturally, there are dangers aplenty with last year's runner-up Double Shuffle and Kempton specialist Erick Le Rouge two names that stand out at this stage. However, the former has looked regressive of late and the latter is yet to prove his stamina over three miles. Therefore, Adrien Du Pont looks a much more solid proposition.

Cast your mind back and you may recall that I was keen on the chances of CALIPSO COLLONGES in the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase following an eye-catching runner-up effort at Haydock in December.

That particular wager dropped out quicker than a five furlong sprinter in the Ascot Gold Cup. However, clearly there was method to my madness as the winner of that December contest, namely Lord Du Mesnil, is now rated 20lbs higher after bolting up next time out - and he will undoubtedly go up further following a gallant second in Haydock’s Grand National Trial on Saturday. On top of that, the third placed Vintage Clouds is now rated 9lbs higher after landing the Peter Marsh by an eased-down seven lengths.

It’s frustrating that the horse whom Calipso Collonges finished ahead of in December won the race that I advised him for in January, and it is equally frustrating that the eight-year-old has been raised 3lbs whilst standing in his box after originally being left on a mark of 127 - such is the strength of the collateral form.

However, clearly Olly Murphy has been minding his potentially well handicapped chaser with a specific prize in mind, and the way in which he jumped and travelled at Haydock suggested that he may be well suited by a serious test of stamina.

Lord Du Mesnil had already flown by the time that Calipso Collonges began to make up ground at Haydock and if you take the progressive winner out of that race Calipso Collonges would have been an impressive winner in his own right and would likeyl have been raised somewhere in the region of 6-9lbs.

Therefore it is easy to make a case that he could still be ahead of the handicapper in spite of his delayed 3lbs rise.

The ground at Newcastle is already officially heavy and there’s plenty of rain forecast between Tuesday and Friday. Happily, all five of Calipso Collonges’ previous victories have been achieved on soft or heavy ground, so he will relish the testing conditions.

Lincolnshire National scorer Hugo 'N Taz and Welsh Grand National fourth Prime Venture are also stout stayers who possess the ability to go well on Saturday. However, Murphy is enjoying a fine season to date and Calipso Collonges ticks many boxes. He looks well worth chancing in this stamina-sapping contest.

Posted at 1400 GMT on 17/02/20

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